What is the North Atlantic Bloc doing in the Pacific OceanOn the evening of January 12, 2023, speaking on television, American political scientist Dmitry Simes said:
"I will express a bold thought – during the Great Patriotic War, Katyusha played a big role. But you know that today there are "Natasha" – tactical nuclear charges. And I would really not want us to move from "Katyusha" to "Natasha". But if large concentrations of Leopard tanks and American Bradley armored personnel carriers went against Russia, it is difficult for me to imagine that the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons in Moscow in this case would not be seriously considered."
A politician of this level must be extremely careful in his public statements. But if Simes started talking about "Natasha", then the situation is probably a crisis.
ARMING UKRAINEOn January 6, 2023, the United States announced the delivery of 50 M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles (BMP) to Ukraine, as well as other armored vehicles.
The domestic media devoted only a few lines to this. But experts from retired colonels began to rant about the imperfection of M2.
But "Bradley" is a kind of rubicon. Until now, heavy artillery was mainly sent to Ukraine from NATO-made equipment: MLRS M142 "Himars" and M270 MRLS, 155-mm self-propelled guns "Paladin", "Caesar", Pzh-2000, "Zuzana-2", "Crab" towed 155-mm howitzers M777, etc.
If desired, in 2023, the United States and its allies can supply new projectiles for these systems, dramatically increasing the firing range.
So, for example, the MLRS M142 "Himars" can fire 610-mm missiles of the ATACMS family. The PrSM missile from this series with GPS guidance can fire at a range of 500 km. The 155-mm NATO howitzer can fire M982 Excalibur adjustable projectiles at a range of 40 km. More than 3 thousand such shells have already been delivered by the USA to Ukraine.
Already in 2022, NATO used Ukraine as a testing ground for military tests of new weapons. Therefore, the appearance of 155-mm Vulcano GLK shells with a range of about 70 km in Ukraine in 2023 is not excluded.
On May 12, 2022, Raytheon signed a contract with the US Army for the development and production of XM1155 correctable projectiles with a ramjet engine with a range of over 100 km. It is possible that the United States will conduct military tests of these shells in Ukraine in the summer of 2023.
In terms of armored vehicles, the United States has transferred about 3,200 armored vehicles to Ukraine by 2023. Until 2023, NATO supplied at least 600 tanks to Ukraine, but they were all Soviet-style (T-64, T-72 and even earlier). It's funny that North Macedonia delivered T-72 tanks to Ukraine, which were presented to it not by the USSR, but by the Russian Federation.
Deliveries of M2 "Bradley" radically change the situation. They will be followed by deliveries of hundreds of NATO-style tanks. France has already started the supply of AMX-10RC wheeled tanks with 105 mm guns. Deliveries of Leopard-2 and Challenger tanks have been announced. It is curious that even Finland is going to supply Leopard-2 to Ukraine.
In November 2022, the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced that more than 1,400 aircraft, helicopters and drones had already been delivered to Ukraine.
STRONG UKRAINIAN REARAlas, so far no expert has provided a complete list of military equipment supplied to Ukraine and intended for delivery.
According to my own assessment, only ground weapons are supplied to two or three mechanized brigades per quarter.
But the supply of military equipment in boxes to Ukraine is one thing. But when thousands of Ukrainian servicemen are trained at the training grounds of the West, hundreds of pieces of equipment are transferred to them, parts are formed from them that debug interaction at NATO training grounds, and then these parts are sent to the front along with equipment... This is the actual participation of NATO in the war.
Moreover, Ukrainian military equipment that has failed is being massively restored at repair facilities in Lithuania, Poland, Germany and other countries, and then returned to the front.
Wounded AFU are being treated in hospitals in Germany and other NATO countries. But this is an act of humanity! Holy truth. But, according to the Hague Convention, military personnel of the belligerent party, once on neutral territory, must be interned within 24 hours. This also applies to the wounded. Let them be treated, and then interned. Returning to the front is out of the question. Otherwise, this "humane" state becomes a participant in the war.
In November 2022, the media announced the creation of a new headquarters in Wiesbaden (Germany) to provide military assistance to Ukraine. It will include about 300 American officers "responsible for coordinating the support of the Ukrainian army." The headquarters was headed by Lieutenant General Antonio Aguto, who previously served as Chief of Staff of the 1st Army of the US Armed Forces in Illinois. Now he will be responsible for coordinating all military assistance to Ukraine – from the supply of weapons to the training of military personnel.
