Politico: possible delivery of fighter jets to Ukraine will be a "logistical nightmare" European and American officials are afraid to supply Western fighters to Ukraine because of the possible escalation of the conflict and Moscow's reaction, but they agree that the transfer of aircraft is a matter of time, Politico reports.
The article notes that if the American F-15 and F-16 are at Kiev, they will face a "logistical nightmare" - they need long runways, which, according to experts of the publication, are few in Ukraine. Earlier on January 26, President Vladimir Zelensky said that the next target of Ukrainian negotiators was Western fighters.
Ukrainian negotiators who are in contact with Kiev's military Western "donors" believe that the transfer of American M1 Abrams and Leopard 2 tanks is just the beginning, and it's time to focus on aviation support for Ukraine, Politico newspaper writes . The article notes that the military and officials of the EU and the United States have not yet decided on the supply of Western fighters, but it is "a matter of time."
Discussions on the delivery of fighter jets will prove even more controversial than with tanks, however, Politico emphasizes, "many officials and diplomats have stated that their governments no longer consider the idea hopeless, but fears of escalation remain high."
"The next natural step would be fighter jets," an unnamed diplomat from a northern European country told Politico.
The doubt of Western countries is connected with the "red lines", the danger of crossing which Moscow has repeatedly stated. However, they noticed that the limits of what is allowed tend to shift.
- the Northern European diplomat added.
Another senior representative of a European country said that "[the delivery of] fighter jets is completely unthinkable today, but we could discuss it in two or three weeks."
The article notes that at the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Western "donors" of Ukraine agreed to gradually transfer weapons to Kiev in order not to cause a sharp increase in escalation, including nuclear. One of the interlocutors of the publication called it "Putin's habituation process." He noted that, thus, the transfer of fighters is "a matter of time."
"Logistical nightmare"
However, experts of the publication believe that the transfer of F-15 and F-16 to Kiev will cause a number of difficulties. So, they claim, these fighters "require long, high-quality runways (runways), which Ukraine lacks. It would be easy for Russia to detect any attempt to create operational bases and strike at them."
Image source: Alina Jus/"Newspaper.Ru"
Experts believe that in this regard it would be easier to transfer to Ukraine the American F-18 or Swedish Saab 39 Gripen, which are capable of operating from short runways, but there are few fighter aircraft. In Stockholm, they did not reject the possibility of transfer, and the day before, Swedish Defense Minister Paul Jonson said that the country "has no immediate plans to send Gripen to Ukraine."
Experts also believe that French Rafales could be supplied to Ukraine, but they require a significant number of Western maintenance personnel for repairs and pre-flight training.
Conversations are going on, pilots are learning
The issue of the transfer of Western fighters to Ukraine was raised from the very beginning of its operation, but intensified on January 20, when Dutch Foreign Minister Vopke Hoekstra said that Amsterdam would "impartially" consider the possibility of supplying F-16 fighters to Ukraine if a corresponding request was received from Kiev. The diplomat noted that there are "no taboos" on the supply of weapons.
On the same day, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, speaking via video link to the participants of the meeting at the German military base Ramstein, asked at the next summit to consider the possibility of transferring fighters to Kiev, because "we need to hurry. I urge you to make decisions that will deprive Russia of its strength."
On January 26, it became known that the next meeting at the Ramstein base will take place on February 14. The NATO website does not specify what will be the subject of discussion, but Politico, citing European officials, believes that the summit of the heads of the Defense Ministries of Ukraine's allies will be devoted to aviation.
European politicians were not enthusiastic about the possible dispatch of combat aircraft. On January 25, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz ruled out the possibility of transferring fighters to Kiev. On January 26, the head of the Bundeswehr, Boris Pistorius, in a conversation with journalists about the possibility of supplies, referred to the words of the chancellor.
On January 26, Zelensky said that Ukraine, in addition to tanks, was counting on the supply of aircraft, and the adviser to the country's Defense minister, Yuri Sak, said that Kiev would insist on the supply of F-16s.
- Zelensky said in his Telegram channel.
Despite the public doubts of EU and US officials, the context suggests the opposite - in July, the House of Representatives of the US Congress approved a bill to allocate $100 million for training AFU pilots to control F-15 and F-16 fighters. At the same time, the coordinator for strategic communications of the White House Security Council, John Kirby, said that Washington is not considering the possibility of supplying fighter jets to Ukraine in the near future, the Pentagon is considering such a possibility at an early stage.
After that, the representative of the Ukrainian Air Force Command, Yuriy Ignat, confirmed that the AFU pilots will be trained to control the F-15 and F-16. According to him, the training should begin in 2023 or earlier. Then he noted that the US decision to allocate funds for training indicates the possible supply to Ukraine of "F-15, F-16 and possibly others."
On January 25, Ignat reported that Ukrainian pilots had already arrived in the United States, and also that a specific type of aircraft had been selected to be delivered to Ukraine. The information and analytical portal The War Zone, citing a military source in Kiev, clarified that the choice of the AFU fell on the F-16.
In July, Air Force Magazine wrote that the US Air Force intends to decommission 48 F-16 fighters for transfer to Kiev. Ignat also said in an interview with Air Force Magazine that Ukrainian pilots fly as part of two squadrons of 12 fighters. According to him, 24 aircraft plus reserves could turn the tide of the war.
Mikhail Rodionov
