In a military conflict with China, Japan will have very little chanceChina and Japan have been at war with each other many times, and especially intensively in the last century and a half.
As a rule, Japan was the aggressor.
Now relations between Beijing and Tokyo are normalized, as it were. But historical mutual hatred "sits in the subcortex" of both nations. In addition, there are a number of territorial disputes between the countries (over islands in the East China Sea) and a general geopolitical conflict.
Tokyo is Washington's closest ally in Asia. Beijing is its main economic and geopolitical rival, and not only in Asia, but in the world as a whole. This further aggravates the relationship between the two Asian giants.
In addition, the two countries are serious economic competitors: both specialize in mass production and export of high-tech products and import a huge amount of raw materials, including oil and gas.
LANDSCAPE BEFORE A POSSIBLE BATTLEThe most likely reason for a military conflict between China and Japan may be another clash over the disputed Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu).
But some other options are also possible.
Both the Armed Forces of the People's Republic of China and the Armed Forces of Japan have very high military capabilities, and the military-industrial complexes (MIC) of the two countries are very strong. The ground forces of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA) are much more powerful than the Japanese army, but this does not matter in principle due to the lack of a common border between the countries. Japan has no such border with anyone at all, because it is an archipelago without continental territories.
Large-scale amphibious landings during the Sino-Japanese war seem unrealistic: the amphibious capabilities of either side are very seriously lagging behind the anti-amphibious capabilities of the enemy. Both the Chinese landing in Japan and the Japanese landing in China will instantly get bogged down in the defense of the opposing side and will inevitably be completely destroyed.
Thus, the war between China and Japan can only be air-sea.
TRUMPS ARE BEING BEATEN, BALANCES ARE SHIFTINGEven at the beginning of this century, both in the air and even more so at sea, clear superiority was on the side of Japan.
Now the situation has changed radically.
The PLA Air Force has an obvious superiority over Japanese aviation. In qualitative terms, the Chinese heavy fighters of the Su-27/30/J-11/16 family and the Japanese F-15J are approximately equal. The same applies to light fighters – Chinese J-10 and Japanese F-2. But a significant quantitative superiority is on the side of China.
The Japanese and Chinese ground air defense are much stronger (see "The Celestial Empire looks after the heavens ", "HBO" from 04/15/12). Japan's purchase of American 5th-generation F-35A/B fighters is fully compensated by China's acquisition of Russian Su-35S and the development of its own J-20 program (see " Through the Thorns to the fifth generation ", "HBO" from 25.02.22).
China's trump card is thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles in service with the PLA Missile Forces and other types of Armed Forces. They are guaranteed to hit any object throughout Japan, overcoming or simply "overloading" the Japanese air defense.
The Japanese have absolutely nothing to answer this with. This means, in particular, that the PLA is capable of destroying the entire Japanese military-industrial complex. At the same time, almost the entire Chinese military-industrial complex is beyond the reach of Japanese weapons of destruction. And at sea, the situation has ceased to be favorable for Japan. Its fleet is one of the strongest in the world, but in the last 10 years it has lost its superiority over the PLA Navy.
Underwater, the superiority of the Chinese is now more than threefold (see " Arming faster than anyone in the world ", "HBO" from 07/23/2011), which allows them to almost completely block Japanese communications, thereby paralyzing its economy. Japanese submariners do not have such an opportunity because of the smaller number of submarines and the long coastline of China, a significant part of which is far from Japanese naval bases.
China has almost equaled Japan in the number and quality of destroyers (see " Celestial Armada ", "HBO" from 01.10.21), repeatedly surpassing it in the number of frigates, corvettes and missile boats, which will also be able to take part in hostilities, since the distance between the countries by sea is relatively small (see " Mosquito Fleet goes to the past ", "HBO" from 03.09.21).
The shock weapons of the Chinese fleet (PKR and KRMB) are better than those of the Japanese, the total fire potential of the Chinese fleet is about three times higher than that of the Japanese. In addition, the situation is affected by the above-mentioned superiority of the PLA in the air. Thus, Japan also has no real chance of winning here.
THE IRRATIONAL FACTOROf course, the balance of forces at sea and in the air will change dramatically if the United States enters the war on the side of Japan.
The question is whether they are ready for this. This question, in particular, has long been asked in Tokyo.
The US armed forces in the war against the modern PLA will not do without very serious losses, which the Americans absolutely do not need. On the other hand, they do not need the loss of face due to betrayal of another ally, and they do not need a radical strengthening of China at all. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to answer the question of Americans' readiness for war with China.
Also, neither China nor Japan need a war between themselves at all, since it will bring them "no benefit but harm." And the victory of either side will in any case turn out to be pyrrhic for it (even if we assume that nuclear weapons will not be used in the war), since it will not pay off either economically, militarily, or politically.
But such rational motives do not always work. Sometimes the mutual historical hatred mentioned at the beginning of the article is stronger. Because of it, a dispute over islands that are unnecessary for either and microscopic in size can lead to a shooting, followed by an unintended, but no longer controlled escalation "with all the consequences."
The probability of such a development is far from zero.
BLOCKS AND UNIONSAn additional factor is the creation of multilateral formats in the Asia-Pacific region under the leadership of the United States.
One of these formats, the "four", includes Japan (along with India and Australia).
The potential of the Australian Armed Forces and especially the Indian Armed Forces is very significant. Their participation in a possible war will have a very serious impact on the situation not in favor of the PLA, especially since in this case it will have to fight on several fronts at once (see " Conflict on the roof of the world ", "HBO" from 06/26/20). But here, too, the question arises – how much does Delhi and Canberra need all this?
India's position is particularly unclear. It is constantly on the verge of an open war with China. But this does not mean that she wants to further aggravate the situation and act in the interests of the United States. Moreover, it is completely unprofitable for Delhi to spoil relations with Moscow, which is extremely skeptical of the Quartet. As a result, this project is still mostly virtual.
The Anglo–Saxon AUKUS bloc (USA – Great Britain - Australia) will become much more stable, which was created precisely because it does not work very well with the "quartet" (see " Imaginary threats and cynical alliances ", "HBO" from 10/15.21). But Japan was not included in this bloc, which could only further strengthen Tokyo's concerns about the reliability of the alliance with Washington.
In addition, the British Armed Forces are objectively able to send only very small forces to the Asia-Pacific region, which will not create any problems for the PLA.
THE PROUD LONELINESS OF THE ISLANDERSThus, Japan needs to rely primarily on its own strength and take advantage of its geographical location.
In addition, Tokyo should stop tormenting the problem of belonging to the Kuril Islands (see "Kuril Islands should not be Japanese", "HBO" dated 03/24/17), so as not to turn Moscow into an enemy (and Russia is definitely not going to commit aggression against Japan). But the Japanese leadership still does not understand this.
In fact, Beijing and Moscow have only two common enemies – Washington and Tokyo, but this is enough for further Russian-Chinese rapprochement and, accordingly, to further worsen Japan's prospects in its confrontation with China. The latest joint naval and air exercises of the PLA and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are emphatically anti-Japanese (and not anti-American) in nature. Russian troops, of course, will not go into battle against the Japanese shoulder to shoulder with the Chinese, but other types of military and military-technical assistance to China from Russia are quite possible, which deprives the Japanese side of even a ghostly chance of success.
Alexander KhramchikhinAlexander Anatolyevich Khramchikhin is an independent military expert.