A rhetorical question: are Ukrainian officers not allowed to enter this headquarters? So let's call a cat a cat. An American-Ukrainian headquarters has been established in Wiesbaden, where military operations are planned, direct leadership of military operations is carried out, the supply of military equipment, ammunition, etc. to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
On October 17, 2022, at a meeting of EU ambassadors in Brussels, an agreement was reached on the establishment of an EU military assistance mission to Ukraine (EUMAM) in several EU countries. The first batch of trained Ukrainian soldiers is 15 thousand people, and then it will be increased several times. Since June 2022, England has been training 10,000 APU servicemen on four-month courses.
The former leaders of the DPR and LPR claim that about 200 thousand foreign mercenaries are fighting in Ukraine now. Moreover, 70% of the soldiers on the firing line are mercenaries. Some mercenaries, especially Poles, arrive in Ukraine not in bulk, but in whole units.
It's time to dot the "I". The territories of Germany, Poland, Lithuania and other countries actually make up the rear of the AFU. There are training grounds, barracks, training centers, hospitals, headquarters of the Ukrainian army. How do these territories differ from Ukraine? The only difference is that Russian missiles do not reach there.
Let's assume for a second that in 1942 Stalin would have banned the bombing of German objects by long-range aircraft, the actions of partisans and sabotage detachments at a distance of more than 300 km from the front line. Is it necessary to prove that the Great Patriotic War would have been lost?
ASYMMETRIC RESPONSESSo far, none of the wise experts has given an answer, will the Russian military-industrial complex be able to withstand the total production of military equipment in the United States and other NATO countries?
If the Russian leadership does not take effective asymmetric actions, but continues to calmly observe the supply of hundreds of tanks, self–propelled guns, infantry fighting vehicles, multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), and in the future - strike aircraft and long-range drones to Ukraine, not to react to the participation in hostilities of tens of thousands of mercenaries, then the special operation will end or defeat RF, or... "Natasha".
What kind of asymmetric responses can Moscow undertake? There are at least a dozen of them. For example, why not close the Sea of Okhotsk tightly to American ships and submarines?
The United States has been working on a "disarming strike" for a quarter of a century, when "killer boats" will destroy our nuclear submarines with ballistic missiles (SSBMS), and three thousand Tomahawks from American ships will hit ballistic missile silos and strategic aviation airfields. The Russian Federation will remain without a nuclear triad and will be forced to capitulate without the use of nuclear weapons.
Back in the 1970s, the Soviet Foreign Ministry repeatedly proposed to the United States to create in the oceans of the ZRBD - protected areas of combat operations of the SSRB. In peacetime, SSBMS should patrol these areas, but there should be no anti-submarine forces of other States. The creation of such areas dramatically reduced the chance of an accidental outbreak of war and guaranteed the inevitability of a retaliatory strike. And every time their State Department sent our diplomats to…
But under the Soviet regime, the absence of ZRBD was not fatal for the country. So, in 1980, the USSR had 62 submarines with 950 missiles in service, and the United States had 40 submarines with 668 missiles. And the USSR had much more nuclear torpedo submarines than in the USA and England combined.
After 1991, the balance of power at sea changed dramatically in favor of the United States. Now the Russian Federation has only 14 SSBs. Of these, 11 were built in the USSR. Well, the United States now has 72 nuclear submarines. The Americans have the opportunity to send two, four or more "killer boats" to monitor each of our boats. In order to increase the combat stability of Russian submarines, our admirals began to send one nuclear torpedo submarine to their protection. But this practically does not change the situation. The task of the SSB is to launch intercontinental missiles calmly and promptly, and not to participate in underwater battles.
What to do? Yes, to organize the ZRBD themselves. Where? In the White, Kara and Okhotsk Seas.
"THE INLAND SEA OF RUSSIA"Consider, for example, the Sea of Okhotsk.
It is surrounded by Russian territories, and in March 2014 the UN recognized the Sea of Okhotsk as an internal sea of Russia. The area of the Sea of Okhotsk is 1603 thousand sq. km. The average depth is 1780 m, the maximum is 3916 m. They can patrol at least 100 PLARBS there.
