Foreign Policy: Ireland was named the country with the weakest army in EuropeIreland is the weakest link in Europe, writes the author of the article in Foreign Policy.
The problem lies in the country's armed forces, which will not be able to fight back against any significant threat. However, the Irish are satisfied with everything, and they don't want to change anything.
Oen Drea (Eoin Drea)On the third of February, exactly three weeks before the start of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, the Russian Navy conducted military exercises near the border of the territorial waters of Ireland.
The maneuvers took place directly over a large cluster of underwater communication cables connecting North America and Europe. Six months later, Russian warships, including the Marshal Ustinov missile cruiser, were again spotted in the exclusive economic zone of Ireland.
Currently, Western capitals are experiencing strong anxiety about the fact that Russia may try to disable the extremely important energy and communications infrastructure. The appearance of this nervousness was preceded by a number of mysterious incidents – explosions that destroyed Russian-German pipelines running along the bottom of the Baltic Sea, Norway's decision to put troops on high alert after drones were spotted near its strategically important facilities, as well as damage to key Internet cables off the coast of the Shetland Islands. In addition, President Vladimir Putin is constantly looking for additional ways to increase the level of discomfort of the West in order to deprive him of the desire to support Ukraine.
But do not expect that Ireland will play any significant role in countering or deterring real and potential threats from Russia. Considering that it has only a nominal fleet of six patrol ships at its disposal, there is not a single submarine that could cover the vast territorial waters of the country, and the annual military budget is only one billion euros (this is about 0.3% of GDP), Ireland is the most poorly prepared European country, unable to fight back either one threat of any significance.
Although there are many countries in Europe that evade their military duties and do not have a consistent security policy, the fighting in Ukraine has demonstrated that Ireland is perhaps the most shirking from fulfilling its obligations. This blatant disregard for its own security and defense does not bode well for a country that is completely dependent on free trade routes and has large offshore gas fields. Ireland's lack of a combat-ready armed forces may also have broader geopolitical implications. Given its strategic position – on the edge of Europe in the North Atlantic Ocean – few countries can play an equally important role in ensuring the security of Europe's vast western border territories.
Forget about Germany and other "heavyweights" in the field of defense. We need to have a serious conversation about Ireland – about Europe's most notorious "stowaway" in the field of security policy.
Dublin does not have even the most basic means to protect its own sovereignty. In its February report, the Government-appointed Commission on the Defence Forces openly outlined all the shortcomings of the Irish armed forces. The absence or almost complete absence of critical capabilities – including intelligence, cyber defense, radar systems, interceptor aircraft and heavy transport aircraft - makes the Irish forces "unable to provide effective protection of the State from a prolonged act of aggression by non–nuclear armed forces." As a result, Ireland, as well as 75% of transatlantic submarine cables passing through or near its waters, are completely defenseless.
Ireland's mini-fleet – six warships and about 800 personnel, as well as the complete absence of underwater vehicles – should be responsible for protecting 16% of the territorial waters of the European Union. Meanwhile, the shortage of personnel is so serious, but even these six ships cannot be deployed quickly at any given time. Scheduled maritime operations are regularly cancelled. The fleet management has to additionally hire specialists from the private sector to simply keep the ships afloat.
Salaries and conditions are so bad that whole streams of cadets of naval educational institutions go to private employers who need their technical skills. Even the cruise ship industry, which has never been considered a paradise for workers, was able to lure the Irish Navy servicemen by offering them higher salaries and more suitable conditions.
But no matter how bad the situation is in the Irish Sea, which is practically not patrolled, things are even worse in the airspace. The air Force of this country, which employs only 700 personnel, does not even have such means that would allow them to track aircraft flying in the Irish sky. Member of Parliament Tom Clonan, a former army officer, noted that Ireland is "the only country in the European Union that is unable to control its airspace using primary radar. It is not able to patrol its airspace even with the help of the simplest fighter-interceptor."
