The web resource "Naval News" published an interesting material by Daehan Lee "Prospect: CVX And K-SSN In South Korea's New Administration" ("Perspective: CVX and K-SSN under the new South Korean administration"), in which it is reported that after the election of the new president of South Korea, Yun Sokel, his administration, apparently, will review the ambitious design and construction program initiated by the previous leadership for the CVX light aircraft carrier for the South Korean Navy.
Image of the advanced design of the promising South Korean aircraft carrier CVX, proposed by Hyundai Heavy Industries Corporation (HHI) (c) Hyundai Heavy Industries
Neighboring countries with South Korea are accelerating the acquisition of aircraft carriers, amid the ongoing provocations and belligerence of North Korea against the West and South Korea. Japan has converted an Izumo-type helicopter carrier into a light aircraft carrier, while the People's Republic of China already has two Liaoning-type aircraft carriers, and is also building two additional large aircraft carriers, which are reportedly possibly equivalent to the Nimitz-type aircraft carriers of the US Navy.
Faced with these potential security threats that come from the rise of neighboring countries militarily, the Ministry of National Defense of South Korea and the Blue House [residence of the President of South Korea], headed by outgoing President Moon Jae-in, officially published a medium-term national defense plan last August, in which it was stated that Seoul would acquire a light aircraft carrier with a displacement of 30,000 tons by 2033 as part of its CVX program. It was planned to spend 2.6 trillion South Korean won [$2.04 billion] on the construction of this ship. The two largest shipbuilding corporations Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) and Daewoo Shipbuilding and Maritime Engineering (DSME), teaming up, respectively, with Western companies Babcock International and Fincantieri, entered into competition with each other to get this government contract.
So far, experts in support of the CVX program have emphasized the need for South Korean aircraft carriers due to the growing importance of maritime security near the waters surrounding South Korea, the presence of conflict zones, including the South China Sea, and Japan's territorial claims to the island of Dokdo. CVX opponents talk about the absurdity of an aircraft carrier, given the naval power of neighboring states and the cost and time to create it.
CVX under crossfire
Most importantly, the prospect of an ambitious CVX program for the South Korean Navy is now becoming increasingly dim. Since conservative candidate Yun Sokel from the People's Power Party was elected as the new president in the presidential elections on March 9 this year after the liberal administration of Moon Jae-in, the CVX program, which has faced harsh criticism, seems to be nearing its end.
The program has already experienced ups and downs, especially during the discussion of the budget in the National Assembly, where the then ruling Democratic Party and the conservative party "Power of the People" clashed on this issue. The final plan was to allow the program to continue by starting technical design. But the recent regime change from Moon Jae-in to Yun Sokel will certainly bring general changes in the defense policy of the new administration, increasing skepticism about the further continuation of CVX, since the People's Power party, which maintained a negative position on the light aircraft carrier acquisition program, received the presidency and became the new ruling party.
When Ahn Cheolsu, the current head of Yoon's presidential transition team, agreed to withdraw his candidacy in favor of Yoon during the presidential race, he said: "There would be synergy to create a better solution for South Korea if we could discuss what is more necessary - a light aircraft carrier or a multifunctional fighter." This gives more weight to the decision in favor of acquiring fighter jets, such as the F-35 and KF-21, rather than an aircraft carrier.
Yun's candidate for the post of Minister of National Defense, former deputy chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of South Korea, retired Lieutenant General Lee Jong-sup, when asked about his views on the CVX program, also showed caution, answering: "I know that there are different opinions about the ambitions of the South Korean Navy regarding the CVX project." General Lee also mentioned the following key parameters when considering the issue of improving military capabilities: strategic and operational concept, satisfaction of military requirements, contribution to national interests and economic efficiency.
The South Korean Navy received the green light from the Korea Institute for Defense Studies (KIDA) and the Ministry of National Defense to continue the CVX program, but last year it faced strong opposition in the National Assembly when approving the budget for 2022, and as a result, the CVX program budget for 2022 it was significantly reduced from the original 7.2 billion won to 500 million won. Since the Liberal and Conservative parties were unable to reach a bipartisan agreement at the plenary session, the Democratic Party carried out a budget plan that included the full budget of the CVX program in the amount of 7.2 billion won, which was interpreted by local observers as a result that fully corresponded to the intentions of the Blue House and President Moon.
