On them, Beijing will show its readiness to challenge the US fleet in the region
The Chinese three-day full-scale live firing exercises starting on August 4 are designated by official Taipei as "unprecedented". They will pass along the entire perimeter of Taiwan, blocking normal sea and air traffic to the republic. For the first time, DF-17 hypersonic missiles are used in such maneuvers. The balance of power in the region has shifted radically towards mainland China in recent years, but its success is still not guaranteed, so Beijing can only launch a military operation as a last resort, experts believe.
Offset balance
Even before the official start of the exercises, China has increased the activity of its aviation in the region. On Wednesday, August 3, the Ministry of Defense of Taiwan reported that at once 27 Chinese fighter jets violated the so—called median line - the border in the Taiwan Strait not recognized by Beijing. Such actions have become regular this year.
Official videos from the preparatory stages of the exercises have already noted the use of the latest weapons systems available to China. Inconspicuous J-20 fighters and Su-35s purchased in Russia will be involved in the air. Land-based ballistic missiles were launched towards the sea. Mobile launchers of DF-17 anti-ship complexes capable of carrying hypersonic ballistic parts were spotted during PLA maneuvers in the coastal province of Fujian. They are positioned by China as a means of countering American aircraft carriers. Long-range artillery will also be used for the first time.
J-20 fighters
Image source: Photo: TASS/EPA/ALEX PLAVEVSKI
On the eve of the arrival of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, both operating aircraft carriers of the Chinese fleet, accompanied by other large ships, sailed to Taiwan.
Official Taiwan on Wednesday called the upcoming exercises "violating UN rules", creating a naval and air blockade of the island, and reserved the right to respond accordingly.
The military balance of power has been rapidly shifting towards China in recent years and now its superiority over Taiwan is beyond doubt, Vasily Kashin, director of the HSE Center for Integrated European and International Studies, told Izvestia.
— Now we are talking only about whether the Armed Forces of Taiwan will be able to hold out until the US approaches, — he explained. — No one seriously believes in their ability to protect the island on their own. China surpasses the Taiwanese forces quantitatively and qualitatively, there is also a purely geographical factor — the area of the island is 36 thousand square kilometers, it is a small territory fully observed by intelligence systems, including space.
The expert noted that due to the proximity to the mainland, the island is shot through not only with shorter-range ballistic missiles, but also with heavy MLRS, which are an order of magnitude superior to American HIMARS.
"Taiwan does not have enough home—based airfields, so many missiles will fall on them in the first hours that they are guaranteed to be destroyed," the expert noted.
Photo: Global Look Press/Ceng Shou Yi
Image source: iz.ru
Non-guaranteed success
Already in the XXI century, China has seriously updated the capabilities of its fleet for a potential landing on Taiwan. Since 2006, the construction of universal amphibious ships "type 071" of 25 thousand tons of displacement each has been underway. Eight units have already been commissioned. They can be supported by a pair of even larger, 40,000-ton "type 075". Both projects can land landings "from beyond the horizon" without coming close to the shore. Soldiers and equipment are being transferred by speedboats and helicopters.
In the second wave, huge colleagues can be supported by traditional large and medium landing ships, as well as mobilized commercial transport vessels.
— Taiwan is trying to apply asymmetric measures, but this does not change the balance of power, — said Vasily Kashin. — Although weapons go there for billions of dollars a year. Last year, $20 billion worth of contracts were signed with the United States alone.
China feels its power and ability to solve the Taiwan issue by force, but it also understands the risks, Vasily Kashin believes.
— This will require the largest amphibious operation — nothing like this has happened since the Second World War, — said the expert. — And she can certainly bring a lot of surprises. There may be millions of reasons why everything will go wrong, as expected, and China will not be able to gain a foothold on the island before the United States pulls its forces into the region.
According to Vasily Kashin, China, understanding the political and economic consequences of such a decision, can only take it "in conditions of hopelessness."
According to the estimates of the US Congressional Research Service, in 2020, China's military fleet outnumbered the American one. But it still seriously lags behind in the number of the largest classes of surface ships — aircraft carriers and cruisers.
The American aircraft carrier "Ronald Reagan"
Image Source: REUTERS/Yuyang Wang/File Photo
Large forces of the US Navy are constantly present in the region. On the eve of Nancy Pelosi's visit, a strike group led by the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan also approached the shores of Taiwan.
Hypersonic argument
To counter the American fleet, Beijing has made a bet, among other things, on the development of the latest weapons. If China cannot yet boast of special successes in the field of hypersonic cruise missiles, then in the field of hypersonic ballistic missile combat equipment, its achievements are already at the highest modern level.
Over the past couple of years, China has tested winged guided warheads, also sometimes called "hypersonic gliders". It is believed that such ultra-high-speed guided warheads can be equipped with both short-range missiles such as the DF-17 and 5000-kilometer DF-26. With a high probability, serial missiles of the DF-17 type with hypersonic equipment are already in service with the PLA. Such a launch was demonstrated on August 1, the day before Nancy Pelosi's visit.
If China has resolved the issue of targeting and radar homing of such a hypersonic combat unit, then with its help it will be possible to accurately hit selected ships in a marching or combat order. Protection from such ammunition at the current level of development of air defense and missile defense systems seems to be an extremely difficult task, including for such powerful as the American carrier strike groups.
The massive use of such weapons by China guarantees the destruction or at least the disabling of any American aircraft carrier that is in the affected area of such missiles — at a range of up to several thousand kilometers from the coast of the country. This will make it very difficult for the United States to provide military assistance to Taiwan in the event of a conflict.
Photo: REUTERS/Tingshu Wang
Image source: iz.ru
Reducing or completely eliminating the backlog in the capabilities of the fleet from the United States will enable Beijing to choose a forceful way to resolve the issue. But it is unclear how close this point is. And Beijing has not yet disclosed the number and exact characteristics of its "hypersonic arguments" put into service.
Anton Lavrov
Dmitry Kornev
