The Baltic Sea will lose its nuclear-free status if the Finns and Swedes still decide to join NATO. This was stated in the Russian Security Council. Military experts warn that our ground forces, combat aviation and air defense will have to strengthen the border near St. Petersburg, and some of our nuclear missiles will be re-aimed at Helsinki and Stockholm. Do Finnish and Swedish politicians really want to live in the status of potential targets?
With the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO, Russia will have more officially registered opponents, said Deputy head of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev. In this case, Russia will strengthen its western borders, and then "it will no longer be able to talk about any nuclear-free status of the Baltic," the deputy head of the Security Council stressed.
Finnish Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen said on Thursday that the country will send an application for NATO membership before the summer. "After Easter, the parliament will start discussing. And a final decision can be made by the end of May," the Minister of War promised. A day earlier, the Finnish government submitted a report to the parliament, one of the points of which is devoted to the impact on the situation of Suomi's possible accession to NATO. At the end of the report there is an annex with possible stages of accession, if such a decision is made. At the same time, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said on Wednesday that Helsinki would make a decision on filing an application in the next few weeks, Reuters reports.
As for Sweden, according to the Stockholm Svenska Dagbladet, the country's Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson has already decided to join NATO. The Swedish government plans to submit an application at the alliance summit at the end of June in Madrid. Aftonbladet reported: the ruling Social Democratic Party has already called an extraordinary meeting of its leadership for May 24, at which a decision can be made on supporting NATO membership. A similar decision was made by the opposition right–wing party "Sweden Democrats" - this means that in the Riksdag (parliament of the country) the idea of joining the North Atlantic Alliance is supported by the majority.
Confirmation of the alliance's readiness for another expansion towards the Russian borders can be considered a statement by British Foreign Minister Liz Truss, made to her on Thursday. "Russian threats against the Nordic and Baltic countries are not new and only strengthen our unity. Sweden and Finland are free to choose their future without any outside interference. The United Kingdom will support any decision they make," TASS quoted the statement of the head of the Foreign Office. At the same time and almost verbatim, German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock also spoke. "If Finland and Sweden decide to do this, then welcome," said the head of German diplomacy.
The alliance is ready to accept the two countries in the shortest possible time and with minimal bureaucratic procedures, Medvedev stated. He recalled that the United States and Canada also welcome this initiative, and called on Russia to respond to what is happening "without emotion, with a cold head."
How will the NATO border change
At the same time, we should not forget (and Medvedev reminded us of this) that the strengthening of NATO in the north of Europe is a new challenge for Russia. The length of the land borders of the alliance countries will more than double, and the borders will have to be strengthened, Medvedev said. According to him, it will be necessary to seriously strengthen the grouping of land forces and air defense, deploy significant naval forces in the waters of the Gulf of Finland. "Until today, Russia has not taken such measures and was not going to take them.
If we are forced – well: "note – we did not offer it," as the hero of the famous old movie said",
– the deputy head of the Security Council noted.
Moscow will take the necessary measures to ensure its security and defense in the event of Sweden and Finland joining NATO, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko confirmed in an interview with TASS. "It is clear that we have a border with Finland – 1300 km. This will mean a radical change in the military-political situation, and it is clear that we will have to take measures to ensure our security and defense that we deem necessary," he said, answering a question about the possibility of Russia deploying nuclear weapons in the Baltic region. The diplomat recalled that the neutral status of these states for a long time ensured a very high level of their security, and Grushko called the region "a region of peace, cooperation and a very reliable platform for building good-neighborly relations with Russia."
Recall that in the Far North, our country borders with Norway, a member of the alliance. To the south, from the Gulf of Finland to the Black Sea, a strip of the NATO countries of the "sanitary cordon" stretches from Estonia to Romania. At the same time, the Northern Baltic really remains a region of the world for now. Sweden, a neighbor "across the sea", which was once one of the leading military forces in Europe, after the Napoleonic Wars, that is, for more than 200 years, observes non-interference in conflicts. The Finnish Aland Islands have had the status of a demilitarized zone since the middle of the XIX century.
Finland, bordering Russia by land, has been outside the blocs since the end of World War II (in which it was an ally of Nazi Germany until 1944). But during the Great Patriotic War and during the war of 1939-1940, which in Finland is called "winter", this now neutral country directly threatened Leningrad. The fighting took place on the Karelian Isthmus and in Karelia proper. Marshal Mannerheim's troops, we recall, were responsible for the blockade of Leningrad from the north. Finland's entry into the next anti-Russian alliance (NATO) really means a new threat from the northwest.
Has the Ukrainian factor influenced the Finns
Deputy Head of the Security Council Medvedev refused to link the expansion of the alliance with the Russian military special operation in Ukraine, since "attempts to drag Sweden and Finland into the alliance have been made before."