However, the project, once considered a "very important agenda" by the Democratic Party, is unlikely to be developed by the Yuna administration. A well-informed source in the South Korean armed forces said: "Since the ruling party unilaterally pushed through the budget plan last year, the new government and the People's Power party can say that they do not want to inherit the CVX program initiated by the previous Moon government."
New administration - new priorities in defense
Another factor that undermines the CVX acquisition program is that Yun is likely to focus on reorganizing the armed forces first, as Yun may have learned from the humiliating failure faced by Russian troops in Ukraine: Russia failed because the country was always too focused on demonstrating its nuclear arsenal and how it is perceived from the outside, without caring about strengthening the combat capabilities of the deployed forces. The war in Ukraine proved that the military, capable of conducting combat operations, is more effective than a giant army, even with technically new and advanced weapons.
Applying this lesson to the South Korean Navy, Yun may prefer to make the most of existing military capabilities rather than acquire new prestigious assets such as a light aircraft carrier. This can be achieved by increasing the number of ship crews, increasing stocks of weapons and precision weapons, creating opportunities for more frequent maintenance and increasing the surfacing of ships, etc.
In fact, both the Democratic Party and the Power of the People Party have already raised the existing problems of the South Korean Navy: an increase in the number of submarines leaving the crews from 2020, malfunctions of the radar for highlighting the targets of anti-aircraft missile systems on KDX destroyers, too long a start time for these radars, an increase in the cost and lack of spare parts for them, etc. In addition, the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) may also be reduced in terms of its size, and its responsibilities may be transferred to the Ministry of National Defense or individual branches of the armed forces. Such measures to increase combat readiness and enhance combat training of the South Korean military will also prevent the acquisition of new weapons on a large scale.
"North Korea will not sit and just look at Seoul's acquisition of new weapons. It is very likely that the North will continue provocations on land and at sea to prevent this strengthening of military potential. It is quite possible that even a simple hysteria of the North may force Seoul to focus again on the security of the Korean peninsula and give priority to the development of its own missile defense system," said Robert Kelly, a political scientist and expert on the DPRK at Busan National University.
Despite the fact that a senior representative of the outgoing Moon administration controversially told the press that "we will make sure that public hearings and discussion sessions with experts are held to help the audience better understand and communicate," the acting Chief of Naval Operations (CNO - Commander) The South Korean Navy Admiral Kim Jungsu, appointed by Moon in December last year, and who stated that the South Korean Navy would continue the CVX project without pauses, will be replaced by another admiral by the new president. This increases the uncertainty for the CVX program, which is unlikely to remain on the table of the new administration. All things considered, the new medium-term national defense plan for 2023-2027, which will be presented by the Ministry of National Defense later, will determine whether large but controversial projects such as CVX will be replaced by a new government or not.
Nuclear Submarine: Is K-SSN on the doorstep?
A nuclear submarine is considered a "dream weapon" that all naval forces around the world would be interested in, because as a strategic asset it can target the enemy at any time and anywhere, either with ballistic missiles or conventional weapons, relying on a nuclear power plant that allows theoretically unlimited operational range of scuba diving. Only six countries in the world have nuclear submarines: The United States, Russia, Great Britain, France, China and India. North Korea has recently been aiming to become the seventh such country in the world by the mid-2020s, according to Kim Jong-un's address earlier this year.
Not included in this list of six countries, Seoul has been constantly considering the creation of its own nuclear submarine, conventionally designated K-SSN, since the time of the late President Noh Muhyeon in the early 2000s, but has not yet succeeded in this. Although President Moon Jae-in announced during his presidential campaign [in 2017] his intention to acquire nuclear submarines, the Blue House was quickly stopped by Washington's political considerations, the current agreement between South Korea and the United States on cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy and the lack of ways to acquire nuclear fuel. In accordance with the required capabilities for the Chang Bogo-3 (KSS-III) submarines of the third batch (Batch 3), South Korea is striving to develop this series into a nuclear submarine with a displacement of 4,000 tons.
