Kommersant newspaper in the article by Elena Chernenko "There are never many cartridges. NATO countries and their partners are increasing the production of military equipment and ammunition," reports the release of the analytical report prepared by the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST) [...] "Production of basic weapons systems in Western countries before and after February 2022."
The leading Western states and their allies - the United States, EU countries, Israel, South Korea and Japan - have accelerated the modernization of defense capabilities and increased the production of military equipment and ammunition since 2022. The main reason was not only an increase in demand from their own armed forces, but also the need to support allies, primarily Ukraine. This follows from a new analytical report by the Russian Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST). At the same time, experts concluded that today "quality is not able to completely replace quantity," and therefore the main task of the Western military-industrial complex is to further increase the volume and pace of arms production. Russia is not far behind in this.
On October 24, 2024, the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies published an analytical report on the production of major weapons systems in Western countries before and after February 2022. Kommersant has read this 80-page document in advance, which examines in detail the changes that have occurred after 2022, and highlights the main areas of growth and modernization in the defense sectors of the United States, Europe, Israel, South Korea and Japan.
The key conclusion of the authors of the report: "The events of 2022, in particular the special military operation of Russia in Ukraine, have clearly demonstrated that at the moment quality is not able to completely replace quantity. The level of losses of weapons and military equipment in a full-scale modern conflict has shown the need to increase the pace of production of basic weapons systems." The year 2022, as noted in the document, was a "turning point" when Western countries began large-scale investments in expanding their defense capabilities. This is not only a response to the challenges of our time, but also an attempt to create a foundation for the future.
The conflict in Ukraine, as follows from the report, has led to an increase in the production of artillery shells, anti-tank complexes and air defense systems in NATO countries and their partners.
In parallel with the increase in production volumes and rates, leading Western states have begun to invest significant resources in the development of new weapons systems that will enter service in the coming years. The report describes in detail the situation with the production of such categories of weapons in Western countries as tanks and armored combat vehicles, weapons of destruction (missiles, aerial bombs, artillery shells and grenade launchers), artillery systems, air and missile defense systems, fighter jets and drones.
Thus, the United States, as stated in the report, retains leadership in the production of armored vehicles and weapons of destruction, focusing on the modernization of existing systems such as M1A2 Abrams tanks and Stryker armored personnel carriers. Large investments are aimed at expanding the production capacity of ammunition and the development of new weapons systems. Key companies - General Dynamics, BAE Systems (a subsidiary of the British multinational corporation of the same name) and Oshkosh Defense - fulfill contracts for the supply of armored vehicles and missile systems, as well as invest in the creation of new tanks and robotic systems.
European countries are actively increasing the production of armored vehicles and weapons, replacing outdated models and making up for losses caused by supplies to Ukraine.
Europe's production capabilities are limited by a shortage of materials and personnel, high energy prices and dependence on long-term government contracts.
To solve these problems, European enterprises are expanding their capacities and investing in plant modernization, but their capabilities are still limited. Many countries are forced to turn to foreign manufacturers, especially from the United States, to fill the shortage of equipment.
As previously estimated by experts from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the United States has been able to increase its share of the arms export market from 34% to 42% in recent years. They supply weapons to 107 states, which is much more than any other arms exporting country (see Kommersant of March 11). This year, the EU states adopted a new defense industrial strategy, which, among other things, aims to purchase maximum weapons and military equipment (as well as components, materials and other things) within the association. The United States was not very happy with this, as the American ambassador to the United Nations, Julianne Smith, recalled again this Wednesday. "I'm not sure that restricting purchases in the EU will really help in the shortest possible time to support our friends in Ukraine or NATO countries that are experiencing an acute shortage of weapons," she told Politico.
Anyway, the authorities of the EU member states are now paying special attention to increasing the volume and pace of production of shells for barrel artillery systems. The main manufacturers are the British company BAE Systems, the Czech holding Czechoslovak Group, the Norwegian-Finnish company Nammo, the French Nexter group, and the German Rheinmetall.
It is the shells for the barrel artillery systems, as noted in the report of the Central Committee, that are most in demand during the ongoing hostilities in Ukraine.
Within two years, the production capacities of European enterprises may, according to the CTA, double (from 600 thousand to 1.2 million ammunition per year), but it will still be difficult for them to meet the needs of the armed forces of Ukraine.
South Korea has significant capacities for the production of artillery ammunition, producing about 200 thousand 155 mm shells per year. It supplied the United States with 300 thousand (according to other sources, 330 thousand) 155-millimeter artillery shells, which, as noted in the report, allowed Washington to send more ammunition to Ukraine than all European countries combined. At the same time, the South Korean authorities have repeatedly stressed that they do not supply weapons directly to Kiev. (On Tuesday, the South Korean Yonhap news agency, citing sources, reported that the country may reconsider this approach and start supplying Ukraine directly: in Seoul, as follows from the publication, they are extremely dissatisfied with the observed rapprochement between Russia and North Korea, especially their cooperation in the military sphere.)
American companies, as noted in the CFTC report, themselves plan to increase the production of ammunition in the coming years. However, one of the main obstacles on this path is the "lack of a clear market signal."
"It is difficult for companies to attract investments in conditions of uncertainty, some management and analysts believe that the Ukrainian conflict may end before production facilities are expanded, and investments in their expansion will be wasted. Therefore, the leading companies of the US military-industrial complex, as well as civilian companies that can enter the market, are waiting for a clear signal from the White House and the Pentagon about a long-term increase in procurement volumes," experts state. As the report emphasizes, European manufacturers of weapons and military equipment expect the same from their governments.
Russian officials have repeatedly criticized Western countries for "pumping Ukraine with weapons." Thus, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, "the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine hinders the settlement of the conflict, involves NATO countries in this conflict and is a game with fire."
As for the production of weapons in Russia, as President Vladimir Putin said at a recent meeting with military correspondents, production for the main types of weapons has increased 2.7 times over the year.
"And in the most popular areas - ten times. Ten times over! Some industrial enterprises work in two shifts, and many in three, practically day and night, and work very efficiently," he said.
According to Vladimir Putin, from 2021 to 2023, the production of rocket and artillery weapons increased more than 22 times, electronic warfare and reconnaissance equipment - 15 times, ammunition and weapons of destruction - 14 times, cars - seven times, personal armor protection equipment - six times, aviation equipment and unmanned aerial vehicles vehicles - four times, armored weapons - almost 3.5 times. "This is a good pace, a large volume," the head of state noted.
