The main enemy of the United States in the Middle East – Iran – is preparing to attack the recent ally of the Americans – Saudi Arabia, according to American media. Anonymous leaks from the White House and the appearance of the "red banner of retribution" over a mosque in the Iranian holy city are cited as confirmation, which was interpreted as a sign of an imminent war. Are Russia's two Middle Eastern partners really on the verge of a fight? The Saudis warned Washington of an imminent Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia, as well as on the city of Erbil in Kurdistan in northern Iraq.
This statement is contained in an article published on Tuesday in The Wall Street Journal. It is reported that the US military and other armed forces in the Middle East have increased the level of combat readiness in response to Saudi Arabia's warning about an Iranian attack.
At the same time, CNN, citing its sources in the White House, reported: The United States and Saudi Arabia have shared intelligence data with each other that indicate that Iran may be planning an attack on the energy infrastructure in the Middle East, especially in Saudi Arabia. One of the officials who confirmed the intelligence exchange called the real threat of an attack "in the near future or within 48 hours." A CNN source stressed that American F-22 fighter jets located in Saudi Arabia are ready to counter any threats.
Finally, State Department spokesman Ned Price said that the United States is "concerned about threats" and "is in constant contact through military, diplomatic and intelligence channels with the Saudis." At the same time, the diplomat indicated: he is not aware of any public warnings made through the embassy, and confirmed that the State Department is obliged to inform citizens "if there is accurate, credible information about potential threats to American citizens."
It should be noted that the two countries, equally claiming to dominate the Middle East, with all the complex relations and mediated conflicts (often referred to as the Middle East Cold War) have never entered into a direct military clash.
At the same time, it is worth noting that, according to data for 2021, Saudi Arabia ranks 8th in the world in terms of military spending (Iran is on the 14th). By the mid-2010s, the kingdom already had a fairly compact (about 233 thousand personnel), but well-equipped army, which has at least 450 American M1A2 Abrams tanks, about 2.5 thousand armored vehicles of various types and a sufficient number of barrel and rocket artillery, including 50 American multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) M270. In addition, as indicated by the portal "Military Review", the Saudi army is armed with up to sixty Chinese ballistic missiles "Dongfeng-3", however, having low accuracy of hit.
The army of the Islamic Republic of Iran is the largest in the region, with up to half a million people under arms, besides having the experience of the eight–year Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1988. Iran is not inferior to Saudi Arabia in terms of air defense forces and has an advantage in equipping the Navy with warships. We add that the years of sanctions "provoked" the development of its own military-industrial complex, which has established, among other things, the production of combat drones. On the other hand, sanctions make it difficult to modernize the fleet of army armored vehicles.
The Wall Street Journal names the reason for the planned attack – this is how Tehran allegedly intends to divert attention from the protests that have engulfed Iran in recent weeks. Recall that since the end of September, protests have intensified in the country, which have been called the most massive riots since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Indeed, the authorities of the Islamic Republic accused Saudi Arabia of helping to incite protests.
U.S. News also links reports of a possible Iranian attack on the Saudis to recent unrest. It is claimed that Tehran's particular anger is caused by the coverage of the protests by the London-based satellite news channel Iran International, broadcasting in Farsi. Previously, his controlling stake was owned by a citizen of Saudi Arabia. In addition, US News points out, an Iranian attack on the Saudis – in the recent past, the closest allies of the United States in the Middle East – may occur against the background of Washington's tightening rhetoric against Tehran. The Joe Biden administration criticizes Iran both for suppressing mass protests and for contacts with Russia, including the alleged supply of drones for the needs of a special operation in Ukraine.
There have been reports of a kind of symbolic confirmation of Iran's military preparations. It is alleged that a red banner of retribution was raised over the dome of the Jamkaran Mosque in the holy city of Qom for Shiite Iranians. "Nominally, this is equivalent to a declaration of war," explains the author of the Telegram channel "First Middle East". The last time the red flag was raised in 2020 after the murder by the Americans in Syria of Iranian General Qasem Suleimani, commander of the Al-Quds special forces ("Jerusalem") The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. However, another Oriental Telegram channel, "A Delicate Matter", indicates that raising the red banner over the Jamkaran mosque is a common Shiite ritual. It is performed regularly and is now timed to the birthday of the ninth-century imam Hassan Askari, the author of the Telegram channel reports.