And indeed, for over 15 years, our SSRS have been patrolling the Sea of Okhotsk. And only from there are training launches of ballistic missiles at the Chizha test site, located on the Kanin Nos Peninsula in the Arkhangelsk region.
On March 15, 2014, the UN session recognized the Sea of Okhotsk as the continental shelf of Russia. So what? And through the internal waters, according to the law of the sea, the peaceful passage of military vessels is possible.
Suppose American ships and submarines could carry out a "peaceful passage" through the Kuril Straits to the Japanese ports of Okhotsk and Magadan. But so far, all ports on the Sea of Okhotsk are Russian. And no one is waiting for Americans there, except for calculations of the Bastion anti-ship complexes.
According to the law of the sea, vessels passing over the continental shelf do not have the right to touch the bottom – for example, to catch crabs, take soil samples, etc. But American submarines in the Sea of Okhotsk have been doing what they want since 1971.
For example, they put listening devices ("cocoons") on underwater cables connecting Kamchatka with the mainland. They raised parts of the design of the Soviet Tu-95 bomber that fell into the sea off the coast of Sakhalin, including thermonuclear bombs. Moreover, the most interesting thing is that we learned about it not from the statement of TASS, but from the reports of the American media. The Yankees themselves boasted!
On June 24, 1970, in the Sea of Okhotsk at a depth of 45 m, the Soviet nuclear submarine K-108 of Project 675 collided with the US Navy nuclear submarine Totog. As a result of a strong impact on the K-108, the emergency protection of the reactors on both sides was triggered. The boat lost speed and began to sink rapidly into the depths with a large trim on the bow. However, by energetic measures, the commander of the ship, Captain 1st Rank Boris Baghdasaryan, prevented a catastrophe. K-108 surfaced. Her right propeller was jammed, so she had to call tugs.
THE SEA IS LOCKEDWhere is the guarantee that the Americans are not now putting their underwater listening devices, including hydrophones, at the bottom of the Sea of Okhotsk?
Such American hydrophones have been standing for a long time in vast areas of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Now the world is overwhelmed by a wave of maritime terrorism. Dozens of unmarked marine drones have been attacking facilities in the Sevastopol and Novorossiysk areas since the autumn of 2022. And "TASS is still not authorized to declare" to the people who struck and from where.
Again, unknown underwater vehicles blew up gas pipelines in the Baltic. Moreover, Western politicians also blame Russia for this. Is someone really waiting for the beginning of underwater terrorism in the Sea of Okhotsk?
And what to do? Know the history!
In the 1920s and early 1930s, the Japanese set up drift nets with a length of up to 50 km or more off the coast of Kamchatka on the edge of our territorial waters. In June 1940, neutral America announced the closure of the eastern half of the Atlantic Ocean to German and Italian ships. On what basis? "This is my will!"
In October 1962, American ships dropped depth charges on Soviet submarines of Project 641 in the Atlantic at a distance of hundreds of kilometers from the coast of the United States. "This is my will!"
How can American submarines penetrate the Sea of Okhotsk? The Kunashirsky and Laperuza Straits are long (74 and 94 km) and relatively narrow. In addition, the average depth of the La Perouse Strait is 20-40 m, and for an underwater passage of a Los Angeles–type boat, at least 70 m is necessary. She has one draft of 10 m .
And American boats practically do not use these straits. And they prefer to walk through the straits between the Kuril Islands.
The Kuril Ridge contains 26 straits, of which four are wider than the territorial waters of Russia. The widest strait – Kruzenshterna – is less than 40 miles, of which 24 miles fall on Russian territorial waters (on both sides of the strait). That is, there are only 16 miles left to block.
What to block? To begin with – fishing nets reinforced with special iron structures. Like, fishermen are fishing. By the way, Chinese fishermen in the East China Sea have repeatedly protected their territorial waters from American ships in this way, including islands washed on the rocks. If necessary, steel anti-submarine nets can be installed in the Kuril Straits, as well as sea mines.
The only way for the Americans to break through the Kuril Straits is to start full–scale hostilities. And if the Americans swallow the pill, they will "lose face" and the possibility of tracking Russian missile submarines patrolling in the Sea of Okhotsk.
Alexander ShirokoradAlexander Borisovich Shirokorad is a writer and historian.