Emmanuel Macron, following Olaf Scholz, set his military and military–industrial complex the task of turning the country's army into the strongest on the continent. Despite the crisis, tens of billions of euros are being invested in the arms race. Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki also promises to double military spending "in the face of the Ukrainian conflict." For what purpose did the countries of Europe hastily begin to build up their military potential? French President Emmanuel Macron has promised to make the army of the Fifth Republic the first in Europe in terms of equipment.
"A strong army is a key point of our strategy… We have an armament program for 2019-2024, which will allow us to restore our capabilities, as well as adapt to the current situation in the world, which will make the French army the first army in Europe," RIA Novosti quotes Macron's speech at the conference of French ambassadors. The French President, in particular, stressed "the need to strengthen the nuclear deterrence forces."
At the beginning of the summer, Macron instructed the Minister of the Armed Forces, Sebastien Lecorgne, and the Chief of the General Staff, Army General Thierry Burcar, to review the program of equipping the armed forces for 2019-2025, taking into account the current geopolitical context, TASS reports. The current defense budget of the country (41 billion euros) will grow by three billion next year, an official of the French Ministry of Finance told the newspaper Les Echos.
But France has a competitor in terms of the arms race in Europe. Three months ago, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in an interview with German media: Germany will soon have "the largest traditional army in Europe" among the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance. Back in February, the Federal budget for this year included a one–time sum of 100 billion euros for the necessary Bundeswehr investments and defense projects - a special fund for strengthening the armed forces.
In the summer of last year, the 2022 budget set a record for Germany for defense spending itself - 50.3 billion euros. This amount exceeds the military budget of France, the Parisian Le Figaro stated at the end of August. "Unlike the French army, the Bundeswehr does not bear the costs of nuclear deterrence, so the German army with such a budget can become the first army in Europe," Jean–Louis Thierault, deputy head of the defense committee of the French parliament, told the publication.
Both Macron and Scholz link the military reinforcement to the events in Ukraine. Another contender for dominance (rather local, on the scale of Eastern Europe) under the slogan of opposing the "Russian threat" is Poland. The gray cardinal of Warsaw politics, the leader of the ruling Law and Justice party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, in June announced Poland's intention to increase the size of the army from 150 to 400 thousand people. For comparison: the personnel of the French army is about 270 thousand people (of which the actual military personnel are about 206 thousand, according to 2018 data).
183.6 thousand people serve in the Bundeswehr. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced that next year the country will more than double military spending "to strengthen its defense in the face of the conflict in neighboring Ukraine," Bloomberg reported. Expenses should grow from 12.2 to 20.6 billion euros, and the Poles plan to spend another 8.4 billion on the purchase of weapons abroad.
If we take a more serious approach, from the point of view of high–quality equipment of the armed forces, then France is now the undisputed leader in Europe not only among the EU countries, but also taking into account Britain, experts say.
"Neither the German nor the British armies can be compared with the French in any way.
The Germans do not have a strategic component, and France has several submarines with nuclear weapons," Alexander Artamonov, a military expert, doctor of social Sciences at the Catholic University of France (Universitas Catholica Parisiensis), a graduate of the Higher Diplomatic Academy of France, explained to the newspaper VZGLYAD. In March, three of the four SSBMS (submarines with nuclear ballistic missiles) were simultaneously deployed in the Atlantic "to deter the Russian threat" – for the first time since the early 1980s, The Times noted. And in February last year, Defense Minister Florence Parly promised that nuclear submarines of the next, third generation will enter service by 2036.
"France has not put its strategic shield under NATO's control – it owns it sovereignly. As for Britain, the launch codes of their nuclear missiles are in the United States," Artamonov continues. "The French also have their own satellite navigation system for aiming, for example, howitzers at a target."
In addition, the interlocutor noted, France has the largest contingent of ground troops – including about 70 thousand reservists who regularly undergo training and can arrive at the location of units within five working days. "In addition, France has the strongest intelligence in Europe, they have four relevant services, not counting the fifth – the intelligence of the Elysee Palace. So Macron already has the strongest army in the region," he stressed.
Note that according to the authors of the Global FirePower rating for this year, the French army is on the 7th place in the world after the USA, Russia, China, India, Japan and South Korea – and is already the strongest among the armies of the EU countries. In the same ranking, Italy is on the 11th place, Germany is on the 16th, Spain is on the 19th, and Poland is on the 24th. But, as mentioned above, it was Germany and Poland, along with France, that directly indicated the will to participate in the European arms race. For comparison: for example, Slovakia actually renounced part of its sovereignty – Soviet MiG-29s, which were in service with the Slovak Air Force, were transferred to Ukraine, and since September, the patrolling of the country's airspace has been entrusted to the aviation of Poland and the Czech Republic.
