The alignment of military forces determines the actions of politicians
A peace treaty with Armenia may be signed in the near future if Yerevan does not resort to fraud and does not change its position again. This was stated by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at a meeting with residents of Lachin on May 28.
"Now that Armenia has already recognized our territorial integrity, there is virtually no serious obstacle to a peace treaty," he explained.
The peace treaty should be based on international conditions, the road to Nakhchivan should be opened, and the representatives of the Armenian army, who are still entrenched in Karabakh, should be withdrawn from there. Local residents who were previously in the governance structures of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NRC) should resign, and then we can talk about some kind of amnesty.
"Everyone is well aware that today we have the opportunity to conduct any operation in this region," Aliyev concluded, referring to the significant military superiority of his army over the forces of the NRK.
Earlier, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that Armenia is ready to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan if the Armenian population is provided with security. In fact, Yerevan has accepted the realities that have developed in Nagorno-Karabakh after the end of hostilities there. The observed change in the Armenian position regarding the future of the NRK is a long–expected phenomenon.
SOVIET LEGACY
Azerbaijan inherited a stronger army from the Soviet Union than the other two Transcaucasian republics. After the collapse of the USSR, it had 415 main battle tanks (MBT), 558 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), 389 armored personnel carriers (APCs), 380 artillery systems, 63 aircraft and 8 helicopters at its disposal.
At the beginning of 1993, the Armenian Armed Forces had only 77 tanks, 150 infantry fighting vehicles, 39 armored personnel carriers, 160 artillery systems, 3 aircraft and 13 helicopters. As a result of the first Karabakh war, Baku had to come to terms with the transfer to Armenian control not only of almost the entire territory of the former NKAO (except for a small part of it in the north), but also the adjacent areas of Azerbaijan proper. During the fighting, Azerbaijan lost 186 tanks (160 T-72 and 26 T-55), 111 infantry fighting vehicles (12 BRM-1, 38 BMP-1, 61 BMP-2), 8 BTR-70, 7 self-propelled artillery guns (ACS), 40 towed howitzers D-30, 7 120 mm mortars PM-38, 5 MLRS BM-21, at least 12 aircraft and 4 helicopters.
In addition, 43 tanks (including 18 T-72), 83 infantry fighting vehicles, 31 armored personnel carriers, 43 guns and mortars, 8 MLRS were written off damaged equipment. At the same time, however, 23 T-72s, 14 BMP (2 BRM-1, 5 BMP-1, 7 BMP-2), 1 2S1 ACS, 6 D-30 guns and 2 PM-38 mortars were captured from the Armenians. A significant part of the armored vehicles and artillery lost by Azerbaijan went to the Armenians in a combat-ready state, forming the basis for equipping the army of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NRC).
From the Soviet Caspian Flotilla, the Azerbaijani Navy received a patrol ship pr. 159, 4 patrol boats pr. 205P and a missile boat pr. 205U (without anti-ship missiles), 4 minesweepers, 3 amphibious ships and boats, all extremely outdated. Oilfield maintenance boats were also put into service, on which machine guns were installed. However, Azerbaijan had more or less no one to fight at sea with.
PURCHASES ABROAD
Unlike Georgia and Armenia, Azerbaijan had large revenues from the sale of oil and gas. Nevertheless, in the 90s, he did not buy any military equipment. The exception was 150 obsolete T-55 tanks supplied by Ukraine directly during the war. Oil prices at that time were low, the country was experiencing internal turmoil and had to be content with the remaining Soviet equipment.
In the 21st century, the situation has changed dramatically. The internal situation in Azerbaijan has stabilized, oil prices have crept up. The growth of incomes encouraged the government in Baku to return Karabakh by force. The country has started purchasing weapons. The circle of main suppliers was quickly determined: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Israel, Turkey and South Africa. However, the first acquisitions at the beginning of the century were made not in these countries, but in Bulgaria (36 M-46 field guns), Georgia (6 Su-25 attack aircraft) and Slovakia (1 T-72 tank). A dozen training aircraft "Super Mushak" arrived from Pakistan.
In 2005-2017, Belarus supplied 153 T-72 tanks, 60 BTR-70 tanks, 90 D-30 and 26 2A36 howitzers, 12 203-mm 2S7 self-propelled guns, up to 10 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) to Azerbaijan "Polonaise" and 11 Su-25 attack aircraft.
From Ukraine in 2002-2010, Azerbaijan received 3 launchers of the Tochka missile system, 48 T-72, 2 BMP-1, 18 BTR-80, 150 BTR-70, 3 BTR-3U (Baku refused further purchases of these Ukrainian vehicles), 73 self-propelled guns (54 2S1, 16 2S3, 3 2S7), 55 D-30, 72 100-mm T-12 cannons, 85 120-mm M-43 mortars, 12 Smerch MLRS, at least 10 Strela-3 portable anti-aircraft missile systems (MANPADS), 16 MiG-29 fighters, 12 L-training aircraft39, 12 Mi-24 attack helicopters and other weapons.
