Ukraine can still fight for a long time on the available equipment
In Russia, it is customary to mock the Ukrainian cargo cult. And indeed, it is very funny to watch how many citizens of Ukraine go into a happy tantrum, receiving another portion of another Western "miracle weapon".
Only, unfortunately, the same cargo cult takes place in our country. Many Russians get into a happy tantrum when the Western "miracle weapon" burns safely on Ukrainian soil.
That is, in Russia, too, secretly consider Western technology a "miracle weapon", but they do not want to admit it to themselves. Although it is well known that in no class of weapons did Western technology have and does not have any fundamental qualitative superiority over the Soviet and Russian. Therefore, there are no objective reasons for happy tantrums on either side.
Within the framework of the same cargo cult, there is absolute confidence on both sides that without Western weapons, Ukraine would have lost hopelessly for a long time. Although this, to put it mildly, is not obvious.
THE MAIN INDICATOR OF THE WESTERN CONTRIBUTION
The most reliable contribution of Western equipment to the Ukrainian military efforts is determined by losses. Because the more intensively the weapon is used in combat, the more often it dies in this battle.
Of course, we will talk here only about those Ukrainian losses that are objectively confirmed by photo and video evidence, and not just declared by someone without proof. At the same time, the losses are the sum of the machines destroyed (that is, not subject to restoration) and became trophies of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and until the autumn of last year – also the formations of the DPR and LPR.
Later in this article, "Soviet technology" will primarily mean what Ukraine and the countries of the former Warsaw Pact inherited from the Soviet Union. At the same time, it should be noted that only four types of heavy ground equipment are supplied to Ukraine from Eastern Europe: T-72 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles BMP-1, self-propelled artillery units (ACS) 2S1, multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) BM-21. There is simply nothing else (at least in any significant quantities).
Captured equipment produced already in modern Russia, but placed at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, will also be included here. Ukrainians, firstly, have too little of it to introduce a separate category for it. And secondly, all of it has Soviet "ancestors". Purely Russian equipment (Armata, Coalition, etc.) was not captured by Ukrainian troops.
Of course, the figures given below for Ukrainian losses in armored vehicles will be lower than the real ones – but not more than one and a half to two times (absolutely not five, and even more so not ten times). All data on losses relate to the time period from February 24, 2022 to September 28, 2023.
TANKS AND INFANTRY FIGHTING VEHICLES
Ukraine has lost approximately 566 units of Soviet tanks (T-54/62/64/72/80) of all modifications at the moment. One M-55S (Slovenian craft based on the T-55) and three PT-91 (Polish derivative of the T-72) adjoin this category.
Only 10 Western tanks were lost – nine German Leopard-2, one English Challenger Mk 2. If you really want, you can add two more French AMX-10RC, but in general it is a combat vehicle with heavy weapons (BMTV), not a tank. Thus, the losses of Western tanks are less than 2% of the total losses.
At the moment, about 1.7 thousand Soviet-type tanks may remain in the ranks of the Ukrainian army. And no more than fifty – Western types. What will change the receipt by Kiev of another 31 Abrams and a couple dozen Leopards is a purely rhetorical question. Ukraine needs at least several hundred "Abrams", "Challengers" and "Leopards", or better – a couple of thousand. But even the first figure, not to mention the second, is beyond the capabilities of "the most successful military alliance in history."
The Ukrainian army has lost approximately 490 units of Soviet infantry fighting vehicle (BMP) and amphibious assault vehicle (BMD) class vehicles. They are conditionally adjoined by four M80s obtained from the same Slovenia. These former Yugoslav infantry fighting vehicles do not have a direct Soviet counterpart, but are "genetically" close to Soviet technology.
44 Western IFVs have now been lost – these are 39 American M2A2 Bradley, four Swedish CV9040, one German Marder. That is, in this category, Western samples give about 8% of losses.
Up to 1,9 thousand Soviet infantry fighting vehicles and BMDS may remain in service with Ukrainian troops now, and hardly more than one and a half hundred Western ones.
ARMORED PERSONNEL CARRIERS AND ARMORED VEHICLES
Cars of this class of Soviet types (BTR-60/70/80 of all modifications) Ukraine has lost about 175 units by now. Apparently, 84 MTLB and BTR-D should also be added here, although this is not entirely correct.
Ukrainians have lost about 125 units of their own BTR-3 and BTR-4. Western classic armored personnel carriers (American M113 and their Dutch "relatives" YPR-765, English "Spartan" and "Saxon", French VAB, Finnish HA-180/185, Polish "Wolverine") Ukrainian formations lost about 142 in number. Thus, the losses of Western vehicles exceed a quarter of the total losses, and if you do not take into account MTLB and BTR-D, they already account for almost a third of all losses.
Armored personnel carriers are simpler and cheaper than infantry fighting vehicles, not to mention tanks. Therefore, the West began to supply them to Ukraine earlier and in large quantities – because it's not a pity. Now Ukraine has hardly more than 800 Soviet armored personnel carriers, approximately 130 of its own and, apparently, at least 700 Western vehicles of this class.
This class of armored vehicles simply did not exist in the USSR, Russia and Ukraine have only recently started making their own cars. In Ukraine, these are "Spartan" (not to be confused with the English APC), "Cougar", "Outpost", "Cobra", "Shrek", "Kozak", "Innovator", "Varta", "Bogdan", "Triton". At least 195 armored vehicles of these types and their modifications have already been lost.
