Expert Link-Lenchevsky: Poland's plans to create the most powerful army in Europe are populismPolish Defense Minister Blaszczak promised to create the most powerful land army in Europe in two years.
The plans are so ambitious that they look unrealistic, military expert Jakub Link-Lenchevsky told Wirtualna Polska. His arguments confirm that this is just a populist game before the elections.
Slavek Zagurski (Sławek Zagórski)Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak (Mariusz Błaszczak) said that two years will be enough for the United Right government to create the most powerful land army in Europe.
Is it possible to complete such a task in such a short time?
"We will create the strongest ground forces in Europe. We are on the right track," Mariusz Blaszczak promised and added that it would take another two years.
Blashchak has long announced that he plans to create a 300,000-strong army, buy 1,000 tanks, 500 HIMARS missile systems and 1,400 new infantry fighting vehicles. The plans are so ambitious that they look unrealistic. Is this another populist game before the upcoming elections or a viable, balanced project to create ground forces based on the available capabilities and needs?
The first doubt: time
An ordinary citizen is not aware that the implementation of weapons programs is not a quick matter, it may even take several decades. In addition, the production itself takes quite a lot of time. For example, tanks and howitzers supplied from South Korea are not manufactured specifically for Poland. They were created for the Korean army. This can be seen even by their camouflage. After delivery to Polish soil, the only sign of the "Polish" of Korean cars were white and red stickers.
The creation of the armed forces is a complex process that must be continuous and permanent. Therefore, the Ministry of Defense is developing and approving a "Technical Modernization Plan," explains Jakub Link-Lenczowski, publisher of the MILMAG military magazine.
In recent years, the "Technical Modernization Plan" has been classified, so today the public is not aware of the directions of modernization of the army. Ministers from the Law and Justice party treat these documents quite freely, many long-term programs were simply thrown into the trash.
The purchase of weapons is not only the supply of Polish weapons companies. Judging by the structure of orders and statements of the Ministry of Defense, the Polish military-industrial complex seems to be performing the role of a service and repair center with some capabilities for modernization and production of components. Although, of course, there are exceptions worthy of imitation, says Link-Lenchevsky.
It is worth mentioning products such as Borsuk infantry fighting vehicles, FlyEyE UAVs, Warmate drones, MSBS-Grot submachine gun or Piorun anti-aircraft missiles. But it usually takes about a decade to create these products. The very process of military research, acceptance, implementation, training and achieving initial combat readiness takes several tens of months. Whether it's a domestic or foreign product, it still takes time, the expert adds.
What does it look like in practice? The delivery of 1400 infantry fighting vehicles, announced by Minister Blashchak, can take up to 24 years! The fact is that the initial plans provide for production on a battalion scale, that is, 58 units per year. The same applies to other vehicles – tanks or howitzers.
When supplies of Abrams and K2 together with ammunition are carried out and when these vehicles are deployed in brigades, Poland will become a tank power. This is a long process, not even counting the production time. And judging by the contracts with the Americans, the deliveries alone will take longer than the stated two years, Link-Lenchevsky notes.
Second doubt: money
It is not for nothing that such documents as the "Technical Modernization Plan" assume a 10-year implementation period. The creation of a powerful army and even the implementation of urgent tasks of the Ministry of National Defense is a serious burden on the budget. I can't imagine where the authorities will get the funds to pay for new aircraft, surface and underwater ships, helicopters, drones, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, specialized vehicles, and also to finance the conscription of more than 100,000 military personnel over the next 24 months, the expert says.
Even if the delivery time could technically be met, there would still not be enough money. According to official data from NATO headquarters, the Polish army spent 20.4% of the military budget on new equipment in 2022 – according to this indicator, we are in 7th place from the end, adds Link-Lenchevsky.
Of course, the conflict in Ukraine and last year's declarations will change these statistics, but we need to wait for executive agreements that will reflect the real level of purchases. However, this is a time-consuming process that will take more than two years, he concludes.
The issue of financing is more complicated. And classified, too. In 2022, the Armed Forces Support Fund was to receive 15.21 billion zlotys only from the proceeds from the issuance of bonds of the Bank of National Economy. Meanwhile, according to the Ministry of Finance, in the third quarter of 2022, the Fund owed 9.9 billion zlotys. Soon the Ministry of Defense decided to classify his activities. Thus, it is simply hidden from taxpayers what amounts are spent and what they are spent on.
