Turkey admitted that it cannot yet make a choice in the situation in which the United States has driven it. Washington demands that its warships be allowed to enter the Black Sea in search of the downed Reaper drone. But by doing this, Ankara will violate the 1936 Montreux Convention, the strict observance of which the Turks have always been proud of. Is there any tools in Washington's arsenal that can force Turkey to violate the Straits Convention?Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar commented on the possibility of opening the Black Sea Straits for the US Navy – so that they could approach the shores of Crimea, to the crash site of the MQ-9 Reaper drone ("Reaper", translated as "reaper").
However, the Minister's response was streamlined: the Ministry of Defense, together with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Administration of the President of Turkey, "continue to work," and the next steps "will be clarified in the near future." According to Akar, Ankara seeks to find a "reasonable and logical" solution with partners from Washington and generally advocates a peaceful way out of the situation, RIA Novosti reports with reference to Anadolu.
Judging by Akar's remarks, Washington has already sent Ankara an official request to let the ships pass. And Ankara has now either taken a pause for reflection, or is negotiating with the Americans behind the scenes.
Meanwhile, at the crash site, presumably, an operation is already underway to lift the device (or its wreckage), which began on Tuesday, immediately after the incident with the MQ-9. In a number of Telegram channels, recordings of the negotiations of our sailors participating in the search for the device appeared. "Russia will try to get the remains of an American drone that fell into the Black Sea," Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev promised earlier. SVR Director Sergei Naryshkin also expressed the opinion that Russia can pick up and study the wreckage. The newspaper VZGLYAD told in detail that our country has devices capable of lifting the MQ-9 from the bottom.
In turn, the coordinator for strategic communications at the White House National Security Council, John Kirby, admitted on the day of the incident that the United States would not be able to get to them. "He fell very, very deep into the Black Sea. We are still trying to figure out if any efforts can be made to get it," the White House spokesman said.
Professor Mehmet Perincek of Istanbul University recalls that the 1936 Montreux Convention unequivocally prohibits in this case the passage of US Navy vessels, and in principle, the American military in this area, in his opinion, has nothing to do.
"The Americans in the Black Sea will act against the interests of not only Russia, but also Turkey. As you know, this sea is the only one where there are no permanent American naval forces, and this is very important for the security of our region. If they once enter there and anchor on a permanent basis, it will be a continuation of the general confrontation between the United States and Turkey, an attempt to take our country in a pincer. In my opinion, the fate of conflicts in the Black Sea should be decided by the Black Sea countries themselves, without the participation of outsiders," the political scientist said in an interview with the newspaper VZGLYAD .
Perincek did not rule out that Washington would use a trick and ask Ankara to let not combat, but civilian vessels, also designed to lift debris, and later, already on the high seas, specialized military specialists could land on these vessels. "Our authorities will need to control for what purpose these specific vessels – for example, cranes – are sent through the Bosphorus towards the Crimea. If there is a suspicion that the vessels will participate in provocations against Russia, they must be stopped," Perincek is sure.
According to the professor, Washington will now accelerate the development of a plan for rapprochement with Bulgaria, Romania and Georgia. Last summer, Senators Mitt Romney of the Republican Party and Gene Shaheen of the Democratic Party introduced a bill requiring the White House to develop a program to contain Russia specifically in the Black Sea region. After the incident off the coast of Crimea, both senators called for speeding up the adoption of the document. "The incident indicates how important it is that we have a more comprehensive approach to the region," Shahin said, as quoted by the newspaper.ru". In turn, Romney demanded not to allow Moscow to "define the rules of the Black Sea" and called on the Joe Biden administration to prepare a reliable "strategy to strengthen coordination between the United States, NATO and our Black Sea partners."
It is worth explaining: Article 19 of the 1936 treaty, known as the Montreux Convention, allows Turkey to temporarily close the Dardanelles and Bosphorus Straits to any warships if an armed conflict breaks out somewhere on the shores of the Black Sea. In March last year, Ankara officially notified Moscow and Kiev that this clause had entered into force. After that, the Turks have repeatedly and not without pride stressed that they do not allow warships to pass any of the conflicting parties.
