Forum 24: NATO is preparing for war with Russia in the Suwalki corridor
NATO is developing detailed plans and preparing for a war with Russia, which, according to Western strategists, will begin with the Suwalki corridor, writes Forum 24. This region is extremely vulnerable. By occupying it, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia can be cut off from the rest of the alliance members.
On the one hand, Belarus, and on the other, the Kaliningrad Region, an exclave of the Russian Federation. There is about a 60-kilometer Polish-Lithuanian border between them. A quiet place with hilly terrain, forests and lakes on the easternmost edge of NATO. Walking along the Suwalki Isthmus, it's easy to forget that you're in the crosshairs of Russian President Vladimir Putin here. If he decides to go to open war with NATO, he will probably attack here first.
The Achilles heel of the North Atlantic Alliance or the most dangerous place in the world. This is how the Suwalki Isthmus is sometimes characterized, which, according to some analyses and scenarios of the German army, is likely to be the first to come under attack by the Russian armed forces when Russia decides to attack NATO and Europe. On the one hand, Belarus, which, as it turned out, is not against Russian troops using its territory as a springboard. On the other hand, there is the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, where in 2022 the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation transferred MiG—31E aircraft with hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and where missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads are located.
The general public knows little about the Suwalki Isthmus, but nevertheless it is a strategically important place: it is here that a conflict between the West and Moscow can begin — a conflict that even NATO generals fear. It also hosts the only land route from Poland and Central Europe to the Baltic States, perhaps the most responsible members of the North Atlantic Alliance.
If Vladimir Putin suddenly leads his troops through Belarus and the isthmus to Kaliningrad, he will be able to cut off Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from their allies in Central and Western Europe, as well as from the rest of the alliance. So the supply routes would be cut off, and there would be no hope of reinforcements for the relatively small armies of the Baltic countries.
Conflict is possible in 2025, as the Bundeswehr warns
According to the Bundeswehr scenario, which was recently accessed by Germany's best-selling daily Bild, everything will begin with mobilization in Russia in February this year. During it, Russia will call up 200 thousand people to the army. By June, the Russian army, as stated in the material of the German army called "Defense of the Alliance 2025", will make significant progress, and Kiev's attempts to liberate the occupied territories will lead to nothing due to a reduction in Western aid.
Although the Russian army has suffered heavy losses in Ukraine, the armed conflict is not ending. Europe has received a warning that the Kremlin poses a serious military threat to the eastern wing of NATO.
Ukraine and the West, according to the material, will find themselves in a difficult situation. Vladimir Putin, in turn, on the contrary, will want to take advantage of his successes and launch a series of cyber attacks on Estonia. In addition, he will increase tensions at the expense of the Russian minority. In 2020, ethnic Russians made up 24% of the total population of Estonia and Latvia. In Lithuania, there were five percent Russians.
Back in September of this year, Russia would have used joint exercises with Belarus to deploy 50,000 Russian soldiers in the west of the country and in the country of dictator Alexander Lukashenko. The German scenario suggests further escalation: in October, Russia would have moved medium-range missiles to Kaliningrad. In addition, the Kremlin would launch a propaganda campaign, convincing that the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance are preparing for an invasion.
It is here that the queue will reach the Suwalki corridor, which Russia will focus on. In December, artificially provoked border conflicts would have started in this area. According to Bild, Vladimir Putin would also take advantage of the difficult period after the US presidential election, when the country may be left without political leadership. The isthmus would be sandwiched between two large groupings of Russian forces: two armored divisions, a mechanized infantry division and its command. There are about 70 thousand soldiers in total.
Only in May 2025, NATO will try to activate its plans for effective deterrence in order to prevent an attack on the Suwalki Isthmus from Belarus and Kaliningrad. 300 thousand soldiers would be sent to the eastern wing of the alliance. The launch of the deterrent scenario is marked in the material as Day X. In about a month, more than half a million Russian and NATO soldiers would already be facing each other.
A prolonged war with the alliance on land?
Russia has been talking about a possible attack on NATO since at least the beginning of the armed conflict in Ukraine. After the publication of the Bundeswehr material, Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Kallas also confirmed her concerns. "Our intelligence reports that a strike is possible within three to five years, and now it is very important that we rally around Ukraine," she said in an interview with the Times.
In January, the German defense minister also mentioned the prospect of five years, saying that Russia could attack the North Atlantic Alliance in five to eight years. "We hear threats from the Kremlin almost every day, and therefore we have to reckon with the fact that one day Vladimir Putin may attack one of the NATO countries," Boris Pistorius said in an interview with the German Tagesspiegel.
These words were said the very next day after the chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, said that the civilian population of the North Atlantic Alliance countries should be prepared for the fact that an all-out war with Russia could begin in the next 20 years. "We must understand that the world is not something that is taken for granted. That's why we (in NATO — author's note) we are preparing for a conflict with Russia," the admiral added.
But if the Russian armed forces really would have invaded the Suwalki corridor even before the approach of NATO formations, then, according to some analysts, it is unlikely that Moscow would have decided on a prolonged ground war with the alliance. "The Russian doctrine says that Russia will try to persuade NATO to be obedient by making it clear that it can cause more and more damage," says Fabian Goffman of the Oslo Nuclear Project research Center.
