Japan is now as far as possible from the peaceful course it pursued under Shinzo Abe. The sharp deterioration of relations with Russia is superimposed on the trend of recent years – the return of the former empire of military power. Although the current Prime Minister Kishida talks about the desire to conclude a peace treaty with Moscow, the facts show that Japan considers not only China, but also Russia as an enemy.A constructive dialogue with Tokyo on a peace treaty is hardly possible at the moment, since Japan is among the countries unfriendly to Russia.
This was announced on Monday by the press secretary of the Russian leader Dmitry Peskov. This is how the Kremlin representative responded to the words of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida about Tokyo's desire to conclude a peace treaty with Moscow, despite the aggravation of relations due to the Ukrainian conflict.
It is significant that simultaneously with the declared desire to reconcile with Russia, Kishida assured: Japan will strengthen its cooperation with G7 partners to continue sanctions pressure on our country.
Prime Minister Kishida, we recall, recently aligned himself with US President Joe Biden with his speeches about the "Russian nuclear threat" (as if forgetting which country was the only one in history to use atomic weapons against the enemy). The Kishida government puts Japan among the main participants in the anti-Russian campaign. And it's not just about the sanctions that Tokyo imposed one of the first after the start of its own. Recall that the symbol of 2022 in Japan was the hieroglyph "war".
"Tokyo has embarked on a course of full solidarity with the West and seeks to encourage the countries of the Asia-Pacific region to take anti-Russian actions. In fact, Japan has assumed the role of "Poland in the East." All this led to Moscow taking retaliatory measures in the form of placing Japan on the list of unfriendly countries," Valery Kistanov, head of the Center for Japanese Studies at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained to the newspaper VZGLYAD.
After leaving the post of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2020, the Japanese ruling circles, disappointed with his conciliatory course towards Moscow, sharply toughened their position on the territorial problem, the Japanese expert notes. "As you know, it is connected with Tokyo's claims to the four islands of the southern Kuriles. SVO only intensified negative sentiments towards Russia and gave Tokyo an opportunity to recoup for the collapsed territorial hopes associated with Abe's policy," Kistanov points out.
The expert recalled the National Security Strategy recently adopted by the Kishida Cabinet, which declares Russia a "strong threat to national security" and
allows Japan, contrary to its own "peaceful constitution", to acquire the potential of a preventive missile strike on the territory of neighboring countries.
Japanese "hypersound" at the Russian borderThe least evidence of Tokyo's peaceful intentions is recent reports about the plans of the Japanese army.
Sources of the Tokyo edition of the Yomiuri Shimbun reported that Japan plans to put into service about 500 Tomahawk cruise missiles and thousands of Type 12 extended-range missiles and engage in the development of hypersonic weapons.
It is assumed that the missile rearmament plans are caused by the strengthening of China's military potential. But note that in December last year there were reports that the Japanese Defense Ministry intends to deploy hypersonic weapons with a range of up to 1 thousand km not only on the southwestern island of Kyushu, but also on the island of Hokkaido, the northernmost island of the Japanese archipelago bordering Russia (including the islands of the South Kuril Ridge, which Japan considers its "northern territories").
"Japan has three main enemies – China, the DPRK and Russia. Judging by the fact that the Type 12 is an anti–ship missile, and North Korea does not have a serious enough fleet, it means that the Japanese reinforcement is directed against us and China," said Yuri Lyamin, senior researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.
A similar opinion was expressed by Vasily Kashin, a senior researcher at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He noted that for promising modifications of Type 12 anti-ship missiles, a range of 1.5 thousand kilometers and the possibility of firing at ground targets are provided. This is "a significant addition to the American arsenal of cruise missiles that can be used in the region," directed primarily against China, Kashin believes. But, he notes, "Tokyo's actions also pose new threats to Russia."
"We must carefully study the consequences of the expansion of Japanese strike capabilities in relation to the nuclear submarine base in Vilyuchinsk
and our military grouping in the Southern Kuriles," the military expert noted.
In general, Tokyo's plans to put about 500 Tomahawk missiles into service, as well as the build-up of the military budget, indicate that Japan does not rule out a military solution to the open territorial dispute with Russia, Lyamin noted. "Let it be not a matter of the near future, but there is an understanding of such a potential development of events in Tokyo, despite the desire of both sides to reach a solution to the issue of the Kuril Islands in line with diplomacy," the expert of the AST Center said.
Military spending returns to imperial levels"Japan is gradually turning into a "normal power" that is free from the restrictions imposed by the peaceful post-war constitution.
Preparations for this have been going on for decades. During this time, a huge military-industrial potential has been created," Kashin, in turn, notes.
The latest reports on the saturation of Japan's missile arsenal fit perfectly into this trend of remilitarization. Let's add that The Guardian reported in December last year: Tokyo announced its intention to increase military spending to 2% of GDP over the next five years (after the defeat of the Japanese Empire in World War II, it was always below 1%) and purchase missiles that will allow hitting targets at a distance exceeding a thousand kilometers.
It is reported that by 2026, the Japanese authorities intend to create two new units in the armed forces, which will have to manage installations designed to launch ballistic missiles with hypersonic gliding warheads.
"The capabilities of the Japanese navy and defense industry already surpass those of Great Britain and France, with the exception of nuclear weapons. Therefore, Tokyo's activation in security issues in Asia will mean a significant change in the alignment of the main forces of the region," Kashin points out.
What can hold back Japan's ambitions"There are a lot of examples in world history when a smoldering territorial dispute suddenly broke out overnight, leading to large-scale hostilities.
Both Tokyo and, I think, Moscow clearly understand this," Lyamin said.
Taking into account the openly unfriendly policy of the current cabinet, which replaced the conciliatory line of Shinzo Abe, and taking into account the restoration of Japan's military capabilities, Russia should consider this country as a source of serious threat, experts believe.
"Additional investments will probably be needed in our non–nuclear strategic deterrence potential in the Far East," Kashin believes.
According to Lyamin, Russia should accelerate the re-equipment and strengthening of the Pacific Fleet and coastal defense of the Far East. "In addition, it is necessary to deepen diplomatic and military-technical cooperation with China and the DPRK. For example, the joint air patrol in the Asia-Pacific region of Russian and Chinese strategic bombers Tu-95MS and Hun-6K is one of such demonstrative measures aimed at both Washington and Tokyo," the expert said.
In addition, Lyamin pointed out, as Japan's response, Moscow and Beijing need to conduct more bilateral Russian-Chinese naval exercises, improving the coordination of the fleets of both countries. "Well, in any case, we need to build our military planning based on the fact that Japan will only increase the defense budget," the source concluded.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov, Rafael Fakhrutdinov