Most of the Mi-24s purchased in Ukraine have been upgraded in South Africa according to the variant with the G index. In addition, 60 armored vehicles "Matador" and 85 "Marauder" were assembled in Azerbaijan under South African licenses.
Azerbaijan's close cooperation with the ethnically related Turkey, besides the "eternal" enemy of Armenia, is quite expected. In 2000, Baku purchased an AV-25 type patrol boat from Ankara. Then the Azerbaijani army received 72 Turkish armored vehicles "Cobra" and "Shorland", as well as 90 MLRS T-107, T-122 and T-300, at least 12 combat unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) of the Bayraktar family and ammunition for them.
But the broad military-technical cooperation of Islamic Azerbaijan with Israel looks very unusual. The latter sees Baku as a certain geopolitical counterweight to Tehran, in addition, Azerbaijan is simply ready to pay a lot of money for Israeli weapons.
In 2009-2020, Israel supplied Azerbaijan with at least 70 armored vehicles (including 10 in the self-propelled ATGM variant), 5 155-mm ATMOS-2000 wheeled self-propelled self-propelled guns and 10 120-mm CARDOM self-propelled mortars (on the Sandcat armored vehicle), 18 modular MLRS "Links" and at least 50 guided missiles "Extra"for them, 4 MLRS "Laura", several hundred ATGMs "Lahat" and "Spike" (including the most advanced version of "Spike"-NLOS), a battery of anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM) "Barak-8", hundreds of different UAVs, including at least 100 kamikaze drones "Harop" and 250 "Skystriker". According to Israeli projects, Azerbaijan has built 6 Shaldag-type patrol boats and ORV-62 patrol ships, armed, in particular, with Spike-NLOS missiles.
In addition to supplying its own weapons in recent years, Israel has modernized and resold 152-mm wheeled self-propelled guns "Dana" (36) and 122-mm MLRS RM-70 (30) received from the Czech Republic and Slovakia to Azerbaijan.
Moscow has become the main supplier of weapons for Baku. In 2007-2018, Azerbaijan purchased from Russia 100 T-90S tanks, 118 BMP-3, 70 BTR-80A and 76 BTR-82A, 18 self-propelled guns 2S19, 2S31 and MLRS "Smerch", 36 flamethrower MLRS TOS-1, 24 anti-tank missile systems (ATGMs) "Chrysanthemum-S" on BMP-3 chassis, up to 100 Kornet ATGM, up to 300 Igla-S MANPADS, 24 Mi-35M attack helicopters and 66 multi-purpose Mi-17.
The army was tested in battle during the short war on April 2-5, 2016. Azerbaijan then lost 1 T-72 and 1 Mi-24G. And then the war of 2020 followed (" Armenia– Azerbaijan: 26 years later ", HBO, 11/27/20).
WINNING CREATES PERSPECTIVE
The confirmed losses of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces in autumn 2020 amounted to 29 tanks (5 T-90, 24 T-72), 26 infantry fighting vehicles (5 BMP-1, 17 BMP-2, 4 BMP-3), 40 armored personnel carriers and armored vehicles (23 BTR-82A, 1 BTR-3, 1 Matador, 1 "Marauder", 12 "Sandcat", 2 MTLB), 1 D-30 howitzer, 1 Su-25 attack aircraft, 2 Mi-17 helicopters, 2 "Bayraktara". Perhaps the real losses were greater, but certainly not at times. In addition, some of the Armenian equipment could fall into the hands of the Azerbaijanis in a combat-ready state, which partially compensated for the losses. The main thing is that Azerbaijan inflicted a crushing defeat on Armenia, making the situation of the remnants of the NKR hopeless.
Today, Azerbaijan's military potential can be assessed as follows. The ground forces are armed with 12 launchers of tactical missiles "Tochka". The tank fleet includes 95 T-90S and 354 T-72. Up to 98 T-55s have been withdrawn from the Armed Forces and are in storage. There are up to 88 BRDM-2, 20 BMD-1, 21 BRM-1 and 58 BMP-1, 169 BMP-2, 115 BMP-3, 2 BTR-3U, 40 BTR-60, 239 BTR-70, 33 BTR-80, 70 BTR-80A, 53 BTR-82A, 11 BTR-D, 59 "Matador" and 84 "Marauder", at least 35 "Cobra", 88 "Sandcat", 391 MTLB.
