Tatarstan business resource "BUSINESS Online" in the material Timur Latypov "What are we going to fly on? Minnikhanov decided to remind Moscow about the ruined "cranes" from Kazan. Even after years of harassment, the Tu-214 and Tu-334 can replace enemy Boeing and Airbus," writes that all imported aircraft are being taken away from Russia. And today it is very clear: in the new world born after February 24, our country should have aircraft of its own production and from its own components. So far, Superjet and MS-21 are seen as such, but, as BUSINESS Online has learned, Tatarstan has a different point of view - to revive civilian "carcasses". What the republic offers, some experts call an adventure, others - a wise step.
The second and last built sample of the Tu-204SM passenger aircraft (registration number RA-64151, factory number 54151). Zhukovsky, 29.09.2014 (c) Alexey Karpulev / russianplanes.net ( link )
A thoughtful step or a waste of resources?
On March 2, Boeing and Airbus completely stopped servicing Russian aircraft, including ship maintenance and spare parts supplies. The company's decision was made due to EU sanctions - on the night of February 26, a ban was imposed on the supply and leasing of aircraft to Russia. Within a month, that is, until March 26, the aircraft leased from foreigners must be returned.
It is not difficult to estimate the scale of losses for Russian airlines: today Russian carriers operate about 980 passenger airliners, 750 of them are Boeing, Airbus, there are a few Embraer and Bombardier. 531 aircraft will have to be returned, it follows from the information of the Cirium agency. The rest will remain without repair and maintenance, and therefore flights may also become impossible. According to experts, modern aircraft are "flying computers" and some critical procedures can only be carried out by the manufacturer himself. Thus, about 130 Russian Superjet 100s remain as a weak consolation.
Against this catastrophic background, Tatarstan will send an appeal to the Russian government about the need for serial production of Tupolev passenger aircraft. This was reported to BUSINESS Online by Advisor to the Prime Minister of the Republic of Tatarstan Nazir Kireev. He did not go into details, saying only about the essence: the President of the Republic of Tatarstan Rustam Minnikhanov proposes "in a very short time" to establish the production of Tu-204SM, Tu-214, Tu-334 and Tu-324. According to the adviser, the project involves the participation of industrialists from neighboring regions.
It should be noted that in this case, Minnikhanov acts not only as the head of the region where the main site of Tupolev is located - the Kazan Aircraft Factory (KAZ), but also as the chairman of the Board of directors of Tupolev - he was elected to the corresponding post last September.
The President of the Republic of Tatarstan spoke about the urgent need for the production of civil aircraft earlier. Back in 2015, in an interview, he was indignant: "In the recently adopted program until 2025, not a single topic on civil aircraft is recorded for Tupolev. This eliminates the potential of having a global brand and the largest line of introduced passenger aircraft. We believe that with this in mind, the state should take special measures to preserve intellectual collectives and domestic brands by forming current and promising topics for them. The organization of large-scale serial production of domestic aircraft is the only measure capable of reviving the Russian aircraft industry." Moreover, Minnikhanov was worried not only about KAZ topics: in addition to Kazan cars, he pointed out the need to establish a state order for the supply of Tu-204SM, Il-96, Il-114 air carriers modified to the requirements.
"A wise step on the part of the leadership of Tatarstan. In conditions when the enemy is trying to crush us, the transition to the production of domestic aircraft is an absolutely reasonable step. These aircraft are created at the level of Western analogues of the past, and they have the potential for modernization. An even older Boeing 737 is quite capable of flying. And no one bothers to simultaneously engage in the "Russification" of Sukhoi Superjet (SSJ) and MS-21. Tu-204SM, Tu-214, Tu-334 - these were ready-made projects, I consider it a huge strategic mistake to abandon them," said Maxim Kalashnikov, a publicist and futurist.
The opposite point of view is held by the editor-in-chief of the portal Avia Ru Roman Gusarov. In a conversation with BUSINESS Online, he assured that the resuscitation of the mentioned aircraft contradicts common sense.