It's funny that less than a month ago, the United States praised Turkey for its meticulous compliance with the convention. The compliment came from the lips of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, when he was on a visit to Ankara, speaking at a joint press conference with his counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu. "Continuation of the implementation of the Montreux Convention with its (Turkey – approx. TASS) of the side restrained the military escalation in the Black Sea and helped to protect the coastline of Ukraine," the guest said. However, Blinken clearly hinted at Moscow's possible desire to transfer additional naval forces from other oceans to the Black Sea. "We take the provisions of the Montreux Convention seriously. To date, not a single warship has passed through the Bosphorus Strait," Cavusoglu replied.
And now the circumstances seem to have changed, and in this case, the pedantry of the Turks may interfere with Washington's interests.
"If the Turks agree, they will torpedo the convention itself, and at the same time damage their very important asset, one might say, historical heritage," said Sergei Stankevich, a former adviser to the President of Russia, an expert at the Sobchak Foundation. –
The 1936 document seriously "raises" the geopolitical status of Turkey, making it a kind of administrator not only of the two Straits, but also of the Black Sea,
as well as the adjacent part of the Mediterranean Sea. Thanks to the Convention, Turkey is the most important guarantor of stability in the Black Sea region. The Convention explicitly prohibits the passage of warships towards the Black Sea in wartime. If this rule is violated, even with the caveats that, they say, it is "on an exceptional basis", it will be a radical devaluation of both the document itself and the status of Turkey. So Ankara should seriously weigh everything"
At the same time, the benefits of such a sacrifice are not very clear, adds Stankevich. "Let's say they miss a couple of ships and a submarine in that direction. Ankara's relations with Moscow will immediately suffer seriously. In addition, in this case, Turkey will become the indirect culprit of a sharp aggravation of the situation in the region in the event of a direct conflict between the vessels of the Russian Navy and the American Navy, when they meet at the scene of the incident," the expert predicts.
"On the other hand, what can the Americans promise the Turks in return? Will Preacher Gulen be brought on these ships? I have to joke so bitterly. What else? Will they promise F-35 fighters, which were not given before? It is also written on the water with a pitchfork. It was gingerbread. And what as a whip? Well, the United States can use behind-the-scenes levers to influence the outcome of the upcoming presidential elections in May, will prevent Erdogan from winning. For example, they will personally hit the business of the Erdogan clan. But if the current president withstands the pressure and wins the election anyway, he won't forget anything. So the risks are too great. I think the Americans will not go too far in putting pressure on Turkey on this issue," says the former presidential adviser.
Stankevich does not rule out that connecting Romania or Bulgaria to this story will be a fallback option for Washington. "These two countries have the necessary transport. They can bring a barge to the shores of Crimea. And the Pentagon could very well airlift the missing equipment onto this barge. However, this option will take a lot of time. I think Russia will have time to find the wreckage earlier," the expert summed up.
At the site of the drone crash, disputes may arise between American and our military sailors if the ships of the two countries come nose to nose, Ivan Timofeev, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, does not exclude. "Of course, all this is not very good, in such cases there is always a risk. But such a development of events is quite expected, and since it is expected, it means that the intensity is somewhat reduced. The situation will be more manageable, predictable. Yes, there may even be bulk and anything. But at least there is a "red line" on the line of the military. This was shown by the conversations of the heads of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff. This means that the parties know what to expect from each other," the expert explained.
"The concept of "incident" implies that it occurs suddenly and develops as a crisis situation. And here the intentions of the parties are already more or less clear. Yes, difficulties may arise, mutual criticism may sound. But it won't be an "incident." The risk of escalation of tension in this case is lower, so I don't feel much alarmism," Timofeev stressed.
As the Sevastopol media reported on Thursday, the MQ-9 Reaper has allegedly been found 60 km from the city at a depth of about 900 m, Russian Navy forces are on duty in the area of the fall of the device. However, there has been no official confirmation of this information yet.
Yuri Zainashev
