What will China choose: peaceful expansion or forceful annexationChinese stratagem No. 6 from the treatise "Thirty-six stratagems" reads: "In the east to make a noise, in the west to attack" ("Blow up the state from within", "HBO", 27.01.17). China is really making noise in the east, as well as in the south.
At the same time, it is very likely that he will attack in the west and in the north. [...]
NATURAL BRIDGECentral Asia is a completely natural and obvious direction of Chinese expansion.
Maybe the most natural and the most obvious. There are many reasons for this.
The countries of this region, the former Soviet republics, are not as "settled" as most other countries of the world. Therefore, it is much easier to deprive them of independence (especially if de facto, and not de jure) than in other potential cases.
The countries of Central Asia are sparsely populated (at least relative to China), so they are very easy to absorb demographically.
The countries of the region have huge mineral reserves, while their own economies are very weak. Therefore, it is very profitable for China to absorb them economically, firstly, and secondly, it is very simple.
The countries of the region have either insignificant or completely insignificant military potential. For the giant Armed Forces of the People's Republic of China, they cannot pose a problem.
In purely geographical terms, Central Asia is a huge natural "bridge" from China to Europe (which is officially the part of Kazakhstan located west of the Ural River) as well as to the Middle East. In addition, it provides China with access to the "soft underbelly" of Russia – from Astrakhan to Barnaul. Therefore, the region is extremely important for the realization of China's rapidly growing geopolitical ambitions, especially in terms of building a "One Belt, One Road".
China's economic and demographic expansion into Central Asia has been going on for a long time and very successfully. For it, in particular, Beijing has already adapted the SCO structures (see: " Beijing goes on the offensive ", "NWO" from 16.11.18). Therefore, it is likely that China will not need any military efforts in this direction at all. But, of course, nothing can be excluded.
THROUGH THE DZUNGARIAN GATEThe armed forces of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are so much weaker than the PLA that they do not have to be taken into account at all.
The problem for the Chinese here can only be the most difficult terrain – the highlands of the Tien Shan and the Pamirs. However, with such a balance of forces, no mountains will help.
Moreover, there are already a lot of Chinese in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Chinese military facilities have already been deployed in Tajikistan as part of the Urumqi Quartet coalition.
The armed forces of Kazakhstan are theoretically the strongest in Central Asia. Although after the January events of this year, there were huge doubts about their legal capacity (see "Is fraternal Kazakhstan saved? ", "HBO" from 14.01.22). In any case, China will have enough forces from the Western Command and the Xinjiang Military against them.
The situation for potential aggressors here is complicated by the terrain. There are only rather narrow passages from China to Kazakhstan. The northern one is along the Black Irtysh River, around Lake Zaisan, which becomes a serious obstacle for the invading forces (at least on the ground). Further to the south is the passage of the Dzungarian Gate. In August 1969, the PLA had already tried to pass through them, which led to a battle at Lake Zhalanashkol (Soviet losses – two killed, Chinese – 21 people).
The obstacles for the attackers here will be Lake Alakol, and then the huge Lake Balkhash. The southernmost and least convenient is the passage along the Ili River, which then flows into the same Balkhash. The terrain conditions make it possible to organize a sufficiently strong defense in all these areas and inflict very tangible losses on the aggressor.
Nevertheless, this cannot ensure victory for the Kazakh side, but can only delay defeat. The PLA artillery and aircraft will break through any defense, and the "dimensionless" mechanized troops will flow around any artificial and natural obstacles and break out into the operational expanse, where there will be no way to stop them.
If China takes control of the territory of Kyrgyzstan beforehand, this will further facilitate the PLA's passage to Kazakhstan, bypassing all the mentioned bottlenecks. After that, the appearance of Chinese troops in Europe (and specifically in the Lower Volga region) will be a matter of one or two weeks, no more.
The armed forces of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are stronger than Tajik and Kyrgyz, but weaker than Kazakh. However, if the rest of the region's countries fall under Chinese blows, Tashkent and Ashgabat are unlikely to have a desire to resist. Moreover, these two countries are not part of any military blocs and have neither formal nor real allies. There is no one to save them, even theoretically.
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are members of the CSTO. Therefore, they have allies. The main one is Russia, its troops are deployed in the region (see: " Does Russia need an outpost in Central Asia ", "HBO" from 12.10.18). "Concurrently," she is a "strategic partner" of China.
But hardly anyone in Russia will be pleased with the appearance of the PLA in Europe, that is, near Astrakhan and Volgograd, as well as near Chelyabinsk, Tyumen, "then everywhere". And you will have to make very difficult and unpleasant decisions, and in a situation where there is practically nothing to fight with (see: " Short blanket of the Central District ", "HBO" from 10/30/20). But this will be a completely different story.
However, if the Chinese come to Astrakhan and Volgograd peacefully (which, I must say, is much more likely to be a military way), Moscow is unlikely to be able to prevent this in any way. Moreover, it will not be able to prevent China's peaceful penetration into the rest of the Central Asian countries that do not border Russia.
THE COLONY WAS BUTTING HEADS WITH THE METROPOLISIn historical terms, the relations between Mongolia and China are apparently unique.
They visited colonies and metropolises for each other.