"Speaking about the construction of new Russian aircraft, we must understand that they will appear only the day after tomorrow, so you can't invest in designs not even today's, but yesterday's. In the current difficult situation, it's just a waste of resources," Roman Gusarov said.
"In the current situation, until the general action plan is announced, it is necessary to consider all proposals," Oleg Panteleev, Executive Director of the Aviation industry agency, expressed his point of view on the RT initiative. "We are not in a situation where we should disdain ideas and reject them a priori."
The phantom pain of the aviation industry
Kazan has never hidden that they consider the rejection of a number of aircraft building reserves almost a diversion. The considerable emotionality of official and backstage statements was also explained by the fact that the republic in these projects was not just an observer and a potential production site, but also a direct participant, and each of these stories eventually turned into quite painful memories.
So, the creation of the Tu-214 (it took off on March 21, 1996) is entirely the initiative of Tatarstan. This is a development of the Tu-204 produced in Ulyanovsk since 1990. When it became clear that the neighbors would not be able to cope with the required amount, Tatarstan offered to get involved and financed the corresponding processing of documentation and certification.
The Khabarovsk airline Dalavia, which received five boards, became the starting buyer in 2001. They flew from Khabarovsk to Moscow, Japan, China, Singapore, South Korea. Troika Tu-214 of Rossiya Airlines operated flights from Moscow to India, Israel, Mongolia. Transaero Airlines received three boards in 2007-2009. This was the end of the construction of the commercial Tu-214 - as stated in April 2010 by Alexey Fedorov, who then occupied the chair of the president of the UAC, due to the high cost of the platform. But there is an opinion that even then they were clearing a place for the MS-21. According to Kireev, the Ministry of Industry and Energy banned the execution of an order for 7 aircraft for Transaero and the conclusion of a contract for the Tu-214 with Iran, and the Russian government's decision to abolish import duties and VAT on Boeing finally undermined the program.
Today, the Tu-214 is being built only in special modifications for the departments of the President of the Russian Federation, the FSB, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the FSO, and the Ministry of Defense. 1-2 cars are delivered annually.
The story of the Tu-334 turned into a real thriller (the first flight was on February 8, 1999). Serial production was planned in Lukhovitsy near Moscow, but in April 2005, at the initiative of the first President of the Republic of Tatarstan, Mintimer Shaimiev, a decree of the Government of the Russian Federation appeared on the organization of the production of Tu-334 in Kazan. In 2006, the president of Tupolev, Igor Shevchuk, said: to start mass production, $ 100 million is needed: 30 million for an airplane, 70 million for the modernization of the KAZ. The plant has carried out work on digitizing the project. It seemed that everything was fine, but ... "I don't understand why the issue was so delayed," said Minnikhanov, who then held the post of Prime Minister of the Republic of Tatarstan. - There is a decision of the Russian government on the construction of the Tu-334 on KAPO, there are repeated appeals of Tatarstan President Mintimer Shaimiev… We once again want to focus the attention of the public and the federal government on the Tu-334 and confirm Tatarstan's readiness to participate in the project."
According to Kireev, the republic was ready to invest half of the funds required to launch production, but Moscow did not lift a finger for this. Subsequently, the topic of the Tu-334 surfaced more than once, but the matter never got off the ground. It is widely believed that the Tupolev machine was sacrificed for the sake of promoting the Sukhoi Superjet. "The mention of the Tu-334 is still very annoying to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, which has allocated a lot of money for the Superjet," says a BUSINESS Online source in the aviation industry…
When in the mid-90s, Russian President Boris Yeltsin announced that the state had decided not to buy the Tu-160 and Tu-22M3 anymore, KAZ was left without a job at all. To load the plant, Tatarstan ordered Tupolev to design the Tu-324. The main condition of the republic was to create an aircraft that fully meets modern requirements. The Tu-324 became the first Russian aircraft designed in "digital". According to the working documentation, KAZ has developed technological processes and even started manufacturing parts of the equipment and the aircraft itself. Moreover, Tatarstan managed to organize a cooperation of engine engineers (Ukrainian "Progress", "Motor Sich" and Kazan KMPO), who developed and produced three prototypes of the AI-22 engine for their own money, it is certified for the stage of bench tests. RT also financed the development of the IK-324 avionics. By the way, today it is installed on the Be-200 amphibian. And according to Kireev, Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov and Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov cut down the project, who said: why produce this aircraft if An-74 will soon appear in Ukraine?