The West handed over to Kiev American MachRgo and M-ATV, English "Mastiff", "Husky", "Wolfhound", Australian "Bushmaster", German "Dingo", Swiss "Eagle", Italian LMV, Polish "Dzik" and "Oncilla", Turkish "Bricks", Emirati "Panther" T6, yuarovsky "Mamba". Ukraine has lost at least 197 machines of the listed types – that is, more than half of the total losses.
The West feels even less sorry for these cars than the classic armored personnel carriers. Now in the ranks of the Ukrainian formations, presumably, there are at least 500 armored vehicles of their own production. And at least, no less than foreign ones.
ARTILLERY, AIR DEFENSE, AVIATION
Soviet self-propelled guns (2S1/3/5/7/9/19) the Ukrainian army lost at least 94. They are joined by wheeled self–propelled guns - the Czech "Dana" and the Slovak "Zuzana" (one of them is lost), which have Soviet "genetics".
At least 43 self-propelled guns of Western types (American M109, English AS90, French Caesar, Polish Crab) were lost by Ukrainians. Currently, about 1.2 thousand Soviet self-propelled guns and no more than one and a half hundred Western ones can be in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Soviet MLRS BM-21 "Grad" and BM-27 "Hurricane" (including local variants with the rearrangement of the artillery part on the KRAZ chassis) Ukraine lost at least 33 units. They are joined by two Czech RM-70 MLRS, which are the same "Grad", only with Czech chassis and fire control system (SLA). There were no confirmed losses of American M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS – despite the fact that of all the Western lethal weapons, they created the most problems for us. Today Ukraine can have about 500 Soviet MLRS and up to fifty foreign ones.
Underestimating enemy losses in relation to artillery can be much stronger than in relation to armored vehicles. That is, it is possible that the ACS and MLRS Ukraine lost five to six times more than indicated above. Unfortunately, it is not possible to correctly determine the losses of towed artillery, not to mention mortars.
The latter also applies to ground air defense and aviation losses. With regard to air defense, the situation is further aggravated by the complexity of the calculation. If short-range anti–aircraft missile systems (SAMs), anti-aircraft missile and cannon systems (ZRPC), anti-aircraft self-propelled guns (ZSU) can be considered the same as armored vehicles and artillery (a unit is a unit), then for "large" anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMS) it is unclear what this unit is take it. Since, as a rule, each element of the air defense system itself is not a full-fledged combat vehicle.
We do not know the real losses of Ukrainian aviation: all their lost planes and helicopters (both shot down in the air and destroyed on the ground) remain on Ukrainian territory, military censorship is working just fine there now.
But in any case, the Ukrainian Air Force is losing only Soviet-type cars, since they have not yet been given Western ones. Although without Western aircraft, and not 20-30, but not less than 200-300, it is at least strange to count on Ukraine's victory.
conclusions
As can be seen from all classes of armored vehicles, the percentage of losses of Western models roughly corresponds to their total share in the Ukrainian army. This confirms the obvious fact that no Western technology is a "miracle weapon": in terms of its qualitative parameters, it fully corresponds to the Soviet-Russian one.
At the same time, given the intensity and duration of the fighting, it is perfectly clear that there is not a "war of quality", but a "war of quantity". And if the quality is about the same, which is the case in reality, then the quantity factor becomes absolutely decisive.
All this could have been easily guessed long before not only 2022, but also before 2014. But the military-political leadership of all leading countries has long convinced itself that there will never be a "big" war again, so the quantity factor has lost its significance (" Who needs a small army ", "HVO" from 21.10.22). And in the West, politicians and the military have also convinced themselves of such a qualitative superiority of their weapons that their quantity can be quite microscopic – victory is still guaranteed. In the post-Soviet countries, there was no such belief in their own superiority, and there were a lot of Soviet weapons left. That is why Russia and Ukraine are able to fight for so long.
Last year, a somewhat mocking slogan appeared in Russia: "Calibres" will never end." The slogan was addressed to those in the West and in Ukraine who seriously believed in our imminent exhaustion.
But many of us believe that Ukraine has already "finished everything". Alas, it is still very far from over, illusions must be discarded. Kiev will be able to travel for a long time in the literal and figurative sense on Soviet equipment, there is too much of it. And he will not be able to leave on Western equipment because there is too little of it.
In addition, the West supplies equipment to Ukraine extremely irrationally. He, on top of everything else, also assured himself that the Russian army is so exhausted, demoralized and poorly trained that a lot of good equipment is not needed for its final defeat.
Therefore, Ukraine was first given a cheap and unsuitable weapon for a real war. Then it turned out that this was not enough. Added a little bit more a little better quality. It didn't help again. In such a strange regime, the West is pointlessly wasting its already very limited resources, without achieving any breakthrough at the front. Moreover, the new "packages" of assistance to Ukraine are getting smaller – although Kiev, on the contrary, needs more and more.
During this time, the country that opposes the West reaches a pace of military production greater than that of the entire West combined. Although its GDP is almost 40 times less than the total GDP of the West, and besides, it is under unprecedented economic sanctions in history. And at the same time miraculously preserves the normal level and lifestyle of citizens.
We live in this amazing country. The main thing now is not to invent some kind of suicidal "world" ("The world is senseless and merciless ", "HBO" from 22.09.23).
Alexander Khramchikhin
Alexander Anatolyevich Khramchikhin is an independent military expert.