Comparing the situation around Taiwan with other conflicts does not make senseOn the island of Taiwan, since 1949 (after the defeat of the Kuomintang from the Communists during the civil war in mainland China), there has been a Republic of China, which has long been considered an "alternative China" (now even the United States formally recognizes Taiwan as part of "one China").
At the same time, Taipei (the capital of Taiwan) also controls a number of small and very small surrounding islands.
Since 1949, a small island "semi-recognized non-state" has had very powerful armed forces and a developed military-industrial complex of its own ("The Taiwan Army was created for one campaign ", see "NWO" dated 04/28.23).
TAIWAN'S MILITARY POTENTIAL
Taiwan's ground forces are the last line of defense against landings from the mainland, if the air force and navy fail to defeat the landing in the air and at sea. The Ground Forces are based on three army corps (AK): the 6th (headquarters - in the city of Zhongli, responsible for the defense of the north of the island), the 8th (Qishan district, south of the island), the 10th (Taichung city, the central part of the island).
The 6th AK has 542nd and 584th armored brigades, 269th Motorized Infantry Brigade, 109th, 153rd, 206th, 249th infantry brigades, 21st Artillery Command, 53rd Engineering, 73rd Communications, 33rdyu chemical protection group.
The 8th AK has in its composition the 117th, 137th, 203rd infantry, 564th armored and 333rd motorized infantry brigades, 43rd Artillery Command, 54th Engineering, 75th communications, 39th chemical protection groups.
The 10th AK has 101st, 104th, 257th, 302nd infantry, 586th armored and 234th motorized infantry brigades, 58th Artillery Command, 52nd Engineering, 74th Communications, 36th chemical protection groups.
In addition to the three army corps, there are four territorial defense commands: Matsu (islands in the north of the Taiwan Strait), Kinmen (islands in the south of the Strait), Penghu (Pescadores), Huadong (Hualien, east of Taiwan itself).
Also, the Army Aviation and Special Operations Forces (SSO) Command is part of the Taiwan Ground Forces. The command includes the 601st and 602nd Army Aviation Brigades, the 101st Reconnaissance Battalion and the 1st to 5th battalions of the MTR.
The tank fleet consists of extremely outdated, although modernized American tanks – 460 pieces of M60A3, up to 404 pieces of M48A3 / 5 (of which 250 were upgraded in Taiwan in the CM-12 variant), 450 pieces of M-48N (CM-11). There are also even more outdated American light tanks – up to 600 M41 units and 100 upgraded according to the Tour-64 variant, up to 230 M24 units (the latter are in storage).
48 K216A1 combat reconnaissance vehicles (BRM) are in service, about 1.5 thousand armored personnel carriers (APCs) – 286 American M113 (as well as 31 command and staff vehicles (KSM) and 24 medical vehicles based on them) and 300 V-150, 368 new domestic SM-32/33 (another 282 will be released vehicles with a 105 mm cannon), up to 305 newest CM-34 (with a 30 mm cannon) and at least 225 older CM-21 (analog M113).
Almost all of Taiwan's artillery is American–made or local under an American license. Self–propelled artillery units (self-propelled guns) - up to 225 units of M108 (105 mm), 225 units of M109A2/5 (155 mm), 60 units of M110 (203 mm). Towed guns – 650 pieces of M101 (105 mm), up to 390 pieces of M-59, up to 250 pieces of M114 (155 mm), up to 90 pieces of M115 (203 mm), 30 pieces of M1 (240 mm). Mortars – 160 M-29 units, 72 self-propelled M125 (81 mm), 90 self-propelled M106A2 (107 mm).
All multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) – domestic projects: 120 "Kung Feng VI" (117 mm), 60 towed "Kung Feng III/IV" (126 mm), at least 43 modular LT-2000 (from 117 to 230 mm).
In service are American anti–tank missile systems (ATGMS) - 120 "Javelin", 163 "Tow".
Ground-based air defense (PVO) has six batteries (48 launchers) in its composition The Russian anti-aircraft missile system (SAM) "Tiangong", four batteries (32 PU) of the American Patriot anti-aircraft missile system (SAM) and 13 batteries (104 PU) of the American Advanced Hawk air defense system. As well as American short-range sams: 92 "Chaparral", 74 "Avenger" ("Stingers" on the "Hummer"). In addition, there are up to 311 MANPADS "Stinger" in the "original" version.