It is reported that the KSS-III Batch 3 series boats will have a total displacement of more than 5,000 tons and carry 10 ballistic missiles based on the Hyunmoo series of South Korean ballistic missiles, but the Ministry of National Defense avoids commenting on the specific type of power plant in this series, noting that it is inappropriate to talk about it at this stage.
Winning the hearts of the South Korean public and politics with CVX and KSS-N programs
While the CVX program has led to extensive discussions in neighboring countries and among the South Korean public, the K-SSN program has also already aroused approval in public opinion on two different aspects: cost-effective enhancement of the anti-submarine warfare capabilities against the North and the need for a nuclear submarine as a strong deterrent that is capable of inflicting strategic blows. Strictly speaking, South Korean public opinion is already demonstrating support for K-SSN independent of political views.
According to the latest survey conducted by KRi (Korean Research Institute) and KINU (Korean Institute of National Unification) from October to November last year, 75.2% of the 1006 South Korean citizens surveyed were in favor of purchasing a nuclear submarine. 78.3% of the voters who support the Democratic Party and 72.9% of voters who support the People's Power Party, in general, they agreed with this during the survey.
Even the presidential election could not get around the issue of the acquisition of nuclear submarines. The then ruling Democratic Party first stated that the NPL was necessary. Democratic Party candidate Lee Jemeng promised to purchase a nuclear submarine based on South Korea's alliance with the United States and bilateral diplomatic cooperation to convince Washington to change the nuclear agreement.
On the contrary, President Yun, elected from the People's Power Party, seems to give priority to strengthening trilateral intelligence cooperation in the field of security with Washington and Tokyo, and it is expected that such capabilities will be strengthened first of all - only if China or North Korea does not act as a catalyst and convince him to purchase a nuclear submarine to protect Seoul. Since Yoon's candidacy for president, he has often mentioned the THAAD missile defense system as a model of strengthening defensive capabilities instead of the submarine or CVX.
However, as the North's insistence on testing SLBMs and developing nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines is now stronger than ever, and China is accelerating its regional naval ascent to confront the US Navy, it may be difficult for the Yun administration to resist the temptation to seriously consider the issue of submarines. In other words, it will not be easy to ignore the favor of public and political circles for the possession of nuclear submarines supported by more than 70% of South Koreans.
The candidate for the post of the new Minister of Defense, Lee Jong-sup, who actually opposed CVX, demonstrated a positive attitude towards the submarine and said: "Nuclear submarines are known to have operational efficiency because they are faster and are able to spend longer time underwater than conventional diesel submarines. We must take into account the level of the defense budget, our technical level and changes in the security environment." Li pointed to close coordination and bilateral consensual agreements as key factors for resolving the issue of acquiring nuclear fuel.
Given these aspects, the new administration is unlikely to completely abandon the option of creating a nuclear submarine, and the South Korean Defense Development Agency (Agency for Defense Development - ADD) and research institutes are expected to continue their respective R&D.
Checks by Allies and the balance of power through asymmetry
Professor of the Korean Naval Academy Yu Zhihong and professor of the State University of New York Eric French wrote an article in the publication "The Diplomat" calling on the United States to support the K-SSN program. French Ambassador to South Korea Philippe Lefort also expressed readiness last September to continue discussions with the South Korean government on cooperation or the conclusion of a nuclear fuel reprocessing deal, stressing that France has all the relevant military nuclear technologies for aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines.
Jagannath Panda, coordinator of the East Asia Center of the Indian analytical center Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, noted that Seoul may decide to cooperate with Paris in the development of submarines if the United States excludes South Korea from the AUKUS pact and refuses to transfer or support the technology of submarines to it. The Director of the National Security Administration under the President of South Korea, Kim Hyunjong, visited Washington in October 2020 to request the possibility of supplying nuclear fuel for the K-SSN, but the White House rejected this request based on the principles of nuclear nonproliferation, deciding to transfer nuclear submarines only to Australia as an exceptional case.
Professor Park Yong-joon of the Korean National Defense University argues that South Korea should focus on acquiring deterrence capabilities, including nuclear submarines, as the North continues to develop its nuclear arsenal, provided that various measures are taken at the government level to gain trust, and gaining trust from the United States is the most important - since the military use of nuclear energy is still prohibited by the mutual nuclear agreement with the United States.