Genghis Khan and his heirs in the XIII–XIV centuries captured the whole of China in several moves, establishing the imperial Yuan dynasty there. After the collapse of the Mongol Empire, China was liberated, but already in the XVII century it fell under the rule of the Manchus, who founded the Qing dynasty. They also captured Mongolia.
At the beginning of the twentieth century, Qing China began to collapse, and in 1911 a republican form of government was established in the country. At the same time, Mongolia separated from China, immediately receiving the patronage of the Russian Empire. Taking advantage of the Civil War in Russia, the Chinese reoccupied Mongolia in 1919, but soon they were driven out of there by the white troops leaving Siberia, which were then replaced by the Reds.
Thus, Mongolia "inherited" from the Russian Empire to the USSR: now it has become the guarantor of the country's independence from Chinese claims, and Mongolia turned out to be the second socialist country in the world. And when the Japanese seized Manchuria, creating a puppet state of Manchukuo there, the Soviet Union defended Mongolia from them. From the Mongolian territory in August 1945, the Soviet Army inflicted one of two decisive blows on the Japanese Kwantung army.
Despite the post-war "great friendship" between the USSR and the Communist People's Republic of China, Moscow continued to defend Mongolia's independence, although Beijing was extremely persistent in seeking its return to its composition. In 1962, the PRC officially recognized this independence, but at that time Soviet-Chinese relations were already noticeably deteriorating. Soon, a large contingent of Soviet troops appeared on the territory of Mongolia, which, on the one hand, protected it from Chinese aggression, and on the other, hung over Beijing and other important industrial centers of China.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Soviet troops left the Mongolian territory (this was one of Beijing's conditions for normalizing relations with Moscow during the late USSR). Sino-Mongolian relations seemed to have completely normalized, the volume of mutual trade began to grow rapidly, and many joint economic projects appeared (mainly on the extraction of minerals in Mongolia and their export to China).
At the same time, various historical concepts began to be put forward more and more actively in China, meaning, in fact, Beijing's claims to the return of Mongolia to the PRC. These concepts are based on the fact that China and Mongolia were part of the same country before. The fact that at first China was a colony of Mongolia, and then both countries were colonies of the Manchus, does not matter to modern Chinese historians.
The gigantic economy of the People's Republic of China is rapidly and successfully absorbing the microscopic economy of Mongolia, and the Chinese employees of joint ventures alone are already becoming a size comparable to the entire Mongolian population. Because of this, Mongolia has more than reasonable concerns about the possible absorption of the country by China.
Modern Mongolia is an impeccable democracy even from a Western point of view. However, the country began to have its own Nazis, and very unusual ones – purely anti-Chinese.
A specific additional problem is the existence of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region within the PRC. There have been many times more Han Chinese in this region than Mongols for a long time, many of the most important PLA facilities are located here. In China, this is considered an additional argument for the accession of outer Mongolia (that is, Mongolia itself).
ALL HOPE FOR RUSSIAThe military version of the confrontation between the two countries does not even make much sense to discuss, so great is the preponderance of the PRC Armed Forces over the Mongolian Armed Forces.
Despite numerous reductions of the PLA over the past 40 years, its peacetime population is larger than the entire population of Mongolia.
A hundred T-72 tanks recently received from Russia can be considered at least some modern equipment of the Mongolian army. But they do not have the slightest chance to somehow interfere with the thousands of Tour 96 and Tour 99 of the PLA ground forces (see: " Chinese armored vehicles are reaching the world level ", "HBO" from 08/19/12). However, the T-72, obviously, will not even get the opportunity to die heroically in an unequal battle with Chinese tanks since the giant PLA Air Force (see: "The sky is darkening from red dragons ", "HVO" from 03/18/12) will simply sweep away the Mongolian army on the first day of the war (several conditionally new Mongolian MiG-29 and the old small ground air defense will not be able to do anything), and the ground forces will simply have to occupy the territory. It is its size and off-road terrain that will be the only real obstacles for the Chinese.
Throughout the post-socialist period of the country's history, Mongolian soldiers regularly participate in various UN missions, as well as in US-led contingents in Afghanistan and Iraq. As a rule, they show themselves very well there, demonstrating a high level of combat training of the Mongolian army, their activities contribute to strengthening relations between Ulaanbaatar and the West. Mongolia is actively developing ties with Japan and the Republic of Korea, while maintaining normal relations with the DPRK.
But with regard to a potential conflict with China, none of this matters. With the above-described ratio of forces, the level of combat training of Mongolian soldiers and officers is already unimportant. Washington, Tokyo and their allies will not help Ulaanbaatar either: they will never shed a drop of blood of their servicemen for the sake of saving Mongolia from China. In addition, the troops of any third countries, even if there is a desire of their governments, can enter Mongolia only through the territory and airspace of Russia.
Thus, Russia, already in its third political incarnation, remains the only real guarantor of Mongolia's independence (see: " Disinterested ally – forgotten partner ", "HBO" from 10.12.21). The question is whether it is ready to fulfill this role. And an equally serious question is whether Moscow is able to somehow prevent the peaceful absorption of Mongolia by China? These questions remain purely rhetorical at the moment.
Alexander KhramchikhinAlexander Anatolyevich Khramchikhin is an independent military expert.