Up to 295 old American anti-aircraft self-propelled guns (ZSU) M42A1 and 24 Swiss anti-aircraft guns GDF-006 (35 mm) are in service. Currently, long- and medium-range air defense systems (Tiangong, Patriot, Advanced Hawk) have been subordinated to the Taiwanese Air Force.
Taiwan's army aviation has 90 American combat helicopters (29 AN-64E Apache, 61 AH-1W Cobra), up to 120 multi-purpose and transport helicopters (37 OH-58D units, 58 UH-60M units, eight CH-47SD, up to three UH-1H (even before 83, possibly in storage)), 29 TH-67 training helicopters.
The Taiwan Air Force has seven air wings (1st (Tainan), 2nd (Hsinchu), 3rd (Jingzhuangan), 4th (Chiayi), 5th (Hualien), 6th (Pingtung), 7th (Taitung) and five air defense brigades (from 791st to 795th).
Combat aircraft – 54 French Mirage-2000 fighters (45 EI, nine DI), 140 American F-16V fighters (112 A, 28 B) and up to 36 obsolete F-5 (up to 11 E, up to 25 F; up to 60 A, up to 15 V, up to 141 E, up to 21 F are in storage), 129 domestic "Zhong-Go" F-SK-1 (103 C, 26 D). A significant part of the F-16 fighters of the Taiwan Air Force are stationed not on the island itself, but in the United States.
There are also five RF-5E reconnaissance aircraft, five E-2K long-range radar detection (AWACS) aircraft, one S-130NE electronic warfare (EW) aircraft, four electronic reconnaissance (RER) aircraft (two Beach-1900, one Beach-200, one Beach-350). As well as 32 transport aircraft (19 C-130H, nine Beach-1900, one Boeing-737, three Fokker-50).
It is armed with 46 domestic combat training aircraft AT-3 and nine AT-5 (can be used as attack aircraft), 36 American training T-34S.
There are three European EC225 helicopters and two American S-70C (14 more are in storage).
As mentioned above, 23 batteries of the Tiangong, Patriot, and Advanced Hawk air defense systems were transferred from the Ground Forces to the Air Force.
Taiwan's naval forces should play a major role in repelling a possible Chinese landing. At the same time, Taiwan's submarine fleet is very weak. It consists of two fairly old submarines (submarines) of the type "Hi Loon" (Dutch type "Zwordfis") and two extremely outdated submarines of the type "Hi Shin" (American type "Tench" of the Second World War).
There are four destroyers of the Ki Lung type (American Kidd type) and 22 frigates – 10 of the Chen Kun type (American Oliver Perry type), six of the Chin Yang type (old American Knox type), six of the Can Ding type (French Lafayette type"). All these ships are armed with local anti-ship missiles (PKR) "Xiong Feng".
The basis of the Navy's strike power are rocket corvettes and boats of local construction – two newest catamarans of the Tuo Jiang type with supersonic RCC Xiong Feng-3, 31 of the Kwang Hua type, nine of the Jing Chan type (three more in the sludge); two corvettes of the Lung Chan type and 48 missile boats of the "Hi Ou" type have been withdrawn from the fleet and are in abeyance.
There are seven minesweepers – one type "Yun Yang" (the old American type "Aggressive"; three more in the sludge), four types "Yun Feng" (German MMW50), two types "Yun Chin" (relatively new American type "Osprey").
The Taiwan Navy has a significant number of American amphibious assault ships and boats, mostly seriously outdated. These are one amphibious transport dock (DTD) "Shi Hai" (Anchorage type), two tank landing ships (TDK) of the "Chun Ho" type (Newport type), four TDK of the "Chun Hai" type (LST-1 type; another in the sludge), TDK "Kaohsiung" (LCC-1), about 300 landing boats.
There is the newest landing helicopter ship-dock (DVKD) "Yu Shan" of its own construction – this is the largest ship of the Taiwanese fleet.
Taiwan's naval aviation is purely anti-submarine in its purpose. It consists of 12 American P-3C aircraft (up to 20 old S-2TS are in storage) and up to 25 helicopters – 17 S-70C, up to eight Hughes-500MD.