Public statements that nuclear submarines are necessary both to deter the nuclear-armed North and to keep up with the pace of the naval race in the Asia-Pacific region are becoming more and more convincing. China and Japan reportedly have more powerful navies in terms of size and quality compared to South Korea, which makes it much more difficult for the latter to bridge the potential gap with them. The parallel arms race in Northeast Asia requires an asymmetric asset to compensate for different levels of potentials.
The security situation on the Korean peninsula and domestic public opinion give more weight to the construction of nuclear submarines, but huge costs and long deadlines remain obstacles. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASRI) estimated in its research that this country will need 171 billion Australian dollars for the construction of eight nuclear submarines. The nuclear submarine has so far been more convincing than the CVX in the eyes of the public, but the public may question the effectiveness and viability of the nuclear submarine program if it does not reach a certain technical level, requiring astronomical budget expenditures, which six nuclear-weapon States and nuclear submarines already have.
Another problem that needs to be dealt with is nuclear fuel, which is necessary for the nuclear power plant of the submarine. Some point out that Seoul needs to import "know-how" from countries that have experience in building nuclear submarines. Since the current nuclear agreement between South Korea and the United States limits uranium enrichment in South Korea to less than 20% and its use for military purposes, Yun will need to persistently discuss this issue during bilateral Strategic Advisory Meetings (SCM) with the Americans every October or negotiations at the Yun summit with US President Biden.
A look into the future in the bigger picture
The new President Yun, well aware of the importance of relations between South Korea and the United States, announced the preservation of a strong alliance with Washington, with eventual plans to eventually join the Quad partnership [USA, Australia, Japan and India]. Since the Biden administration has also recognized this and now has higher expectations for strengthening the alliance [with South Korea] and closer cooperation, it is solely in the will of Yun to resume discussions on the K-SSN and change the nuclear agreement. The diplomacy of the new administration should convince the United States that the K-SSN program can contribute to the stability of the Asia-Pacific region and allies.
The previous Moon administration was not as well and actively synchronized with Washington as the Quad member states and European allies, Biden created a precedent by lifting in May 2021 restrictions on the South Korea-US missile technology agreement, which blocked Seoul's missile development for more than 40 years since the 1970s, solely for the purpose of containing the rise of China and North Korea. Depending on how the surrounding security variables in Northeast Asia will spread over the next five years of Yoon's presidency, the White House's strongly negative position on making even small changes to the nuclear agreement with South Korea may change in the medium term, presumably by the end of the 2020s.
Washington's recent proactively positive change towards Australian submarines proves that the US tends to act when realistic national interests correspond to its goal of resisting the rise of the Chinese fleet at sea.
Although France reacted negatively to the creation of the AUKUS partnership, which prompted Australia to abandon the French deal to acquire diesel submarines, there are chances for cooperation within the broader framework of systematically linked multilateral security cooperation systems - NATO, Quad Plus and AUKUS Plus, with the accession of South Korea, Japan, India and Europe. The coordinator of the White House National Security Council in the Indo-Pacific region, Kurt Campbell, called AUKUS an "open architecture", leaving open the possibility that other countries in Asia and Europe will be able to participate in it in some way in the future.
The South Korean Navy has successfully conducted several underwater-launched SLBM tests since October last year, recently performing a simultaneous launch of two SLBMs with an interval of 20 seconds. South Korea became the first country in the world to deploy its own SLBMs on diesel submarines, thereby obtaining the strategic strike potential of submarines on them [the author forgot about the diesel missile submarines of the USSR Navy - bmpd]. Accordingly, along with the unexpectedly easily accessible receipt by South Korea of the Hyunmoo variant of the SLBM, public and military-strategic requirements for the South Korean submarine may increase over time under the influence of threats emanating from Pyongyang and Beijing.
An advance design model of the promising South Korean aircraft carrier CVX, presented by Daewoo Shipbuilding and Maritime Engineering (DSME) Corporation at the MADEX-2021 exhibition. Busan (South Korea), 09.06.2021 (c) navalnews.com