In the event of the outbreak of hostilities, Rabat's position will be unenviableMorocco waged a long and persistent anti-colonial war against France.
Nevertheless, after independence, the country focused primarily on the former metropolis. In particular, in the 1950s and 1960s, the Moroccan Armed Forces received a standard "postcolonial" set of French military equipment: AMX-13 light tanks, AML-60/90 armored vehicles, various light and training aircraft and helicopters, patrol boats.
HIS MAJESTY'S ARMYAt the same time, much more serious equipment was supplied to Morocco by the main geopolitical antagonists of that era – the United States and the USSR.
From the United States, already in the mid-1960s, the country received about 90 "real" M113 armored personnel carriers and 24 equally "real" F-5A/B fighters.
Moscow's assistance was even more solid (and this assistance was not hindered either by the fact that Morocco is a monarchy, or by the fact that it has placed American military bases and even nuclear weapons on its territory). 120 T-54 tanks, 30 152-mm ML-20 howitzers and 36 BM-21 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), two Il-28 bombers and 12 MiG-17 fighters (with the addition of two combat training MiG-15UTI), 12 anti-aircraft guns came from the USSR KS-19. These deliveries were supplemented by the receipt of 95 OT-64 armored personnel carriers from the Czechoslovak Republic.
However, by the early 1970s, arms supplies to Morocco from socialist countries had stopped and were no longer resumed. And since the mid-1970s, Morocco has been involved in a very difficult war in Western Sahara ("Waiting for a new war", "HBO", 25.05.18), where the POLISARIO Front became its direct opponent, and Algeria, which was backed by those same socialist countries, became its indirect opponent. Accordingly, Rabat was now oriented only to the West.
In the 1970s and 1980s, Morocco received 108 combat vehicles with heavy weapons AMX-10RC, over 600 different armored personnel carriers and armored vehicles, 64 self-propelled artillery units (ACS) Mk F3, 50 Mirage-F1 fighter-bombers, 24 Alpha Jet combat training aircraft from the former metropolis, 30 SA342 Gazelle attack helicopters and 34 multi-purpose SA330 Puma helicopters, three patrol and landing craft each.
Over the same period, 225 M48 tanks, more than 300 M113 armored personnel carriers, more than 80 self-propelled guns and towed guns, 37 Chaparel anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMs), 100 anti-aircraft self-propelled guns and anti-aircraft guns, over 30 F-5 fighters (more advanced E/F modifications) came from the USA, up to 20 C-130N transport aircraft, including two in the tanker variant.
109 SK-105 Cuirassier light tanks were received from Austria, 55 UR–416 armored personnel carriers from Germany, 240 RAM combat reconnaissance vehicles from Israel, 60 Iland armored vehicles and 85 Ratel armored personnel carriers from South Africa, 30 L-118 guns from Great Britain, more than from Italy 60 multi–purpose and transport helicopters, from Spain – a frigate, four missile and six patrol boats, from Denmark - four patrol boats. Egypt, which had quarreled with the USSR, handed over to Morocco 25 Czechoslovakian armored personnel carriers OT-62, 18 Soviet 130-mm guns M-46 and up to 200 portable anti-aircraft missile systems (MANPADS) "Strela-2". From Libya, Morocco received 60 Brazilian armored vehicles of ITS-11 (at the same time, Tripoli was actively arming the POLISARIO almost simultaneously – for Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, such behavior was quite normal).
AFTER THE ARMISTICEThe truce of Morocco with the POLISARIO was signed in 1991.
The losses of the Moroccan army in ground equipment are not exactly known – but, apparently, they are very large. At least 37 T-54s, four AMX-13s, 30 Ilands were destroyed in battle or captured by the POLISARIO. There were losses of AML-90, VAB, Ratels, M101 and L-118 guns, mortars. On the other hand, at least 10 D-30 howitzers (apparently supplied by Algeria) were captured and adopted by the Moroccans.