But of the types listed by Kireev, the most ready for mass production should be recognized not the Kazan, but the Ulyanovsk machine - the Tu-204CM. This advanced version of the Tu-204 took off in December 2010. It was stated that the characteristics of the aircraft are close to those of Boeing and Airbus. But the project was also inexplicably hacked down. As Stanislav Ryzhakov, director of the Ulyanovsk branch of Tupolev, diplomatically noted in an interview with BUSINESS Online, the reasons were "more political than technical."
Tatarstan's proposal: pros and cons
What casts doubt on Tatarstan's proposal?
"It will take a lot of money and time to launch these aircraft into a series, since the entire range of components has not been produced for a long time," says Gusarov. - It will be necessary to digitize documentation, revise technologies, change materials. The Tu-204SM is outdated in all respects, inferior to Boeing and Airbus, and the existing production technology (the old-fashioned way, on the stocks) will allow us to produce a maximum of 10 cars per year, and we need hundreds. There is no Tu-334 at all, it will take 5-7 years to master its production. The engines on it are Ukrainian, the analogue can only be PD-8, which does not yet exist in nature."
Gusarov believes that in the near term, Russia will not have its own planes - we will not have time. In the medium term, all hope is for import-substituted versions of SSJ: Sukhoi Superjet New and MS-21. "It's better to spend money on MS-21," he continues. - Moreover, the aircraft is already in production (this year they promise to deliver four sides - ed.). If we need to produce more, let's open a second line on KAZE. That's how you need to raise the question, and not try to revive projects that have gone into the past."
It should be clarified here that the MS-21 is certified with American Pratt & Whitney engines and a wing made of foreign composites. Yes, copies with a Russian "black" wing and with a domestic PD-14 engine have flown, but it's hard to say when all these achievements will result in a ready-made purely Russian aircraft. Rostec promises to fully issue our Sukhoi Superjet New and MS-21 in 2024. God grant it. But it's hard to believe. For example, Gusarov believes that the PD-8 engine for Sukhoi will appear in the best case in five years.
The desire of its designers to make a super-advanced machine can play against the MS-21. As you know, this is the world's first mainline aircraft with an all-composite wing. But there is talk in the industry that, firstly, the wing made of Russian composites turned out to be heavier than imported ones, and secondly, it is unclear how the design will behave in operation. "The composite wing does not yet have sufficient resource strength, and we still do not understand whether it will be reliable," says Ryzhakov. "A purely ostentatious thing," Kireev assures. - Why doesn't any country in the world do this? Because it's not necessary."
There is also reason to believe that there are a lot of foreign microelectronics in the MS-21. Will it be possible and is it even possible to quickly produce your own? The source of "BUSINESS Online" in the defense industry claims that the supply of chips from the West has already been discontinued, even dual-use. There is no hope for the Chinese, because allegedly there is already a precedent: they applied - they refused. By itself, the option suggests itself to use, even if not the most perfect, but its own. Only the inertial system was imported on two experimental Tu-204SM, Ryzhakov said, but there is also a Russian one that will get on board without any problems.