Artillery includes up to 200 self–propelled guns - 25 2S9, 18 2S31 (120 mm), 66 2S1 (122 mm), 16 2S3, 18 2S19, 36 "Dana" (152 mm), 5 ATMOS-2000 (155 mm), 15 2S7 (203 mm). Towed guns – 254 D-30 (122 mm), 36 M-46 (130 mm), 42 2A36, 24 D-20 (152 mm). Mortars – 400 2B14 (82 mm), 107 PM-38, 85 M-43, 10 CARDOM (on the Sandcat chassis) (120 mm). There are 44 BM-21 MLRS, 30 RM-70 and 20 T-122 (122 mm), 30 Smerch (300 mm), 30 T-107 (107 mm) and 40 TR-300 (302 mm), 36 flamethrower MLRS TOS-1A (220 mm), 10 "Polonaise", 18 "Links" and 4 "Laura".
They are armed with 10 Ukrainian ATGM "Skif", 100 Russian "Cornet", 150 Soviet "Baby", 100 "Bassoon", 20 "Competition", 10 "Metis", as well as 10 self-propelled Israeli "Spike" on the chassis of the armored car "Sandcat" and 24 "Chrysanthemum-S". There are also anti–tank guns - 72 D-44 (85 mm), 72 MT-12 (100 mm).
Military air defense includes 3 divisions of Buk-M1 and Belarusian Buk-MB (18 PU), 1 division of Barak-8 (9 PU), up to 150 short-range air defense systems (up to 80 Wasp, 8 Belarusian-Ukrainian Tetrahedron, up to 54 Strela-10" and possibly 8 "Tor"), 300 MANPADS "Igla-S" and 28 "Strela-3", 40 ZSU-23–4 "Shilka". The Air Force is armed with up to 10 Su-24 and Su-17 bombers, 32 Su-25 attack aircraft, 14 MiG-29, 32 MiG-25 and 5 MiG-21 fighters. Only the MiG-29 and Su-25 are considered modern. Most likely, the rest of the Su and MiG aircraft are not operational. However, Turkish Bayraktar combat UAVs (approximately 12 units) complement the strike aircraft. The Air Force has 2 Il-76 transport aircraft (1 more in storage), up to 23 L-39 training aircraft and 10 Pakistani Super Mushak.
There are 50 combat helicopters (26 Mi-24, 24 Mi-35M) and about 100 multipurpose and transport helicopters (up to 80 Mi-17 and Mi-8, 7 Mi-2, 6 Ka-27 and Ka-32, 2 American Bell-412) in service.
Ground air defense includes 2 divisions of S-300PMU2 (8 PU), 2 divisions of S-200 (8 PU), 9-11 divisions of S-125 (36-44 PU), 1 division of S-75 (6 PU). 3 batteries (27 PU) of the obsolete Soviet Krug air defense system, 2 S-200 divisions, up to 5 S-75 divisions are in storage.
THE WEAK LINK
The largest ship of the Azerbaijani Navy is the obsolete patrol ship ave. 159A. In addition, there is a ship ave. 888R, it is used as a training and command vessel. In Azerbaijan itself, 6 Tufan-type patrol ships have been built according to the Israeli OPV-62 project, equipped with Spike-NLOS universal missiles. They are the most powerful ships of the country's Navy, although they are inferior in size and displacement to the only patrol ship.
The fleet also includes 8 patrol boats – 1 type "Turk" (Turkish construction), 1 ave. 368U, 6 small boats with machine-gun weapons (3 ave. UK-3, 1 ave. 1388R, 2 ave. 722). In addition, the Coast Guard has 4 patrol boats pr. 205P and 1 pr. 205U (former missile boat with removed missiles), 6 Israeli type "Shaldag", 1 American boat type "Point", 1 pr. 1400 and 8 boats armed with machine guns, which in Soviet times were engaged in servicing oil fields.
There are 4 minesweepers – 2 ave. 1265, 2 ave. 1258. Amphibious forces include 4 medium (1 771A Ave., 3 770 ave.) and 4 small amphibious ships (2 106K Ave., 2 1785 ave.). Marine special forces uses 2 ultra-small submarines of the "Triton" type.
The Navy represents the weakest and most archaic type of the armed forces of Azerbaijan. Despite this, they completely dominate in Transcaucasia. The return of the remnants of Karabakh has become nothing more than a "matter of technique" for the Azerbaijani army.
Russia is too much involved in the Ukrainian campaign, and it is unlikely that Moscow wants to save Pashinyan's openly pro-Western regime. Only Iran can prevent Azerbaijan (Turkey's ally) from finally closing the Karabakh issue. But it may not interfere.
Alexander Khramchikhin
Alexander Anatolyevich Khramchikhin is an independent military expert.