The losses of the Moroccan Air Force amounted to at least eight Mirage and F-5, two combat training aircraft SM-170 "Magister" and one T-6G, one C-130 transport, one SA330 "Puma" helicopter.
The army demanded reconstruction, although the war had absorbed a huge amount of money. Deliveries from the USA in the 1990s amounted to 427 M60 tanks, 60 203-mm M110 self-propelled anti-tank missile systems (ATGMS) M-901 ("Tow" on M113), 50 M163 ZSU, one Newport-class tank landing ship. Saudi Arabia presented Rabat with 35 British FH-70 howitzers. France received 10 additional Mk F3 self-propelled guns and five patrol ships.
In the XXI century, the economic situation of Morocco improved, while there was a need to somehow compensate for the significant increase in the potential of the Algerian Armed Forces ("Algeria is rapidly arming", "HVO", 27.01.23).
The United States remains the main supplier of weapons to Morocco. They sold Rabat 24 F-16C/D fighter-bombers and a significant amount of precision–guided aviation ammunition, several hundred M113 armored personnel carriers in various modifications, 130 M109A5 self-propelled guns (another 40 M109s were bought in Switzerland and 43 in Belgium), as well as 272 M1A1 Abrams tanks (112 more such vehicles are expected to be delivered).
Relations with France have been reactivated, which has upgraded Morocco's 27 remaining Mirage-F1 aircraft and sold it three newest frigates – two Floreal and one FREMM type. Three more modern Sigma-type frigates were bought in Holland. Four C-27J transport aircraft were received from Italy. Belgium, in addition to self-propelled guns, supplied Morocco with more than 120 BMP and APC. The Edgder armored personnel carrier and Bayraktar combat UAVs are being purchased in Turkey.
As in almost all African countries, Chinese equipment appeared in Morocco – 54 VT-4 tanks, 12 300-mm MLRS AR-2 (PHL-03), up to 50 HJ-8 ATGMs, three batteries of the Sky Dragon-50 air defense system. The country has returned to the procurement of Soviet and Russian weapons: 100 T-72 tanks were purchased in Belarus, 12 Tunguska anti–aircraft missile and cannon complexes (ZRPC), several hundred Kornet and Konkurs ATGMs were purchased in Russia.
Morocco took a limited part in the intervention of the Arabian monarchies in Yemen, having lost one F-16C there for an unclear reason.
WAITING FOR THE WARThe confrontation between Algeria and Morocco, formerly part of the French colonial empire, has dragged on for more than half a century.
It never turned into a direct war, but there is no end in sight to the confrontation. The neighbors in the west of the Maghreb continue to exchange extremely harsh statements, continuing to build up military power.
Algeria gained independence through the hardest anti-colonial war ("Combat operations of France after World War II", "HBO", 11/15/19) against a million French contingent. It was thanks to this war that Morocco gained independence peacefully. "In gratitude," Morocco presented territorial claims to its neighbor and in October 1963 carried out a direct military invasion of Algeria.
Cuba came to Algeria's aid. The invasion stopped there, and the "sediment" remained, and very strong. Therefore, when Morocco started the war for Western Sahara, Algeria provided comprehensive assistance to the POLISARIO Front. He supplied the Saharans with the most modern Soviet weapons, and occasionally fought directly against Morocco (for example, Algerian sams shot down Moroccan planes over Western Sahara from their territory). In 1987, the parties even conducted a prisoner exchange.
Several times the countries seemed to reconcile by signing political and economic agreements, but peace did not work out. Since 1994, the border between the two countries has been officially closed, although contraband (including drugs) and illegal migrants flow through it in both directions.
Rabat has recently somewhat soured relations with Paris, but retains close ties with the United States and with the Arabian monarchies. Algeria continues to be friends with Russia (especially on the basis of military-technical cooperation) and is in favorable relations with most European countries. China is pragmatically friendly with both sides, while fully recognizing Morocco's right to Western Sahara.