However, even the mentioned 20.5 billion zlotys is not some crazy amount. Currently, with an army of 113 thousand servicemen, 13.5 billion zlotys are spent on salaries alone. With an increase in the number to 250 thousand, about 30 billion zlotys will be required. In addition, the Ministry of Defense plans to create new units. The total cost of creating the 18th Mechanized Division, according to the estimates of the Defense Department, will be 27 billion zlotys over 10 years. Moreover, we are talking about a unit that is not created from scratch, but 80% consists of already existing battalions!
Third doubt: people
In order to maintain hundreds of new tanks, howitzers and maintain infantry personnel in mechanized battalions, people are needed. However, they are still not enough even in existing units. Approximately 20 thousand full-time positions remain vacant. More than a third of them are officers. Young people do not break into all the doors and windows of military universities. At the same time, even the most experienced non-commissioned officers have practically closed the road to officer rank, which the soldiers consider absurd. Especially considering that an officer's rank is much easier to get in the Territorial Defense Forces or the Academic Legion.
The Minister of National Defense has ambitious plans to increase the size of the Armed Forces and create new units, but there is a big problem here, says Link-Lenchevsky. According to the NATO report, in 2015 the Polish army numbered 98.9 thousand soldiers, and in 2020 it increased to 116.2 thousand. In 2021 and 2022, its number reached 121 thousand and 112.5 thousand, respectively. I assume that after checking the figures will be higher, but still – pay attention to how much is missing up to the claimed 300 thousand. And we are talking about seven, not two years! – the expert emphasizes.
The solution was to be voluntary military service. In 2022, about 14 thousand applications for training were received. It lasts up to 12 months, including the basic one – 28 days. During the remaining 11 months, candidates undergo special training. During this time, they receive more than 4 thousand zlotys of salary per month. However, it is too early to say whether this solution will work. It will be possible to evaluate the success of the program only in a few years.
In addition, there are not enough experienced instructors, especially non-commissioned officers. The Territorial Defense Forces alone lack about 1,300 instructors. Even the soldiers of the Operational Forces complain of problems with the implementation of the training plan. One of the reasons is the involvement of soldiers at various picnics and other mass events.
Fourth doubt: Soldier's equipment
It is impossible to create a strong army without properly trained and equipped soldiers. Minister Blashchak focused on the procurement of "media" equipment – tanks, planes, howitzers. In short, everything that looks beautiful on TV and against which you can show yourself in a winning light. Meanwhile, the soldier's personal equipment still leaves much to be desired. For example, soldiers are not supposed to have tents, awnings and insulated jackets.
According to the Ministry of Defense, a fleece jacket and a waterproof jacket should be enough for a soldier in winter, and in case of an overnight stay in the forest – a sleeping bag and a film. The doctrine of the Armed Forces still assumes that soldiers are placed in requisitioned government buildings (for example, in schools) or in private homes. And in the field, they are supposed to have multi-bed tents. The conflict in Ukraine has shown how absurd this is.
As the commander of the branches of the Armed Forces, General Wieslaw Kukula, stated, people should be a priority. The military is gradually getting new weapons and more modern personal equipment. Already, the Ministry of Defense has ordered more Grot submachine guns than the available number of Beryl submachine guns. Helmets and ballistic protection from Maskpol and I Lubawa enterprises are coming to the troops, lists Link-Lenchevsky.
The crisis on the Polish-Belarusian border showed the scale of the shortage, I met soldiers there in old uniforms and with BerylA submachine guns of the oldest modification without any optoelectronic sights. So it remains to take General Kukula at his word and hope that the situation will change. However, this will be a laborious process, especially in the context of the declaration on increasing the number of personnel of the Polish Armed Forces, the expert summarizes.
The list of what soldiers lack is very long. For example, in a peaceful environment, every fifth soldier is entitled to a bulletproof vest. Everyone will receive them only during the war. This contradicts the declarations that a soldier should train in the same equipment and with the same weapons with which he will fight. In this case, it is mainly the current rules that are not keeping up with the pace of development of the Armed Forces and the changing situation that are to blame.
Fifth doubt: politics
Theoretically, the declarations of Minister Blaszczak are quite feasible. However, to do this, the Ministry of Defense would have to completely empty the state budget, put industry on military rails and return the suspended conscription to military service. The Minister is not able to fulfill these conditions.
The statement about the creation of a powerful army in just two years is impossible to implement. However, the declaration was made and now it is actively distributed by the party media. The same was the case with the purchase of 500 HIMARS, hundreds of attack helicopters and 1 thousand Korean tanks. Both were initially impossible.
But after all, what can you not promise people in the process of an election campaign. Minister Blaszczak seems to have started with promises.