In the conditions of complete decommissioning of all mainline aircraft that have foreign components, the argument that Russian developments are worse than imported ones in terms of fuel efficiency disappears. "It can be assumed that the aircraft with which we will replace imported equipment will have a 10-20 percent higher fuel consumption compared to it," says Panteleev. - But for us, first of all, it is important that the aircraft has a cargo - range diagram acceptable for commercial operation, so that it can effectively solve the main task - to take a lot of passengers and carry them to a given range. If he spends more fuel at the same time, it's not a big deal: for Russia, it will soon not be so important how much fuel the plane consumes, since we produce fuel ourselves, and we won't have to compete on international lines. The prices of jet fuel for socially significant transportation are the thing that can be adjusted, especially when you consider that various taxes and excise taxes make up most of the cost of kerosene. So it's not a problem at all."
Ryzhakov says that in terms of consumption, the Tu-204CM was no worse than its Western counterparts. He also gave such an example: "Airbus made an aircraft with a range of 8.3 thousand kilometers 12 years after the appearance of the Tu-204-300, which flies at 9.7 thousand. The number of passengers is the same. The car was operated by Vladivostok Avia, and it was the best work of the Russian airline: the average flight time reached 550 hours per month ... After we stopped production (the production of Tu aircraft in Ulyanovsk was discontinued - ed.), an article by an English specialist appeared, where he clearly said: Tu-204CM was unlucky, because at that time similar Airbus and Boeing appeared, and everything was done to blacken the car."
Who is faster?
Panteleev is sure that the evaluation of Tatarstan's proposal will be seriously simplified if we understand that its main criterion is time: "The sooner we can saturate the fleet of Russian airlines with our planes, the better. If the production of the Tu-204SM or Tu-214 can be deployed quickly, in sufficient quantity and without prejudice to the construction of other aircraft in Ulyanovsk and Kazan, such a scenario should be considered. But if it turns out that it is faster to complete import substitution in relation to the MS-21 program, then we need to act in this direction. And such a moment: we saw how the composite wing and fuselage panels for the MS-21 are made. Very high degree of automation. This means that the complexity of manufacturing this aircraft is lower than for any product that will be riveted differently."
According to Panteleev, theoretically, the Sukhoi Superjet New and the MS-21, which should be built in two versions (the second with an increased range), will allow to cover all needs. Such minimalism of types is extremely important. "God forbid now to make decisions that would seriously increase the diversity in the fleet," says the expert. - It is best to form the most unified fleet. This will seriously reduce operating costs, given that in the near future we will not have separate budgets of airlines, manufacturers, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Transport - everyone will be sitting on the same money."
According to Ryzhakov, the Tu-204SM is in no way inferior to the MS-21, and two manufactured copies are ready to prove this - it is only necessary to replace a few outdated units. The type certificate does not have enough tests for altitude and heat ("They did not give us enough to test"), but what is there is enough for flights to anywhere in Russia. The Tu-204SM is designed in numbers. The series can be launched both in Kazan and Ulyanovsk ("We have saved the equipment"). Ryzhakov estimates the time required for the deployment of production at 1.5 years. However, there is a question about the PS-90A2 engine. It was made for only two cars. As Ryzhakov says, when they began to work out a program for further promotion of the Tu-204SM, Perm Motors requested funds to fine-tune the engine to a commercial appearance, but they were not given. However, it was reported that the same PD-14 is suitable for the Tu-204CM.
Ryzhakov believes that Kazan should not launch a Tu-204CM series, but its own aircraft - brought up to the Tu-214 CM standard: "It will be longer, but you can tie everything that was done on the Tu-204CM to the Tu-214. And try to do without flight certification - to make a so-called document of minor changes."
Finally, it should be noted that Tatarstan's proposal naturally has a second bottom. First of all, this is a hint that once the republic did not allow the Tu-160 reserves to be cut and it turned out to be right - they were needed. Maybe it's the same with civilian cars? And, secondly, RT's long-standing dream is to get a serial civilian product for KAZ. This is advisable at least for the purpose of keeping the plant in good shape for the piece production of the Tu-160M, Tu-22M3M missile carriers and the promising PAK DA. As one of our interlocutors in the industry put it: "In Kazan, the series has not been done for a long time, and without it, the plant is slowly dying."