The two countries are constantly walking on the brink of war, but never crossing it. Can such a walk be endless, or will the countries still break down one day (most likely because of the same Western Sahara)?
If a breakdown occurs, then without external help, the fate of Morocco does not seem rosy. Algeria, firstly, is much larger in size, its territory has a significant operational depth. Morocco is small in area and stretches along the sea, its width is insignificant, especially in the southern part.
But the main thing, of course, is not in this, but in the very significant superiority of Algeria over Morocco in all classes of military equipment.
AN OBVIOUS ADVANTAGEMorocco's tank fleet is a unique combination of American Abrams, Soviet T-72 and Chinese Tour 96 (in the export version of the VT-4).
Their total number is not much more than that of Algeria – only the T-72. Approximately equally on the sides of older tanks (M60 in Morocco, T-54/55/62 in Algeria). But at the same time, Algeria still has 508 of the latest T-90, which Morocco is not able to compensate with anything. Moreover, Algeria is also ahead in terms of ATGM, both quantitatively and qualitatively.
The number of SA342 attack helicopters in Morocco and the Mi-24 in Algeria is about the same, but the Soviet machines are much more powerful. They are supplemented by three dozen of the latest Russian Mi-28N, against which Morocco already has nothing. "At the same time," the Algerian army has Russian MLRS "Smerch" and TOS-1A, as well as Chinese SR-5, which are very well suited for breaking through any defense.
The Moroccans have no analogues to the Su-24 front-line bombers and even more so to the Su-30MKA fighter-bombers, the total number of which in the Algerian Air Force is close to a hundred. 23 new Moroccan F-16s are fully compensated by three dozen Algerian MiG-29s. Outdated Moroccan F-5 and Mirage-F1 are unlikely to help against modern Algerian cars.
Moreover, Morocco is very bad with ground air defense. It has only a limited number of low–altitude facilities, the best of which are 12 ZRPC "Tunguska". Algeria has much more similar funds and they are generally better in quality (especially 38 ZRPC "Pantsir-C1"). But in addition to this, there are eight more divisions of the S-300P air defense system, at least one division of the Buk-M2 air defense system and over 20 divisions of older air defense systems (S-75, S-125, "Square"). At the same time, the capabilities of the Algerian aviation are complemented by the Iskander operational and tactical missile system, to which Morocco cannot oppose anything at all.
Algeria's air superiority further aggravates the situation on land for Morocco. In fact, the entire territory of Morocco is in the reach of Algerian planes and missiles. While Moroccan aviation is unlikely to be able to influence at least the westernmost regions of Algeria, not to mention the rest of its vast territory. That is, Algeria's rear will be able to work almost unhindered, while Morocco will not have a rear at all – the enemy will get everywhere.
The situation is similar at sea. The Moroccan Navy has three modern French-built frigates in its composition, but they do not have submarines, missile corvettes and boats, large amphibious ships. Algeria has all this, and it is very modern. Of course, with a long land border, the war at sea will not be the main one, but Algeria may well organize an amphibious assault on the Mediterranean coast of Morocco, on the right flank of its grouping advancing on Rabat.
It is pointless to wait for help from the Arabian monarchies of Morocco for reasons at least of a geographical nature. Madrid and Paris have ambiguous relations with Rabat, in addition, Spain and France are simply not ready for war against such an enemy as Algeria. Morocco's only hope is in the United States, but it is not at all obvious that Washington needs to participate in such a war.
Another thing is that Algeria does not need it now either. In practical terms, a victory over Morocco will not give him anything, besides there is no direct reason for war. And Morocco will try not to give such a reason, although it is categorically not ready to give up Western Sahara.
Most likely, the Algerian-Moroccan war will remain a latent possibility: it can start at any moment, but this moment never comes.
Alexander KhramchikhinAlexander Anatolyevich Khramchikhin is an independent military expert.