"Both Finland and Sweden, despite the lack of official membership in NATO, have been participating in large–scale exercises of the alliance for the past few decades," the former head of the anti-aircraft missile forces of the Special Forces Command of the Russian Air Force, reserve Colonel Sergey Khatylev, comments to the newspaper VZGLYAD. – In addition, whole squadrons of Swedish combat aviation and ground corps participated in the Arab campaigns of the Allies. So from the point of view of military training and integration with NATO, both countries do not differ from the members of the alliance."
At the same time, Medvedev stressed that now public opinion in both countries on the need to join NATO is split roughly in half, despite the "maximum efforts of homegrown propagandists." "None of the sane people want higher prices and taxes, increased tensions along the borders, Iskanders, hypersound and ships with nuclear weapons literally at arm's length from their own home. Let's hope that the mind of our northern neighbors will still win. But if not, then, as they say, "he came by himself," Medvedev summed up.
At the same time, we note that Finnish sociologists prove that public opinion in the country has changed dramatically regarding NATO membership precisely against the background of the current events in Ukraine. The latest survey conducted by the private TV company MTV showed that 68% of respondents are in favor of joining and only 12% are against. Finnish Defense Minister Kaikkonen also appeals to these measures of public opinion. "For decades, NATO's support was about 20%. Now the mood has changed, and it has changed a lot," the head of the country's Defense Ministry said.
As for Medvedev and Kaikkonen's statements about joining NATO, "both are right," said Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council. "Medvedev refers to what NATO leaders have said repeatedly. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg stated that if Sweden or Finland want to join NATO, they will be accepted unanimously in one day. We can say that he persistently invited them," the expert noted. "But Kaikkonen is also right. According to all opinion polls, the mood of Finns has changed dramatically since February 24. If earlier a minority of voters were in favor of joining NATO, now for the first time this idea is supported by the majority."
According to Kortunov,
For the supporters of NATO, this may be a unique favorable moment to make a decision.
"Because if the conflict ends and some kind of de-escalation occurs, then most likely public opinion will return to the original balance again, when the majority will support the idea of the neutral status of the country," the expert noted.
Who is more valuable to NATO
"Finland retained its armed forces after the Cold War. In this sense, it will be a more valuable member of NATO than Sweden. Moreover, Finland borders with Russia and will create additional difficulties on the border, that is, there will be more significant consequences from the point of view of defense. The maximum that Sweden can do is to change the balance of power in the Baltic Sea," Kortunov stressed.
However, from a political point of view, it is Stockholm, thanks to its critical attitude towards Russia, that is better suited for the role of a newcomer to the alliance. "Finland has been a bridge between Russia and the West for a long time. If we talk about the geopolitical consequences, then for the Russian leadership, Finland's entry into NATO will be perceived more painfully than Sweden's entry," the political scientist added.
If Sweden joins NATO, the country's military-industrial complex will suffer, which "is already quite difficult to compete in the aircraft industry," having largely lost its position. Membership in the alliance will accelerate these processes, because "the country will begin to switch to NATO-wide models, in particular, American weapons systems." "It is no coincidence that Finland is already buying not Swedish fighters, but American F-35s," the expert recalled.
How can Russia respond
The press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov recommended waiting for the Defense Ministry's plan to strengthen the country's western borders. This is how the Kremlin representative answered the question about the possibility of deploying Russian nuclear weapons in the Baltic.
In case of admission to the alliance, the fundamental question will be the following: what exactly will NATO place on the territory of these countries, Khatylev noted. "Probably, among other things, they will be shock missile systems," the military expert suggested. – How will we respond? I must say right away: there is no need to quickly pull up and assemble nuclear weapons at the borders – they will remain in their regular positions, but they will be retargeted. Military aviation in the north will add routes and introduce additional targeting points. Also, additional Iskanders will definitely be pulled into the area. As for nuclear weapons on ships in the Gulf of Finland, it seems to me that there will be no need to place them, but the General Staff can make a decision already on the situation."
If Helsinki joins NATO, the greatest reinforcement will be carried out on the southern section of the Finnish border – to protect the St. Petersburg industrial and economic district, the expert predicts. "The approach time of enemy missiles will change significantly, after all, the distance from the city to the border is about 200 km. Therefore,
The troops located near St. Petersburg will have to be on combat duty in a constant readiness mode.
In addition, additional air defense systems of the latest models will probably be pulled there to work on low-altitude and high-altitude targets. Aviation will have to be on combat duty not in the "two" mode – at the airfield, but in the "one" readiness – that is, in the air," the military expert explained.
The naval units of the border troops and units of the Ministry of Defense along the land border will also be seriously strengthened, the analyst is sure. "If we talk about the number, then to deter it is enough to create one combined–arms unit of a full staff of two to ten thousand," Khatylev suggested.
The expert also recalled that the General Staff provides for the creation, if necessary, of aeronautical units equipped with airships or balloons. "We have military balloons made in Dolgoprudny. They can be located along the border, including with Finland, as physical protection against low–altitude targets like drones, as well as for conducting aerial reconnaissance in a constant mode," the source concluded.
Rafael Fakhrutdinov, Andrey Rezchikov