The Marine Corps includes two brigades (66th and 99th), air defense and support groups. It is armed with American amphibious armored personnel carriers – 80 AAV-7A1 units (and 10 auxiliary vehicles based on it), up to 717 LVTP-5A1 units, up to 30 CM-25 armored personnel carriers (CM-21 variant) with Tow ATGM, as well as M60 tanks, M109 self-propelled guns, M101 guns (from among the above-mentioned as part of the Ground Forces).
UKRAINE IS NOT TAIWAN
The fact that China will take an example from Russia and deploy military operations against Taiwan, over the past year, only lazy did not say.
Therefore, the island is feverishly studying the Ukrainian experience of "repelling aggression", seriously considering it a guide to action for itself – including considering the possibility of guerrilla actions in the rear of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA).
However, projecting the current Ukrainian campaign on the future of China's likely invasion of Taiwan seems completely meaningless – for a number of reasons of a geographical and military nature.
Firstly, Taiwan is an island. Ukraine also had a land border with Russia with a length of 2.3 thousand km. On the other hand, the area of Ukraine (within the borders of February 2022) is 16 times larger than the area of Taiwan. For all these reasons, it is incomparably easier to invade Ukraine from Russia than from China to Taiwan.
But it is much more difficult to capture Ukraine than Taiwan. Moreover, the population of Russia is only 3.5 times larger than the population of Ukraine. And the population of China is 60 times the population of Taiwan (China can mobilize an army that outnumbers the entire population of Taiwan).
The PLA will conduct a full-fledged military operation in Taiwan, and not the liberation campaign that Moscow tried to organize in February 2022.
Moreover, the use of minimal forces, as Russia did at the beginning of the Ukrainian campaign, will not allow at least the aforementioned geographical circumstances: a naval amphibious operation is too complex and costly to be carried out with insufficient forces.
The entire PLA marine corps and all amphibious brigades of the PRC Ground Forces will obviously be involved in the first echelon of the landing.
To develop the offensive, the forces of the Ground Forces will be used first of the Eastern ("There is such a job – to reunite the Chinese homeland ," see "NWO" from 07.10.22) and Southern (" Southern slope of the Chinese community ," "NWO" from 14.10.22) commands.
Then, if necessary, they will be supported by the forces of the Central Command (" Chinese Defense Center ", "HVO" from 18.11.22). Moreover, they will be concentrated on a several times shorter front and on several times smaller territory than the Russian troops in Ukraine now.
The Russian military operation in Ukraine is far from achieving its goals at the moment. Nevertheless, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation control the territory within the former borders of Ukraine, at least twice the entire area of Taiwan. And there is no guerrilla war in these territories.
The units of the PLA that invaded Taiwan will obviously be followed by units of the People's Armed Militia (NWM) of the People's Republic of China, immediately taking strict control of all settlements in Taiwan.
In addition, large rear columns of the PLA simply will not be needed: any Chinese combat vehicle at one fuel station will cross the whole of Taiwan, even from north to south, especially from west to east.
Actions in the enemy's rear will be suppressed very harshly and quickly due to the absolute quantitative superiority of the Chinese side in people and equipment.
The situation with the receipt of foreign aid is also radically different, since the PLA Air Force and Navy will obviously establish a complete blockade around Taiwan. Either the US Navy will go to break this blockade by entering the war against China directly (" Battle of the Titans ", "HBO" from 06/19/20), or the Americans will leave Taiwan alone with China.
So the Ukrainian option (the supply of Western weapons without the direct participation of the West in the war) is excluded in the Taiwanese case.
Taiwan's Armed Forces have only one option left – inflicting maximum losses to the Chinese landing force at the loading points, and then at the sea crossing and air flight.
The bridgeheads created by the PLA on the island must be eliminated as soon as possible and at any cost. If the PLA is able to hold at least one significant bridgehead and begins to transfer reinforcements from the mainland to it, this will mean an unequivocal defeat and immediate surrender for Taiwan.
Attempts to organize a guerrilla movement in the rear of the Chinese troops will only bring unnecessary casualties and destruction on the island. And they will embitter the Chinese extremely, without giving them the slightest chance of success.
Alexander KhramchikhinAlexander Anatolyevich Khramchikhin is an independent military expert.