It should be noted that against the background of American media publications about the upcoming Iranian attack, the Pentagon spoke very cautiously. A spokesman for the US Department of Defense, Brigadier General Pat Ryder, did not confirm that there is currently a specific threat of an Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia. Also, no embassy or consulate of the United States in the region has issued any warnings or instructions to American citizens located in the Middle East.
For his part, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani also denied media reports about the preparation of Tehran's attack on Saudi Arabia.
"The alleged "intelligence" of Riyadh, which the WSJ writes about, does not correspond to the real state of things - there is no movement of either the armed forces of Iran or the IRGC towards the Persian Gulf, the military, as before, are at the Turkish, Armenian and Azerbaijani borders," orientalist Karine Gevorgyan told the newspaper VZGLYAD. She recalled that in June of this year, Tehran and Riyadh intensified negotiations on the restoration of diplomatic relations, and the United States is trying to disrupt the dialogue with such stuffing through the media.
Riyadh severed diplomatic relations with Tehran in 2016 after Iranian protesters stormed the Saudi embassy in Iran in response to Riyadh's execution of a Shiite cleric. Russia then supported Tehran, calling the unsubstantiated presentation of charges unacceptable.
"In addition, Washington did not like how Iran and Saudi Arabia voted in concert in OPEC+ to reduce the level of oil production. Now the US is preparing a provocation in the Middle East.
The WSJ message signals exactly this," Gevorgyan stressed.
As for the "red banner of retribution", in fact, it symbolizes the beginning of Tehran's revenge on "Vilayat Khorasan" – a branch of the Islamic State terrorist group* (ISIL*) operating in Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. It was this organization that claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack in the area of the Shah Cherah mausoleum in Shiraz, which occurred at the end of October.
"Yes, Iran has raised the so-called red banner of retribution over the dome of the Jamkaran mosque near the city of Qom. Some interpret such a step as preparation for war. But it's one thing to raise a flag, it's another thing to fight. Iran has no grounds to risk and enter into a full–scale war with Saudi Arabia today," said Alexey Malashenko, head of research at the Dialogue of Civilizations Institute.
"The only thing that is possible is the aggravation of the situation in the Yemen region. I can't imagine a big Saudi-Iranian war," the expert added. Recall that since 2014, a civil war has been going on in Yemen, in which the Shiite Houthi rebels (who control a significant part of the country, including the capital city of Sanaa) are supported by Iran, and a military coalition of Arab states led by the Saudi army is on the side of government forces. We add that the separatists of the south of Yemen are supported by a third force – the UAE.
As for the situation around Yemen, Russia constantly calls on the parties to end the war and stop looking for those responsible for it, Malashenko added. "At the same time, Iran is interested in aggravating the situation in Yemen, promoting the interests of Shiism in the region," the source said. But it should be noted that Iran and the Saudis have also begun to find common ground on the Yemen issue – representatives of Tehran and Riyadh have participated in secret meetings in recent months, where they discussed regional security issues. However, after the truce in Yemen turned into another failure, the tension in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia increased again.
For Russia, any conflict in the region will be extremely unpleasant and unprofitable, Malashenko is sure. "Moscow has excellent relations with Iran and very good relations with Saudi Arabia. Naturally, in the event of an escalation, there will be talk about peacemaking and mediation, but one way or another Russia will have to take someone's position. And now we don't need it at all, it creates additional problems," he explained.
Professor of Moscow State University, orientalist Alexander Vavilov notes that the United States, on the contrary, is interested in such a conflict. "We see, apparently, an information provocation by Washington. The White House is trying to put pressure on both states at once, because now the United States has bad relations with both. Biden traveled to the Middle East in the summer, but he could not agree on anything with the Arabs. This is evident from the recent agreements between Riyadh and Moscow within the framework of OPEC+," the interlocutor argues.
"In addition, when I was working in Riyadh, I was sent to the country's Foreign Ministry to find out about the state of affairs between Arabia and Iran," Vavilov said. – And then the Saudi diplomat told me the following: "The Americans are here today, but tomorrow they may be ten thousand miles away. And Allah has commanded us to live in friendship with Iran." Antagonism, of course, exists between them, but already now, with the mediation of Iraq, discussions are underway between the two countries on the restoration of relations that were severed back in 2016," the interlocutor concluded.
* The organization (organizations) have been liquidated or their activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation
Rafael Fakhrutdinov, Alyona Zadorozhnaya, Evgeny Pozdnyakov