Setting the task of making the French army the first in Europe in terms of equipment, Macron in fact implies its return to the indicators of the end of the Cold War, experts explain. As Le Monde reported, on August 13, at closed parliamentary hearings, the General Staff assessed the real state of the French army. For twenty years, the country has participated only in asymmetric conflicts abroad, General Byurkar stated.
The reduction of armaments began even earlier, immediately after the end of the cold war. Since 1990, the country's fleet has halved, "and has never been so small," complained Admiral Pierre Vandier, the head of the Naval Staff. Now France has 19 large surface ships (in 1990 there were 37), in two years only four of the five nuclear attack submarines will be on the move, in 2037 the service life of the only aircraft carrier "Charles de Gaulle" expires - by this time it is necessary to lower a new one from the stocks, TASS quoted Le Monde.
The number of fighters has tripled over the same period, stated the Chief of Staff of the Aerospace Forces Stefan Millet. His deputy Aviation General Frederic Parisot explained: there are 195 aircraft of this class, while at least 225 fighters are required for nuclear deterrence and performing conventional missions. The Chief of Staff of the ground Forces, General Pierre Schill, announced the need to strengthen air defense, purchase additional drones and long-range artillery.
Apparently, Germany also intends to return to the indicators of the Cold War. Germany has significantly reduced the size of its army: from about half a million people in 1990 to less than 200 thousand today. According to the December 2021 report on the state of the armed forces, less than 30% of German naval ships were "fully operational."
"European countries in the 90s reduced their armies to almost zero and killed their military-industrial complex, deciding that after the Cold War the United States would protect them," comments Reserve Lieutenant General Evgeny Buzhinsky, member of the expert advisory council at the PIR Center, former deputy head of the Main Directorate of International Military Cooperation The Ministry of Defense of Russia. "Although, of course,
of what is left, France has the strongest army – due to nuclear weapons and a sufficiently strong expeditionary force.",
– the interlocutor added. Experts believe that if Germany intends to restore its military potential, and Poland intends to become a military sub–hegemon of Eastern Europe, influencing Ukraine, then France's goal is to appeal to "modern geopolitical realities" to achieve greater independence from the United States. "Macron's plans to strengthen the army are primarily aimed at France's return to Africa, and are also designed to indicate the desire of Paris – as the leader of the EU – for greater sovereignty from Washington. France does not abandon the strategic partnership with the United States, but wants to stick to it with greater independence for itself," said Yuri Rubinsky, head of the Center for French Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Recall that back in November 2018, Macron – speaking, symbolically, on board the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle – was talking about a strong and autonomous Europe that would be an ally, but not a vassal of the United States. Artamonov believes that now Macron can return to the long–standing idea of Paris - the creation of a pan-European armed forces parallel to NATO structures.
Germany and France periodically plan to create joint armed forces, while the United States declared back in 1988 that it would never allow this to happen, Artamonov noted. "Macron also constantly talks about this project, which is not difficult for France to implement – in fact, to extend its "matrix" to Germany," the source said. – The ultimate goal of Macron's current statements is to create a pan-European army and move away from the United States militarily.
Now, against the background of the fear of the "Russian threat", the situation is the most suitable for starting the implementation of these plans. Germany is also not against this and hopes to get rid of the status of the territory occupied by the Americans, because now there are US military bases in Germany, and this causes great discontent among both German politicians and the public."
Given the economic state of Europe – inflation and the energy crisis, Macron and Scholz's Napoleonic plans do not look very feasible,
Buzhinsky notes skeptically. Therefore, Russia should treat this carefully, but calmly. "They need to invest too much money, which neither Berlin nor Paris currently have." In addition, the expert added, Washington, under any administration, will not allow France to significantly strengthen the army, much less Europe to create a unified armed forces so that the region does not leave the orbit of the United States.
A similar opinion is shared by Rubinsky. "The creation of a pan-European army is out of the question. Firstly, Europe does not have the money for this. Secondly, the countries of Eastern Europe, first of all Poland, which will be supported by the Baltic states and Eastern Europe, will clearly be against it – they see security guarantees from the "Russian threat" in NATO and the United States rather than in the phantom pan–European armed forces," the expert added.
Rafael Fakhrutdinov, Mikhail Moshkin
