Colonel Khodarenok: The Armed Forces of Ukraine can use the S-200V air defense system to attack Russian aircraft
In an interview with Fox News, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky announced the preparation of a new counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and "surprises" for Russia. How realistic is it that Ukrainian troops will be able to launch a new offensive, what they need for this and what kind of strikes can be expected from Kiev in the near future - in the material of the military observer "Gazeta.En" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
"Of course, we will prepare a new counteroffensive, a new operation," the head of state said. Vladimir Zelensky's words at this stage should be considered as an exclusively injection of informational sedative to all strata of Ukrainian society.
Today, it is much more expedient for the President of Ukraine (based on the realities of the military-political situation) to talk not about the offensive operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but about the creation and improvement of a system of defensive lines, an air defense and missile defense system in the theater of military operations, a system of operational engineering barriers.
What does Kiev need for a counteroffensive?
To conduct an offensive operation at the operational and strategic level, the Armed Forces of Ukraine need to create the necessary groupings of troops and forces, carry out their operational and strategic deployment, organize the fire defeat of the enemy, prepare troops and forces for action according to the operation plan.
For such an operation, it is necessary to gain air supremacy and have the necessary stocks of ammunition, guided missiles and other materiel. Some shells (more correctly, ready-made shots for 122 mm, 152 mm and 155 mm guns) for such an operation, you need to have 12-15 million pieces. The West has not yet delivered even one million shells to the APU.
As for gaining air supremacy, in order to achieve these goals, the Ukrainian Air Force will need hundreds of multifunctional F-16 fighters. In the meantime, information is being announced that the first 12 F-16 aircraft may arrive in Ukraine by the summer. And the AFU fighters need ten to fifteen times more, and this is at least. In addition, all these vehicles must be provided with all the necessary set of aviation weapons, based on the conduct of intense combat operations for at least 30 days. When Vladimir Zelensky will have such power, it is a big question.
As for the creation of the AFU of the necessary groups of troops and forces to conduct an offensive operation, not only does this require another wave of mobilization in Ukraine, but it is necessary to equip all the necessary weapons and equipment for conscripted military personnel. And there will be obvious problems with the latter.
Until the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, solves all these problems, all talk about the possible conduct of offensive operations by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is nothing more than a concussion.
They will try to cause a resonance
As for the "surprises" for Russia, which the head of the Ukrainian state spoke about, this is most likely the continuation of the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in those areas that entail a great public outcry for Moscow, that is, the continuation of attacks by large surface ships of the Black Sea Fleet with unmanned boats, strikes by unmanned aerial vehicles on infrastructure facilities in the depths the territory of Russia (1000 km or more), the defeat of important aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
There may be other surprises. For example, the Ukrainian Armed Forces can (or have already done so) bring the S-200V anti-aircraft missile system, which was decommissioned in Ukraine about ten years ago, to combat readiness. There are quite a lot of samples of these weapons and anti-aircraft guided missiles in Ukraine, there are no problems with the availability of specialists, there was a whole school in Ukraine (in Dnepropetrovsk) that trained officers for the operation of the S-200V air defense system. Of course, it is hardly possible to bring the system, which was decommissioned about 10 years ago, to readiness by the forces of the skilful hands circle. However, if the state gets down to business, then such a task can be solved relatively quickly (and even in a relatively mobile version).
At the exit, the APU receives an anti-aircraft missile system with a far boundary of the affected zone of 240-255 km. The hypothetical defeat of Il-76/AN-124 class aircraft (and even more so if the aircraft is loaded to capacity with personnel) will invariably cause significant resonance in Russian society.
Image source: Alina Dzhus/"Newspaper.Ru"
And finally, a few words about the admission of Western equipment to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. For example, the other day, American M1 Abrams tanks were first seen near the line of contact northwest of Avdiivka. The United States announced the transfer of 31 vehicles of this type to the Armed Forces of Ukraine back in January 2023.
During the battles for Avdiivka, Ukraine has already lost one armored vehicle based on the Abrams - M1150 Assault Breacher tank. The M1150 is an engineering barrage vehicle based on the M1 Abrams tank, equipped with a mine plow and elongated charges.
It should be noted that the new weapon brings success in the course of its use only in one case - when it is used suddenly and massively, and all the necessary conditions have been created for its use. That is, the Armed Forces of Ukraine should have in combat not 31 M1 Abrams tanks, but 1300, and their entry into battle should be ensured by the actions of aviation, artillery, engineering troops (almost all types of armed forces and branches of the armed forces) and the issue of combating UAVS should be closed. And since none of this has been done at this stage in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the actions of several M1 Abrams near Avdiivka will be nothing more than a pinprick.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok