Israel's cloudless thirtieth anniversary is over
Many convincing victories of Israel over its Arab neighbors ( "We have passed the sands of Sinai ...". How the Israel Defense Forces were built", "HBO" from 11/17.23) discouraged them from fighting the Jews again.
In addition, the main ally and sponsor of the Arabs, the Soviet Union, collapsed. Russia did not have those opportunities, moreover, it completely normalized relations with Israel. Therefore, in the early 1990s, the security of the Jewish state seemed fully secured for the first time since its creation. Moreover, the country's own military-industrial complex was rapidly growing and strengthening.
THE MERKAVA PHENOMENON
Almost immediately after the 1982 war, the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) began producing Merkava Mk2 tanks, and since the early 1990s - Merkava Mk3. However, the Mk1/2 Merkavs, armed with a 105 mm gun, were not yet full-fledged 3rd generation tanks. They, like the early modifications of the Soviet T-64/72/80 and the American M1 Abrams, belonged to the conditional "generation 2.5".
Only the Merkava Mk3 with a 120 mm cannon and a significantly improved SLA became a truly 3rd generation tank. At the same time, many modifications were also created for all variants of the Merkav. The exact figures of their production have never been made public, in this sense, it is the most mysterious of modern tanks. The number of produced Merkava Mk1 tanks is estimated in various sources from 250 to 391 (or even 441); Merkava Mk2 – from 350 to 580 (although there is even a variant 734); Merkava Mk3 – from 480 to 780.
It is also extremely difficult to estimate the losses of these machines. The combat losses of the Merkava Mk1 in the 1982 Lebanese war are estimated from one to seven ( "Lebanon in the Arab-Israeli wars: how the country was split", "HBO" dated 05/29/20), at least six more went to foreign museums. The combat losses of the Merkava Mk2 amounted to at least five units, the Merkava Mk3 was lost at least one, but possibly five or even more.
Officially recognized irretrievable losses during the 2006 Lebanon war ( "What the history of the confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah has taught, "HBO" dated 07/17/20) amounted to two Merkav Mk2 and one Merkav Mk3 (they are included in the above estimates).
In addition, the conversion of the Merkava Mk2/3 tanks into heavy armored personnel carriers Ofek and Pereg, which are supposed to be used as command and staff vehicles (KSM), engineering and medical vehicles, has begun.
Since the beginning of the XXI century, the production of the Merkava Mk4 tank has been underway, the total production has obviously already reached 600 units and will continue. At least two such tanks were lost in Lebanon in 2006, at least four in the war with Hamas that began in October 2023, and the total irretrievable losses of the most advanced Merkava are at least 10 vehicles. But its production will continue and may reach 800 units in increasingly new versions. However, it is possible that instead of this machine, the Merkava Mk5 (aka "Barrack") will be built, or even both variants will be produced in parallel.
As the Merkava was being produced, the Magah and Centurion tanks were sent first to the reserve and then for disposal. It is unclear whether combat-ready vehicles of these types have remained in storage at least in some quantity by now. As for the "Tyrants", some of them went abroad (to Lebanese groups and to Uruguay), and from 220 to 276 were converted into the Ahzarit BMP. That is, at least in this quality, Soviet tanks turned out to be better than American and British ones.
More precisely, heavy armored personnel carriers for the engineering troops Puma, Nagmashot, Nagmahon and Nakpadon were created on the basis of Centurion – but, apparently, their total number did not even reach hundreds of units. In addition, the Namer BMP was created in Israel on the basis of the Merkava Mk4, now it is produced in the USA by Israeli order. 386 such infantry fighting vehicles have already been produced, apparently, production will continue. In October-December 2023, at least two "Intentions" were lost. As mentioned above, the Mk2/3 Merkavs are being converted into heavy armored personnel carriers Ofek and Pereg, but it is unclear how massive this transformation will be.
on the ground
Israel has mostly abandoned the classic armored personnel carriers (primarily the M113) due to the low level of security: they are used only in reserve and rear units. Israel also abandoned towed artillery: all its own and captured Soviet guns are in reserve, gradually being disposed of or sold abroad. In addition to the Merkava Mk4, Israel now produces light armored vehicles of the Wolf types (150 units were produced, two cars were lost in the war of 2023) and David (370 units), however, the latter are rather just cars. Different models of armored vehicles are produced for export.
Of the ground equipment, Israel has recently purchased in the United States only M270 MLRS multiple rocket launchers (MLRS).
IN THE SKY
The situation is not so good in the production of aviation equipment: apart from the already outdated and now decommissioned Kfir, Israel has not created its own combat aircraft. More precisely, there were plans to produce a Lavi fighter-bomber based on the F-16, but with Israeli electronics. The Americans saw this car as a dangerous competitor for their planes and forced Israel to abandon it. Currently, the Lavi has turned into the J-10 ( "Through the thorns to the fifth generation", "HBO" from 02/25/12) and is the main light fighter of the PLA Air Force (the sale of this project to Beijing turned out to be a kind of revenge of Israel on Washington).
