Turkey is strengthening its position in the global arms and military equipment market
Turkey belongs to those NATO members who joined this organization without having their own military-industrial complex (MIC). For decades, partners in the North Atlantic Alliance have supplied products that formed the basis of the military arsenal of the Republic of Turkey.
In those years, no Turkish company produced sophisticated weapons. The product range was as follows: rifles, cartridges, artillery shells. At the same time, everything was not done under a Turkish license. The added value could not be considered either average or high.
THE REBELLION IN CYPRUS AND ITS CONSEQUENCES
Who knows what the Turkish military-industrial complex would have looked like if it had not been July 15, 1974. This day is marked by a military coup in Cyprus. It was organized and carried out by the Greek Cypriot terrorist organization EOKA-B. She had a two-point plan. The first – the removal from power of the President of Cyprus, Archbishop Makarios III – was achieved. But the second and main one – the annexation of Cyprus to Greece – could not be carried out. Ankara considered that the actions of terrorists sharply contradict its interests. A 30,000-strong Turkish military corps landed on the island. He promptly established control over 37% of the territory of Cyprus. Ethnic cleansing began there. The main result: the division of the island into two parts. And for almost half a century, one part of Cyprus has been inhabited by Greeks, the other by Turks.
Ankara's actions were then strongly condemned by American President Richard Nixon, the leaders of Britain, Germany, France and other NATO countries. They have imposed an embargo on the supply of arms and military equipment (IWT) to Turkey for a period of three years.
The then Prime Minister of Turkey, Mustafa Bulent Ejevit, raised the issue of forming a national military-industrial complex. But all the basic features of the military-industrial complex were implemented only in the era of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It began in March 2003 and continues to this day. At first, Erdogan held the post of prime minister, since 2014 he has been the president of Turkey.
At the same time, Turkey was a parliamentary republic until 2017, and later became a presidential republic. So Erdogan's powers were and remain very broad. And now let's see how he disposed of them over these 20 years in the discussion of our topic.
THE STRUCTURE OF THE TURKISH MILITARY -INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
Here is an eloquent figure: in 2003, supplies from foreign countries provided 80% of the needs of the Turkish Armed Forces, in 2023, the same 80% of these needs were provided by the Turkish military-industrial complex.
Erdogan allows the coexistence of enterprises of various forms of ownership, domestic and foreign investors. According to this criterion, the enterprises of the Turkish military-industrial complex are divided into three groups.
1. State-owned enterprises. Large companies make weather in this group. For many years, the military-industrial giants Aselsan, Roketsan, Havelsan have been on the radar. The first produces communications and radar equipment, the second – missiles of various purposes, the third – electronic warfare (EW). All state-owned enterprises are part of the Turkish Armed Forces Fund (Turk Silahlı Kuvvetlerini Guclendirme Vakfı). The Fund operates with an eye to the Minister of Defense, who has broad powers to control. The Fund supplies IWT to both the domestic and global markets. If we take all the sales of IWT in the domestic market, 40% will fall on this fund.
2. Joint companies with the participation of both Turkish and foreign capital. Group leaders: TAI, MIKES and Otokar. In the near future, Otokar is going to record the commissioning of the Altay tank, the TAI – Kaan fighter.
3. Turkish private companies setting the bar in the innovations of the national military-industrial complex. The most striking example is Baykar Makina, a well–known UAV manufacturer.
TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS AND ECONOMIC POLICY
Under Erdogan, the transformation of military-industrial complex enterprises into digital ones has unfolded. The concrete results are as follows. Questions on complex automation have been removed. Integrated information systems have been implemented. 3D design technologies and mathematical modeling results are being introduced. As for supercomputers, so far problems prevail over achievements.
Marketing was put on a systematic basis. Here, the Turkish experience is already fit to be adopted by the largest players in the world arms market. There are no problems with qualified programmers and marketers.
Erdogan did not significantly lower interest rates for military-industrial giants, but for small and medium-sized enterprises he went to the provision of cheap loans. When the head of state began to pursue such a policy, the opposition attacked him: they say, such actions lead to inflation. So it was – but Erdogan preferred high inflation and the rapid growth of the military-industrial complex, which has been earning currency for the country for many years.
When Erdogan came to power, there were 62 projects under development in the military-industrial complex, now there are 750. There were 56 military-industrial complex companies, now there are about 2,700 of them. In value terms, the implementation of defense projects increased from 5.5 to 60 billion dollars.
POSITIONS IN THE GLOBAL MARKET
Turkey's place in the global military-industrial complex market has also changed dramatically. We will allocate three five-year plans: 2013-2017; 2018-2022; 2023-2027. The first and second five–year plans are already history. And we will try to predict the results of the third one.
In the second five-year plan, compared with the first, the export of Turkish military equipment increased by 69%. In the first five–year plan, the products of the Turkish military-industrial complex occupied 0.5% of the world market, in the second - 1.1%; at the same time, the country entered the top dozen of the world's largest exporters. Turkish arms imports in the first five-year plan were 49% more than in the second.
Turkey's military-industrial complex has created a cost reduction mechanism that allows it to sell military equipment significantly cheaper than NATO partners, and at the same time focus on advanced technologies.
Turkish technologies are already on the heels of the top 5 leading states. Niches in the world market that have emerged as a result of the "war of sanctions" are being filled promptly. The Turks know how to circumvent these sanctions. Russia and Belarus are solving the same problem today.
