Although no one is in a hurry to transfer armored vehicles to KievThe process of supplying weapons and military equipment to Ukraine by the countries of the "collective West" (this concept is broader than NATO and the EU) is becoming not a decisive, but an important factor in the ongoing military operation in this country.
HBO has already considered the potential of such supplies. First of all, Soviet and related Eastern European equipment from the countries of the former Warsaw Pact and the former Yugoslavia (see "They don 't look at a rusty tank in trucks ", "HBO" from 22.04.22). The issue of arms supplies of Western–made artillery was also discussed (see " What languages does the god of war speak", "HVO" from 20.05.22), ground-based air defense (see " Cloudless sky over the whole of Ukraine? ", "HVO" from 03.06.22), light armored vehicles (see " Imported armored car in Ukraine is not a luxury ", "HVO" from 17.06.22), heavy armored vehicles (see " Heavy hearse races ", "HBO" from 15.07.22).
Tanks of Western models have not yet appeared in Ukraine, although the possibility of their supply has been discussed for a long time. Why is an interesting question. Apparently, the fact is that although the tank has been "buried" for at least half a century, it remains an indispensable main striking means of the ground forces. And at the same time – a symbol of the country's fighting power. Accordingly, by handing over its tanks to Ukraine, the West will pass some very important stage of escalation of the conflict, which, apparently, is still somewhat feared there. On the other hand, the West does not want to see the symbols of its military power burning in the Ukrainian steppes. This spectacle will be too strong a blow to the prestige of the supplier countries. And not only in prestige, but also in actual combat power, because the total number of tanks in the collective West is by no means infinitely large.
SCRAP METAL ON THE CRAWLERSince no one feels sorry for Ukrainian servicemen, including their own military and political leadership, Ukraine can be given scrap metal - that is, second–generation tanks, the same age as our T-62.
The most massive of them was the American M60, of which almost 16 thousand were produced in several modifications. In the USA itself, theoretically, up to 7 thousand of these machines can be stored, but in fact it is not a fact that at least one remains (not counting the obviously incompetent museum exhibits). This tank is too outdated for the Yankees to fight on it at least in some situation.
Some NATO countries definitely have the M60. Turkey has the most of them – up to 922 units. Greece has up to 671 (including cars in storage). But Greece and Turkey will not distribute tanks, because they are permanently preparing to fight among themselves, and Turkey is generally around the perimeter of its borders. Or at least require other NATO countries to replace these tanks with more modern ones.
Portugal has up to 101 M60 (apparently, everything is in storage). Spain has up to 90, of which 16 are in the ranks of the marines, the rest are in the custody of the ground forces.
All the listed NATO countries, except Spain, also have a predecessor of the M60 – M48 (in the USA itself, they are definitely not anywhere except museums). Turkey has the most of them again: 757 M48A5T2 are in service, up to 2121 earlier modifications are in storage. Greece has about 503 M48A5 in service, Portugal has up to 86 M48 in storage. The French AMX-30s remained in service only in Cyprus – 50 AMX-30V2, up to 61 cars of older modifications are still in storage. Also, the AMX-30 can theoretically be stored in France itself (up to 45) and in Greece (up to 124), but most likely they are no longer there.
The possibility of transferring German Leopard-1 second-generation tanks to Ukraine is being seriously discussed. They are in service in the same Greece and Turkey – 526 and 397 units, respectively (Greece may have up to 249 of these machines in storage). But, as mentioned above, these countries will give tanks only in exchange for newer ones, which no one is offering them yet. Leopards-1 are in storage in Germany itself (182 cars), in Norway (21), in Italy (up to 588) and, possibly, in Canada (up to 66).
All of these vehicles are very significantly inferior in their performance characteristics (especially in terms of armament and security) to any Soviet tanks of the T-64/72/80 family, which are in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Western scrap metal may be needed only to create mass, which Ukrainians are trying to crush the enemy in the worst early Soviet style.
And even for this, the supply of second-generation tanks is a very dubious idea. However, if Ukraine is ready to accept 28 ancient, albeit modernized T-55S from Slovenia (in the original version, these are generally tanks of the first post-war generation, like the M48), then any options are possible.
"ABRAMS", "LEOPARD" AND OTHERSThere are only five types of Western tanks of the third generation, of which three are purely "parochial".
Thus, the French Leclerc is in service only with the French army in the amount of 222 vehicles (another 184 in storage). Similarly, the British Challenger-2 is available only to the British army in the amount of 227 vehicles (another 75 to 158 in storage). Finally, the Italian C1 "Ariete", created on the basis of the German "Leopard-2" (it will be discussed below), has only Italy itself in the amount of 197 units. Are these countries ready to share their only "normal" tanks, if so, in what quantity, as far as it is appropriate for Ukraine itself – rhetorical questions.