The United States supplied Israel with several hundred F-15s (including 25 F-15I, similar to the American F-15E) and F-16s (including 102 F-16I, aka F-16D block 52). Currently, deliveries of the 5th generation F-35A fighter are underway (a total of 50 such machines are expected to be purchased, up to 40 of these aircraft have now been received). At the same time, three dozen early F-16A/B returned to the United States for the aviation PMCs Top Aces ( "Private threat hanging in the air", "HBO" from 11/18/12).
In addition, the Israeli Air Force received C-130 transport aircraft, AN-64 attack helicopters, UH-60 multipurpose helicopters, a number of special and auxiliary aircraft and helicopters, and a significant number of high-precision aviation weapons from the United States. The latest M-346 training aircraft were purchased by Israel in Italy. The only combat loss of the Israeli Air Force after 1982 was an F-16I fighter-bomber shot down by the Syrian air defense (S-200 anti-aircraft missile system) in February 2018.
Israel's ground-based air defense consists of American Patriot air defense systems (some of them were supplied from the presence of the German Armed Forces) and man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) Stinger (possibly some of the old Advanced Hawk and Chaparral anti-aircraft missile systems remain in service). And also from their own Arrow and Iron Dome missile defense systems ( "The Heirs of David and their Slings", "HBO" dated 07/21/2013).
AND AT SEA
After the hijacking by Jews of the Saar-3 missile boats already paid for by Israel from France in 1969, all the following surface ships and boats of the Israeli Navy were built in Israel itself or in the United States. They are armed with American anti-ship missiles (PKR) "Harpoon", their own PKR "Gabriel" and SAM "Barak", Italian artillery.
To date, all Saar-2/3/4 type missile boats have been sunk as targets or sold abroad, only eight Saar-4.5 type boats have been preserved, which were built at Israeli shipyards for a very long time – from 1981 to 2003. They were supplemented by corvettes (with armament almost at the level of a destroyer) of the Saar-5 type, designed in Israel, but built in the United States (like the Namer BMP). In July 2006, the Hanit corvette of this type was damaged by Hezbollah launched from the shore of the Iranian Nur missile defense system (a copy of the Chinese S-802), but quickly returned to service.
All Israeli submarines have been built in Germany since the 1970s, and at more advanced designs and lower prices than for the German Navy itself. However, now Germany is building surface ships for Israel – corvettes of the Saar-6 type with the size of a frigate and even more powerful weapons than the Saar-5.
ARMS EXPORTS
In the 21st century, Israel has become one of the largest arms exporters, and the number of buyers of its weapons is very large. These are developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, as well as developed countries, including the United States, Russia, and China. Israel is actively selling used equipment, as well as exporting new systems – armored vehicles, self-propelled guns, combat and reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), light transport aircraft, patrol boats.
The most important item of Israeli exports is a variety of military electronics (radar stations for various purposes, weapon control systems, etc., etc.). In addition, it actively sells a variety of missiles abroad.
Jewish engineers and designers have been very successful in combining Western and Soviet-Russian developments, which is why Israeli weapons are popular all over the world, including in the post-Soviet space.
Its main buyer among the countries of the former USSR is Azerbaijan ( "What is behind the agreements between Armenia and Azerbaijan", "HBO" dated 06/02/23). Israeli weapons became one of the most important factors of the Azerbaijani victory over Armenia in 2020 ( "Armenia-Azerbaijan: 26 years later", "HBO" dated 11/27/20) with the final by finishing off the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic three years later.
NEW TIMES
During the battles with Hamas in October-December 2023, the IDF irretrievably lost at least five Merkava tanks (one Mk2, four Mk4), two Namer and one Ahzarit infantry fighting vehicles, two M113 armored personnel carriers, two Wolf armored vehicles.
In addition, on October 7, at military bases near the border with the Gaza Strip, Palestinian militants captured 12 Merkavs, 15 Namers, 11 Ahzarites, two Naghmahons, 11 M113s (as well as one KShM M577 and two M548 transporters), 10 Davids, two Wolfs. Hamas has not recorded the use of at least some of the captured vehicles for their intended purpose. Even if all captured armored vehicles were burned, these losses are not critical for the IDF. But the blow to her reputation has been dealt the strongest. Reputation takes a long time to build, but it is lost quickly.
Footage from the scene of the fighting in Gaza shows that "on the Ukrainian fronts" Jews would have had a very hard time, regardless of whether the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation or the Armed Forces of Ukraine would have turned out to be their opponents.
In the short term, these circumstances, of course, do not threaten the existence of Israel. And what will happen in the long term depends entirely on the Israelis themselves. Who should rely not on the United States, but solely on themselves. And draw conclusions from what is happening.
Alexander Khramchikhin
Alexander Anatolyevich Khramchikhin is an independent military expert.