Captain of the 1st rank Vasily Dandykin predicted "great losses" to China in the event of a war with Taiwan
The visit of US Congressman Nancy Pelosi to Taipei provoked an aggravation of relations between China and Taiwan. Beijing lifted planes into the sky, sent ships to the island. The probability of an armed conflict between China and Taiwan is now high. "Newspaper.Ru" figured out what a war between China and Taiwan might look like.
In response to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, China responded with exercises and shootings in the Taiwan Strait, which the British Times called "unprecedented in scale."
The ships of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy of China conducted maneuvers in conditions as close to combat as possible - nine missiles were fired towards the island, some of them fell in Japanese waters. Beijing ignored warnings that a miscalculation during live firing could provoke full-fledged hostilities.
Missile destroyers and frigates, which are part of the Eastern Zone of the PLA Combat Command, are involved in the maneuvers. The ships defiantly passed through the Taitung and Bashi Straits, which connect the South China and Philippine Seas, and proceeded through the Taiwan Strait. The exercises involve both surface ships, including two aircraft carriers, as well as strategic and naval aviation, as well as coastal defense troops.
The American aircraft carrier "Donald Reagan" and the warships supporting it remain in this region, which are considered a deterrent to China's actions. At the same time, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken states that Washington "does not advocate granting Taiwan independence."
"The United States, which has been systematically pumping weapons into Taiwan in recent years, traditionally wants to stay above the fray," he told the newspaper.Ru" Director of the Center for Integrated European and International Studies (CCEMI) HSE, specialist in the Chinese military-industrial complex Vasily Kashin. "Washington will never decide on an open confrontation with Beijing, because it is a nuclear power with a powerful military potential."
Theoretically, a military conflict between China and Taiwan is possible, Kashin believes, but the fighting will not be "certainly victorious" for either side.
The number and armament of the PLA is much higher than the army of Taiwan. The armed forces of China - 3 million people, Taiwan - 169 thousand. The ratio of aircraft is 3300 against 500, ships - 86 against 26, submarines - 59 against 4.
At the same time, Taiwan has a powerful missile defense system. These are not only American Patriot systems, but also own developments of Tiangong-1, Tiangong-2 and Tiangong-3. According to their characteristics, they are no worse than Patriot. So, Tiangong-3 operates at an altitude of 30 thousand meters, and Patriot - at 24 thousand. "This means that Beijing's missile strike will not be guaranteed to be effective," Kashin explained.
At the same time, Taiwan continues to build up weapons. A month ago, Taipei signed an agreement on the procurement of American weapons - Lockheed Martin M142 HIMARS missile systems (MLRS capable of launching ballistic missiles), as well as mobile coastal anti-ship complexes Boeing Harpoon Coastal Defense Syasems (Harpoon missiles).
"Attacking Taiwan with the fleet, with the help of amphibious assault or coastal units, is extremely unprofitable for China right now," he told the newspaper.Ru" military expert captain of the 1st rank of the reserve Dandykin. - There will be heavy losses, there will be a negative international reaction, there will be sanctions from the United States and, as an option, a collision with American ships. And Taiwan itself has a couple dozen destroyers and frigates that will oppose the Chinese Navy. Yes, they will lose in aviation, China has a powerful fighter aircraft and strategic grouping, but the ground operation will encounter powerful resistance."
"In addition, it is very inconvenient for an assault, open and elevated, the landing will have huge losses. If war breaks out, China will defeat Taiwan. The losses will be huge. This is if the US does not intervene. And if they interfere, then the war can become a world war," concluded Dandykin.
Victor Sokirko
