Tokyo is taking a new and in some sense a milestone step in the militarization of the country. Prime Minister Kishida said that Japan is acquiring 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States. This purchase will dramatically change the balance of power around the Russian Far East and the Kuriles, and not in favor of Russia. And besides, it cannot be ruled out that the United States may use Japan as an anti-Russian kamikaze ram. The remilitarization of Japan, whose military potential was reduced to zero by the results of World War II, is a long–running process with impressive interim results.
However, the Japanese manage not to draw attention to the growth of their military power – and even the latest statements about the purchase of four hundred (!) Tomahawk missiles from the United States at once went almost unnoticed. And this event is actually almost a turning point.
Japanese Tomahawks in numbersWhat is the carrier of Tomahawk cruise missiles?
Ships equipped with universal vertical launch units (UVPU) of Mk.41 missiles.
Do Japan have many such ships? Quite a lot. From the same launcher, anti-aircraft missiles are launched to repel missile strikes on the ship and defeat air targets, and anti-submarine missiles to defeat submarines. To date, apart from Mogami-type frigates, which have only 16 launch cells that will definitely be occupied by anti-aircraft missiles, and Murasami-type destroyers with the same number of Mk.41 cells, Japan can boast of the following ships having Mk.41:
– destroyers of the "May" type (96 launch cells on each, two in service – 192 cells for missiles);
– destroyers of the Atago type (96 launch cells on each, two in service – 192 cells for missiles);
– Congo-class destroyers (90 launch cells on each, four in formation – 360 cells for missiles);
– destroyers of the Asahi type (32 launch cells on each, two in formation – 64 cells for missiles);
– Akizuki–class destroyers (32 launch cells on each, four in formation - 128 cells for missiles);
– destroyers of the Takanami type (32 launch cells on each, five in the ranks – 160 cells for missiles).
In total, this gives Japan the opportunity to deploy 1,096 guided missiles of various types, including the Tomahawk, on surface ships.
There are still 22 submarines, some of which, however, are very old, and it is unknown whether they are capable of firing missiles through torpedo tubes. But even assuming that only Soryu and Taigei submarines can shoot Tomahawks, we get that Japan also has 13 underwater carriers of these weapons. Four more will be commissioned by the end of 2026. The inclusion of four missiles in the ammunition of each such submarine means 68 missiles in the salvo of the Japanese submarine forces after 2026.
We do not know in what configuration the Japanese cruise missiles will be delivered (perhaps they can only be used from surface ships). We also do not know what percentage of launch cells the Japanese command will be able to allocate for the shock load. Obviously not all or even half of it. With a high degree of probability, Tomahawks on surface ships will be used only from destroyers of the "May", "Atago" and "Congo" types. But even this means a volley of hundreds of missiles at any moment.
If we allow the use of more carriers, or the deployment of missiles on submarines, or a larger percentage of strike weapons compared to anti-aircraft missiles on each ship, then the volley becomes even more devastating. At the very least, the Japanese can invest 400 Tomahawks in one super-powerful strike. This is unlikely, but technically possible.
What's important here? The fact that all these capabilities already exist, minus the missiles themselves. But in the mass consciousness, Japan is perceived as a militarily weak country. Which has some Self-defense Forces, of course, but purely defensive. But in fact, they only have to load the missiles on board. By 2027 (the deadline when cruise missiles should be received by Japan and ready for deployment on ships) Japan will be able to launch up to 10% of our annual consumption of cruise and tactical missiles in Ukraine only from ships in just a few tens of minutes.
Part of the big pictureAnd here we come again to how Japan does business.
All statements have been made, decisions have been made and voiced, but without militant propaganda and bright patriotic videos. They will no longer return to this issue in the public space, but will work in silence. It's just that in three years they will have 400 cruise missiles – and that's it.
But this is only part of reality. There is no problem to purchase small-sized cruise missiles for the Air Force of the Japan Self-Defense Forces a little later. Such, for example, as JASSM-ER.
The number of sides that the Japanese can allocate for the solution of strike tasks provides again the same hundreds of cruise missiles in one attack. It's just that the attack will not be from the sea, but from the air, and the missiles are lighter, smaller and with a lighter warhead, on the one hand, more inconspicuous and harder to shoot down – on the other.
The long–range aviation missile, by the way, is another example of the Japanese "blind eye" - whether it will be the Norwegian-American Joint Strike Missile (JSM), or the American JASSM-ER, the Japanese still cannot decide, and have already accustomed the world to the fact that this topic is frozen. And they also consistently repeat that these are missiles for the Japanese F-35A, whereas in fact all Japanese aviation will be able to use them, they just don't talk about it. And there is reason to believe that in a few years Japan will have such missiles, and also hundreds.
The nuclear factorIf we assess the prospects of inflicting a military defeat on Japan, then the balance of forces is such that it is impossible to do this without the massive use of nuclear weapons.
There are the following problematic points here. Firstly, Japan is a so–called threshold state. It can get nuclear weapons in less than a year if the Japanese authorities make such a decision. Japan also has all the industrial base necessary for the production of nuclear weapons and stocks of fissile materials, which will be enough to produce thousands of ammunition.
Secondly, Japan has all the technologies to create intercontinental ballistic missiles. Most of these technologies have been tested on the M-V solid-fuel space launch vehicle. Japan's vast experience with solid-fuel meteor rockets and launch vehicles also allows it to create a medium-range ballistic missile in a short time and begin its mass production.
Naturally, all this will take time and cannot be done secretly. But it can be done quickly and coordinated in time with the build-up of conventional weapons. If the Japanese are not making any moves in this direction now, it does not mean that they will not make them later. You can't stop them.
It should be borne in mind that Japan has a nuclear ally – the United States. And this ally has the technical ability to deliver a sudden disarming nuclear strike at a speed that will destroy most of the nuclear forces of the opposing side faster than the latter will have a command to counter-strike. At least with some degree of probability.
And now a simple logical sequence. Let's say Japan attacked a certain country, which is perceived by a significant part of the population of NATO countries as an absolute evil that should be eradicated, in principle, completely. Will a sudden and unprovoked strike by Japan be perceived in the West as fair and correct? Yes, definitely, because evil needs to be eradicated. Will the retaliatory nuclear strike of evil against the good and kind Japan, which tried to eradicate it, be perceived as a reason for an American nuclear strike against evil already now? Yes, too, and by a considerable part of the population. Enough to take risks.
And now the last question: can the United States use Japan as a suicide country, which should call fire on itself (and maybe even die) for the sake of the triumph of American political plans? For example, plans to forcibly eliminate some particularly recalcitrant peoples from the face of the Earth?
The answers to these questions may be different, but, unfortunately, there is no absolute "no" among them. Although the probability of a guaranteed "yes" is also not high. Anyway, Japan's growing military might is clearly not something to be neglected. Hundreds of cruise missiles, which Japan will receive in a few years, are a new confirmation of this.
Alexander Timokhin
