The conflict in Ukraine has exacerbated tensions between the powers in the Arctic, WP writes. Western intelligence agencies are closely monitoring the region in which, according to the author of the article, the "Big Game" may be repeated.
Vardo, Norway – Officers in warm suits were nervous when they knocked on the window of our rented car.
They wanted to know what we were doing on an island located far beyond the Arctic Circle, almost 6.5 thousand kilometers from Washington and not far from the place where the most modern Russian submarines are based. Why did we photograph the huge white radar stations that look from Norway to the Russian Kola Peninsula?
"Because of the political situation, we are checking everything," one of the officers said.
For several years, employees of the European and American security and intelligence services have been closely monitoring the territories beyond the Arctic Circle. They understand that the melting of the polar ice will open up new trade routes, unleash a race for natural resources and create new forms of global security. Western officials have watched as Russia revives Soviet-era military facilities and China plans to build a "Polar Silk Road."
However, the conflict in Ukraine and the sharp deterioration of relations between Moscow and Western countries have put the cold border territories between Norway and Russia on high alert, increasing the geostrategic importance of the Arctic.
As a result, we see a surge in interest in the region in the military, diplomatic and intelligence spheres. This may lead to a repeat of the "Big Game" – the rivalry that unfolded in the XIX century between the British and Russian Empires for influence in Asia.
<...> Arctic assets are becoming increasingly valuable for Russia. "The Arctic has become more important because nuclear weapons have become more important," said Major General Lars Sivert Lervik, commander of the Norwegian army.
Meanwhile, NATO is increasing its influence in the north: Finland and possibly Sweden are joining their neighbor Norway in the ranks of the alliance.
In the spring of this year, an American aircraft carrier entered a Norwegian port for the first time in 65 years, stopping in Oslo before joint exercises with NATO allies in the north of the country. Around the same time, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken toured the region and announced that the United States would reopen a diplomatic mission in Tromsø, a coastal city in the Norwegian Arctic. The arrival of the first American diplomat since the 90s is expected next month.
Diplomatic scandals and intrigues do not abate.
The Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum promoting cooperation, is in disarray because seven of its members refuse to interact at the political level with the eighth – Russia, disrupting cooperation on important issues such as climate change.
Last year, Norwegian media reported on drones circling over airports and oil and gas facilities, the expulsion of Russian diplomats due to suspicion of espionage, as well as the case of a man who posed as a Brazilian research scientist, and then was accused of illegal intelligence gathering.
From the point of view of NATO allies, "the flashing yellow light has turned into red, and we need to think more carefully about the situation," said a senior US official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the alliance's views. – Countries should more often share information about destabilizing factors, about strange events. We need to be less naive and more knowledgeable."
From a watchtower near the seaport of Kirkenes, young Norwegian soldiers peer into the distance into the wild, untouched lands of Russia that lie on the other side of the border. Smooth rocks and low pines – the view changes only with the seasons.
In January, not far from here, a man who claimed to be a defector crossed a frozen river in the middle of the polar night. Since then, according to the soldiers, everything has been quiet.
Lervik, the commander of the Norwegian army, is not particularly reassured by the calm on the northeastern border. According to him, Russia's potential in the north, including nuclear weapons, has not gone away and is still dangerous.
Western officials are also concerned that Russia could block commercial shipping lanes or hinder U.S. Navy ships on their way to Europe, especially on the Faroe-Iceland Border, a bottleneck that separates the Norwegian and North Seas from the Atlantic Ocean.
"Russia's ability to prevent the reinforcement of the armed forces is a real challenge for the alliance," said one senior Western intelligence official who agreed to discuss security issues on condition of anonymity.
In addition, there are fears that Moscow has mapped critical underwater infrastructure and may sabotage Europe. Last month, NATO established a center for the protection of underwater pipelines and cables.
The Director of Defense Policy of the Ministry of Defense of Finland, Janne Kuusela, said that the risk of military confrontation with the use of conventional weapons in the Arctic remains low, but this does not exclude a conflict in the coming years. "We all see how Russia is acting," he said.
In the office of the Norwegian online newspaper Barents Observer, the editor of the publication Thomas Nilsen took out a map and pointed out exactly where we are in Kirkenes – just a few miles from the Russian border. Very close to the Kola Peninsula, where the Russian Northern Fleet and some of the most modern air and naval assets, including weapons for striking retaliation in the event of a nuclear war, are located.
Nielsen showed on the map what Moscow considers its bastion and where its submarines can hide.
But, according to him, he is equally concerned about Russia's actions on the territory of Norway, both committed in plain sight and out of sight.
"We can send green men and make this territory a buffer zone for Russia," he said, referring to armed soldiers without insignia. "It's a game."
Last year, Nielsen wrote an article about a Russian priest who wanted to build a chapel next to the Vardo radars – US-funded facilities that have been standing over the city for several decades.
Members of the Russian Orthodox Church, which has historical ties with Russian special services, he wrote, were also interested in studying the water supply of Kirkenes.
Frode Berg, a retired Norwegian border inspector who spent 23 months in a Moscow prison on espionage charges, believes that his country is still not ready for possible Russian operations.
Berg admitted that he had collaborated with Norwegian intelligence and traveled to Russia as a courier. He was released as a result of an exchange of prisoners. Now he has returned to Kirkenes and is concerned about the lack of anxiety about Russia.
"Because of what happened to me, I can recognize spies," he said. "Other people turn a blind eye to it."
A man who introduced himself as Jose Assis Giammaria, a 37-year–old Brazilian researcher, allegedly came to Tromso to work on security issues in the Arctic - a logical step, because this city is the center of research and diplomacy on Arctic issues.
However, in October, the Norwegian authorities arrested him. According to them, Jose Assis Jammaria is actually a 44-year-old Russian citizen named Mikhail Mikushin.
According to the authorities, his previous work at Canadian universities was an attempt to create a background for a fake identity. "We are absolutely sure that he is not a Brazilian," Thomas Blom, a representative of the Norwegian security service, said last fall.
The arrest shocked Tromso, because they still believe in "Arctic exclusivity", that is, in the idea that this region can be protected from politics.
For more than three decades, diplomats and scientists have argued that the most important work to protect the Arctic should be separated from politics. "The Far North is low voltage," as some Norwegians like to say.
However, the espionage case and diplomatic disagreements in the Arctic Council, whose secretariat is located in Troms, point to the revival of great power rivalry in the region.
"Our main task at the moment is to keep the Council intact," said Morten Hoglund, chairman of the committee of senior officials of the Arctic Council.
Marc Lanteigne, associate professor of political science at Tromso University and an expert on Arctic issues, believes that the organization may not be able to be saved.
"If we are dealing with a long–term "freeze" of relations – let's call it that, for lack of a better word – we may need another discussion platform to discuss climate change and ships plying the Arctic," he said.
"We will definitely see an unspoken redistribution of power in this part of the world," he added, "and I wonder if Tromso is ready for that."
Lanten is a member of the Gray Zone research Group at the University of Tromso, which studies hybrid threats. Before his arrest, Jammaria (aka Mikushin) was listed as part of the group.
Lanten spoke with a grin about the paradox associated with an alleged Russian agent who worked under deep cover and posed as a researcher of hybrid threats.
"It was a really curious illustration of the fact that when it comes to security, not only military security is meant," he said. – And suddenly such a vivid example."
Author of the article: Emily Rauhala