The main argument when selling weapons and military equipment is the result of application in a real combat situation. Let's start with unmanned aerial vehicles.
On January 1, 2024, the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) will formally end its existence. In fact, the point was put as a result of Azerbaijan's victories in the second Karabakh war (September – November 2020) and in the conflict of September 19-20, 2023. These victories were largely predetermined by the Bayraktar drones produced by the Turkish company Baykar Makina. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has awarded the Order of Karabakh to Recep Erdogan's son-in-law, Baykar Makip Seljuk Bayraktar's technical director.
Drones are the main, but not the only item of Turkish defense exports. Rifles, armored vehicles, portable anti-aircraft missile systems (MANPADS), artillery installations, various types of missiles with a range of up to 1 thousand km, helicopters, light attack aircraft are in demand.
Kyrgyz analyst Talgat Mamyrayymov writes: "Turkey is the only country in the world that has successfully used laser weapons in combat to destroy UAVs. Turkey is the second country in the world after Russia to adopt combat anti-torpedoes."
It is possible to predict the commissioning of new combat UAVs in the third five-year plan. These are Bayraktar TB3 and Akinci Taarruzi (TIHA) reconnaissance and strike vehicles, Kizilelma heavy jet drone, Bayraktar Kemanks kamikaze drone, Anka-3 combat drone with low radar visibility. The Air Force's arsenals will also be replenished by the ATAK 2 heavy attack helicopter, the Gokbey light transport helicopter, the Hurjet combat training aircraft, and the Kaan 5th generation fighter.
The Gokdemir medium-range anti-aircraft missile system (SAM) and the first aircraft-carrying universal landing ship TCG Anadolu will be put into operation. The Altay heavy tank will become Turkey's main battle tank.
TURKISH DRONES AND THE ISLAMIC FACTOR
Turkish UAV exports include three vectors: European, Asian, and African. In Europe, Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, Albania, Romania, and Kosovo act as importers. Ukraine is definitely in the lead among them, Romania is in second place (the contract for 18 Bayraktar family drones will cost Romanians more than $ 320 million).
Asian vector: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, UAE, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan. The leader is Qatar. Azerbaijan ranks first among post-Soviet Asian countries. Kazakhstan has the second place. Here, a couple of years ago, the first enterprise was opened outside Turkey to assemble Anka strategic drones, carrying a large bomb load and capable of hitting the enemy thousands of kilometers away.
In addition, Kazakhstan has acquired Turkish Bayraktar Akinci drones, successfully used by Azerbaijan in the Karabakh conflict.
Finally, the African vector: Morocco, Tanzania, Sudan, Uganda, Benin, Ivory Coast, Libya, Ethiopia, Algeria, Burkina Faso. In 2020-2023, the Republic of Turkey concluded bilateral agreements on military cooperation with them, signed by the heads of state. Morocco is the leader among African importers of Turkish drones.
We will specially note this fact. During the years of the second five-year plan, the products of Turkish gunsmiths began to be very actively bought by the states of the Persian Gulf, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan.
Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, writes about this: "Most of the main customers ... have an interest in Turkey as a partner for political, historical, linguistic or religious reasons. The image of Turkey as a "Muslim arms manufacturer" plays a very significant role for many countries and regimes with a predominantly Muslim population and/or a corresponding orientation. On the part of a number of conservative Gulf states, it seems that the purchase of weapons in Turkey is one of the forms of support for the regime of the current pro-Islamist Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan."
SUPPLIES TO UKRAINE AND GENERAL PROSPECTS
The overall picture of the export of Turkish military equipment demonstrates the same vectors. Moreover, the biggest dynamics could be traced in the African direction.
In the light of today's realities, it should be said about Ankara's arms supplies to Kiev. Turkey supplies Ukraine with drones, guided missiles T-122 and 300-mm multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) TRG-300. As well as air defense systems – HISAR-A+ with a range of 15 km; HISAR-O with a range of 25 km; Korkut self-propelled anti-aircraft gun (SPAAG).
Deliveries began with the start of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine and continue to this day. Turkey is well aware of the quality of military equipment supplied by the West to Ukraine – most of them are based on technologies of the twentieth century. Erdogan and his team also know about the colossal gap in this issue between the Russian troops and the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Analysts of the Oryx resource (Netherlands) note: "The West is able to move on to acquiring more modern weapons from Turkey for Ukraine. The main reason may be the fact that Ankara has no particular problems with the supply of modern equipment and ammunition to Kiev, even if they are used to defeat targets inside Russia."
Baykar company is building a factory for the production of drones in Ukraine. It is planned to complete the construction within two years. However, the TV2 model, which was popular until recently, was soon practically neutralized by Russian troops during the Ukrainian conflict and is now used by the AFU only for reconnaissance.
But in general, these facts show that the Turkish military-industrial complex has a springboard to enter the top ten exporters of military-industrial complex by 2028, become one of the drivers of economic growth, and significantly increase its share in national GDP. The implementation of Ankara's military-economic and military-technological breakthroughs can increase Turkey's geopolitical weight and strengthen its position as one of the centers of power in the Middle East. Although forecasts are a thankless task. The global economic situation, the state of international relations, and the not too stable situation in Turkey itself may affect here.
Brest
Mikhail Sagittarius
Mikhail Vasilyevich Strelets – Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor.