The American M1 "Abrams" from NATO countries is still in service, too, only in the United States itself, but in an amount not comparable to the number of European tanks. The exact number of "Abrams" is not very well known, although the last tank "from scratch" was released already in 1996. It is estimated that the American army (the Marines refused tanks) now has at least 1,611 M1A2SEPv2 and up to 3,954 M1A1, most of the latter are in storage.
Now tanks of both modifications are gradually being converted into the M1A2SEPv3 variant, aka M1A2S. Theoretically, up to 2094 M1 of early modifications (with a 105 mm cannon, monolithic armor and a primitive fire control system) can remain in storage. But most likely the vast majority of them have been converted into engineering machines or disassembled for spare parts for more modern variants.
Of course, the Americans will not give SEP to Ukraine, but the M1A1 may well (although it is unlikely in any significant quantities). Now it is supposed to transfer 250 SEP and about the same amount of A1 to Poland, but this will be a transfer from availability – that is, as much as Poland arrives, so much will be lost from the United States.
And the Poles will not give the Abrams to Ukraine: they are just receiving these tanks instead of the T-72s transferred to Ukraine. In addition, in the "collective West", Australia has "Abrams" – 59 M1A1. Up to 150 SEP can also be transferred there from the American presence, in which case part A1 can move to Ukraine. However, Americans most likely do not want at all to show at least one burnt Abrams in reports from Ukraine, even a relatively old A1.
The German Leopard-2 was released in a smaller total number than the Abrams, but it is available in a much larger number of countries. Now these tanks exist in A4/5/ 6 modifications. A few years ago, the Germans resumed production of the Leopards-2 in the most modern version of the A7, although only for export – to Qatar (they have already been delivered), and in the future – to Hungary and, possibly, to Singapore. For the Bundeswehr itself, existing cars are being converted into the A7 variant.
In total, Germany now has 642 "Leopards-2A4/5/6/7 ", of which, however, at least half are not at the Bundeswehr, but at the disposal of the manufacturer KMW. In the latter case, these are machines of old A4/5 versions. Most likely, they are not very combat-ready and are used as sources of spare parts or for conversion into engineering vehicles.
Greece currently has the most combat-ready Leopards–2s - 353 (183 A4, obtained from Germany, 170 A6NL, produced under a German license). Turkey had one more tank of this type (only A4), but at least 9 were lost in Syria, respectively, no more than 345 remained. We can repeat once again that neither Greece nor Turkey are going to give their Leopards-2 to anyone – they will rather ask for new ones.
327 "Leopards-2" (219 licensed A5E, 108 received from Germany A4) is available in Spain. Moreover, it is she who is most actively discussing the possibility of transferring these machines to Ukraine. But, according to the Spaniards themselves, A4, which are supposed to be transferred, are practically incompetent.
Poland has 247 cars of this type (142 A4, 105 A5). This country is still giving Ukraine the T-72 and, perhaps, the related PT-91, but it will refrain from transferring Western tanks for the time being. Moreover, Switzerland, which refuses to sell weapons to conflict zones, will refrain from supplies. It has 134 licensed Pz-87s, up to 68 more in storage – but the latter are intended for disassembly for spare parts or for conversion into engineering machines.
Finland has 200 "Leopards-2" (100 A4 and A6 each, another 25 A4 – in storage as sources of spare parts). A6 have just been purchased in Holland, Helsinki will obviously not share them with anyone. But a certain amount of A4 can theoretically get to Ukraine.
Sweden has 121 Leopard-2A5 (local name Strv122), 160 Leopards-2A4 that were previously leased were returned to Germany or converted into engineering vehicles. Austria has 114 Leopards–2A4, of which only 56 are in service, the rest are in storage as a source of spare parts. Stockholm needs tanks itself, Vienna has not yet shown any desire to help Ukraine in any way.
AND A LITTLE MORE ON THE LITTLE THINGSFive NATO countries have less than 100 "Leopards-2" each.
Canada has 82 of them (42 A4, 20 A4M, 20 A6M), and A4 is considered purely educational. It is they who can theoretically get Kiev.
Denmark has 46 vehicles, of which 30 A5 and 16 A7, a total of 44 tanks are planned to be converted into A7. Another 12 to 18 "Leopards" are stored as sources of spare parts. It is obvious that Copenhagen is not spending money on upgrading its few tanks in order to give them to Ukraine later.
Norway has 39 Leopards-2A4 (another 18 are in storage, 11 of them as sources of spare parts). 37 "Leopards-2A6" – Portugal, 12 "Leopards-2A4" – Hungary. In the latter case, the tanks are used as training, 25 new-built Leopards-2A7 will become combat tanks, which will begin to arrive in Hungary no earlier than next year. In any case, Budapest will not give Kiev anything for purely political reasons.
Formally, the West has a lot of third–generation tanks - about 9.4 thousand, not counting the oldest M1. In fact, if we take into account all the political and technical circumstances described above, it is almost impossible for Kiev to get even 500 cars. That the "fathers of Ukrainian democracy" will definitely not save.
Alexander KhramchikhinAlexander Anatolyevich Khramchikhin is an independent military expert.