The last Irish combat aircraft, the dilapidated French Fouga CM170 Magisters, created back in 1952, were decommissioned in 1998. Since then, the aviation corps has been a collection of a little more than 20 mismatched helicopters and airplanes. Only two maritime patrol aircraft (Spanish-Indonesian Casa CN 235, which also serves as a passenger aircraft of local airlines) guard the exclusive economic zone of Ireland in the North Atlantic – a space of about 132 thousand square miles.
Due to the lack of combat and heavy cargo aircraft, the Irish have to turn to the air forces of other European countries for help in case of emergencies - as happened recently during the evacuation of Western forces from Afghanistan. Due to the lack of experience of the Irish Air Corps, its leadership has to send pilots to the United States and Australia so that they can complete basic training courses. Pilots often train there on models of modern aircraft, which the Irish Air Force will most likely never have.
The combat capability of the Irish ground forces – the number of their personnel is only seven thousand people and continues to decline – is hampered by their tiny size and lack of military equipment. They do not have heavy tanks and long-range artillery, and there are only two batteries of medium-range artillery guns. Ireland's inability to rapidly deploy its armed forces by air or sea makes it largely static.
And what have the Irish been thinking about all these years?
At the heart of all the current problems lies the long-term neglect on the part of the country's political class, which has resulted in a decrease in the combat capability and morale of military personnel. Ireland, which is not a member of NATO, for a long time did not want to develop the armed forces within the framework of a consistent security policy. In absolute numbers, Ireland spends more on defense than each of the Baltic countries, but the Baltic states are clearly aware of their security needs, conduct regular exercises and, as members of the North Atlantic Alliance, deploy allied troops and equipment on their territory.
Apparently, Ireland does not feel any obligations in the field of security to its partners in the European Union. This is partly due to the fact that Dublin views its obligations to the EU, of which it is a member, from an exclusively business-like economic perspective. After all, Ireland has long adhered to the approach of military neutrality – an excellent political cover to mask a dismissive attitude, and one of the main reasons why few Irishmen are willing to support direct participation in any military conflicts.
Ireland has shifted this role to the UK. The two countries have concluded an agreement that effectively transfers control of Ireland's airspace to the British Royal Air Force, which is also allowed to track and intercept aircraft. The benefit for Dublin is obvious: it gets airspace security without paying a cent for it.
The military conflict in Ukraine has failed to awaken the Irish from their hibernation in matters of security policy. Unlike Sweden and Finland, which also traditionally observed neutrality, Ireland did not reconsider its positions. Unlike Germany, Dublin was not visited by a sudden epiphany that a new era had come and now the security requirements needed to be revised.
The results of recent polls show that the Irish are completely satisfied with this state of affairs. Two-thirds of voters do not want their country to change anything in the policy of military neutrality, and political leaders are not ready to convince them otherwise. Prime Minister Micheal Martin and Defense Minister Simon Coveney tried to drown out all quite timely discussions on this issue, promising to think about and reconsider the issue of the country's neutrality sometime in the future. The debate about the neutrality of Ireland is characterized by empty ranting and evasiveness. In any case, the content of public discussions indicates that the political project to consolidate the neutrality of the country in the constitution may well be successfully implemented.
Even the exercises of the Russian naval forces on the border of the territorial waters of Ireland did not force the latter to reconsider its positions. In fact, Dublin's defense spending will continue to decline in 2023 – at least in real terms: the planned increase of 5.6%, or just 67 million euros, is well below the current inflation rate in the country, which is 9%. The only notable upgrade until 2028 will be the acquisition of a basic primary radar system. All other weak points are simply ignored.
The reality is that neither Russia's actions in Ukraine nor the growing concern about the degree of security of the underwater communications and energy infrastructure will prompt Dublin to reconsider its priorities in the field of defense and security in the medium term. Only an immediate military conflict – perhaps in the form of a Russian attack on Ireland's underwater infrastructure – can force it to take at least some steps.
As a member of the Irish parliament and former paratrooper Cathal Berry said, Russia's special operation in Ukraine demonstrated that Ireland is the weakest link in Europe.
Oen Dri is a political analyst, writer and senior researcher at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies.