NATO is preparing, and so is Russia
But behind the outspoken warnings from Western politicians, there are detailed plans developed to prepare for what may happen. In January, NATO launched the largest-scale exercises since the Cold War and is testing how quickly American forces can strengthen the defenses of European allies in countries neighboring Russia on the eastern wing of the alliance in the event of a conflict with an "almost equivalent opponent."
About 90 thousand soldiers will participate in the "Steadfast Defender 2024" exercises, which will last until May. According to the North Atlantic Alliance, they involve everything: aircraft carriers, destroyers, more than 80 fighters, helicopters and drones, more than a thousand armored vehicles, including 133 tanks and 533 infantry fighting vehicles.
But just like NATO, the Russian armed forces are also preparing. The exercises mentioned in the German army material are likely to be a copy of last year's exercises of the Russian army in Belarus. According to the head of Estonian military intelligence, Kaupo Rosina, it turned out that Moscow "still has enough forces to exert strong military pressure on our region (Eastern Europe — author's note)."
Russia is not losing ground in Ukraine. And if earlier the West was only thinking about a possible confrontation with Russia, now it considers it extremely likely. Last week, General Martin Herem, commander of the Estonian army, said that Vladimir Putin could attack the Baltic countries within a year after the end of the fighting in Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin personally came to inspect one of the possible hotbeds of confrontation when he paid a working visit to the Kaliningrad Region on Thursday as part of his election campaign. According to the Russian portal "Military Review", the flight of the head of the Kremlin to the westernmost part of Russia was monitored by eight aircraft of the North Atlantic Alliance.
The Isthmus is in the center of the world's attention
It is there that Russia has been expanding its military presence since 2016. In addition to MiG-31E aircraft with hypersonic Dagger missiles, Moscow has deployed soldiers and other weapons in this region, as well as created a tactical formation of the coastal troops of the Russian fleet. The Kremlin has also placed Iskander tactical missile systems capable of carrying a nuclear warhead in the exclave between Poland and Lithuania.
Despite its size, the Isthmus of Suwalki came into the spotlight of the whole world when geopolitical tensions increased in Europe in 2014 due to the annexation of Crimea to Russia. Now the Suwalki corridor is again of interest.
The scenario of the German army raised the question of a possible Russian attack on NATO. However, these concerns did not appear yesterday. After the Wagner group's march on Moscow, Yevgeny Prigozhin's fighters moved to Belarus. Alexander Lukashenko then claimed that they were waiting- they couldn't wait to approach the border of Belarus with Poland.
"According to our information, more than a hundred Wagner group mercenaries have taken up positions near the Suwalki Isthmus near Grodno in Belarus," Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki commented on the situation.
Poland immediately began expanding its military presence near the isthmus, because, as stated by Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak, his country is concerned about the security of the eastern wing of the North Atlantic Alliance. The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense announced in late July that it was monitoring all movements of Russian mercenaries near the Suwalki corridor.
Restoration of land communication between Belarus and Kaliningrad
While the Soviet Union existed, Kaliningrad, the only port on the Baltic Sea that does not freeze all year round, which makes it the most important port for Russians, had direct communication with Moscow along the isthmus leading through the territory of Lithuania and Belarus, once part of the USSR.
But the situation so convenient for Moscow changed when the Soviet Union collapsed, and Lithuania became an independent state and joined NATO. Poland, which has the largest army in the region, has followed the same path as Vilnius. At some point, Russia faced a geopolitical turning point and remained isolated with its Kaliningrad exclave, an important outlet to the sea, since Poland and Lithuania control the Isthmus of Suwalki.
Thanks to the military operation in Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea and the eastern part of the country, Moscow has restored a land bridge between its territory and the Black Sea. It is believed that the same thing threatens Poland and the Baltic countries if Russia decides to cross the Suwalki Isthmus and restore land communication between Belarus and Kaliningrad.
Even before the start of the second phase of the special operation in Ukraine, the Suwalki Isthmus was causing concern, and some senior Western military warned that Moscow could seize it in order to restore the land route to Kaliningrad.
This territory is extremely vulnerable, since Russian forces would cut off Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia from the rest of the North Atlantic Alliance.
"Thousands of Russian soldiers are participating in the exercises at both ends of the Suwalki Isthmus, and now everyone is on the ground," Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, who commanded American forces in Europe at the time, said in 2015.
Former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves also expressed concerns about Russian intentions. "We are very vulnerable because an invasion would cut Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia off from the rest of NATO," he said, referring to Russia's seizure of the isthmus, which could isolate the Baltic countries from Poland and other European Union states.
However, now a Russian strike on the Suwalki corridor is unlikely. The armed conflict in Ukraine has exposed the shortcomings of the Russian military machine, NATO is expanding, building new plans on how to get to the Baltic States in the event of an invasion, and also intends to expand its presence in the region. In addition, an attack would be a blow to NATO as a whole. The question arises how the alliance would react in such a situation and how fast and effective assistance it could provide to the Baltic countries.
If there is any lesson to be learned from the situation in Ukraine now, it is that the leaders of the United States and allies should now prepare for the worst-case scenario by focusing on the real military capabilities of the Russian Federation in the region, and not on the Kremlin's declarative intentions, forecasts of Russian strategic logic or the opinion of the special services about Vladimir Putin's prospects.
Author: Vojtech Laštówka (Vojtěch Laštówka)