About the US nuclear policy in the new conditions
At the very beginning of March 2022, the US Congressional Research Service published a report "Russia's Nuclear Weapons: doctrinal foundations, organization of troops and modernization". The head of the team of authors of this document was Amy F. Wolf, a nuclear weapons specialist and consultant to the US Department of State and the US Department of Defense.
The appearance of this document is not accidental. On the one hand, such reporting documents are published with a certain frequency. On the other hand, after the start of a special military operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine, a discussion resumed in the US military and scientific circles about whether it is possible in the new conditions to limit the maneuver of the Russian army and influence decision-makers in Russia through "traditional instruments of influence", one of which is nuclear intimidation.
GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF THE SITUATION
Of course, the first priority for the US nuclear deterrent forces is the protection of national territory, as well as allies and partners. In addition, all US presidents, without exception, have put forward requirements according to which America should have a modern, multifunctional, sustainable, safe and reliable nuclear potential.
In the interests of ensuring the maintenance of "absolute world leadership" and "unsurpassed military power", documents of this kind published in the United States have a pronounced anti-Russian orientation.
In this regard, it is stated that it is necessary to restore the balance in non-strategic weapons, for which it is planned to modernize sea-based cruise missiles and low-power nuclear munitions, with which it is planned to equip Trident-2 submarine ballistic missiles in limited quantities.
According to the estimates of the US leadership, since the "Nuclear Policy Review" prepared in 2010, the situation in terms of global threats, including increasingly obvious nuclear threats from potential US adversaries, has deteriorated markedly. According to American experts, the United States is currently facing a nuclear threat that is more complex and diverse than ever, when potential adversaries are very actively implementing their programs for the development and deployment of nuclear weapons and their means of delivery.
In accordance with the document "Global Trends 2040" prepared by the secretariat of the Director of National Intelligence of the United States, the policies and relevant requirements that have existed so far, which were established in a more favorable environment and in conditions of more friendly relations between nuclear Powers, are assessed as insufficient. The doctrinal document focuses on the assessment of nuclear policy, strategy and related capabilities necessary to protect America in the face of increasing threats to the United States, as well as to our allies and partners.
The document under consideration focuses on the traditional principles of the US military strategy and contains recommendations regarding the doctrine and operational and strategic plans in the field of nuclear weapons and the most important policy elements needed now and in the future.
GOALS AND OBJECTIVES OF US NUCLEAR POLICY
The primary task of US nuclear policy is to deter potential adversaries from launching a nuclear strike on any scale. At the same time, preventing a nuclear strike is not the only purpose of nuclear weapons.
Given the variety of threats and their largely unpredictable nature at present and in the future, the US leadership assigns the following main tasks to the national nuclear forces (defined by the National Security Strategy of the United States):
– prevention of an attack with and without the use of nuclear weapons;
– ensuring the security of allies and partners;
– achieving the goals of US government policy in the event of the impossibility of deterrence;
– ability to respond to unforeseen situations in the future.
All these tasks are interrelated and complement each other. The effectiveness of the US nuclear forces is assessed in relation to each of these tasks and in relation to the strategy designed to ensure their implementation as a whole.
Preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons, materials or the knowledge and skills necessary to create them, and denying terrorists access to them are also key factors that guide the United States in developing nuclear policy and relevant requirements.
All these numerous goals and objectives define the fundamental principles of US nuclear policy and the corresponding needs.
NUCLEAR TRIAD: STATE AND PROSPECTS
Today's strategic nuclear triad of the United States of America, created mainly in the 1980s, consists of submarines (SSBMS), submarines armed with ballistic missiles (SLBMs), land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and strategic bombers equipped with aerial bombs or air-launched cruise missiles (SLBMs).
This triad plus non–strategic nuclear forces (tactical aircraft - carriers of nuclear weapons), together with the control and communication system (SUiS) of nuclear forces, provide the versatility and flexibility necessary to optimize the US strategy in the interests of solving the above tasks.
The growing need for versatility and flexibility, according to the American leadership, is one of the main reasons why it is urgently necessary to strengthen and improve the nuclear triad, as well as non-strategic nuclear forces and ICMS. The United States intends to maintain the existing components of the triad until the planned weapons replacement programs are implemented.
Currently, the US Navy has 14 Ohio-type submarines in service, and the Americans intend to continue to take measures necessary to maintain them in combat readiness until they are replaced by Columbia-type submarines. According to the current plans, it is planned to build and introduce into the national navy at least 12 Columbia-type submarines, which will replace the Ohio-type submarines and will provide the necessary deterrence for decades. The first new submarine is expected to reach operational readiness in 2031.
The Trident-2 SLBM is supposed to remain in service and be used on both types of SSBMS at least until 2042.
The ICBM arsenal consists of 400 Minuteman-3 missiles with a monoblock warhead placed in silo launchers in several states. In 2016, the United States launched a program to create a promising ground-Based strategic missile system (Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent). As part of this program, the replacement of Minuteman-3 missiles will begin in 2029. This program also provides for the modernization of 450 launchers to ensure the deployment of at least 400 new ICBMs.
The report of the US Congressional Research Service for September 2021 "B-21 Bomber for the US Air Force" states that the air component of the triad consists of 46 B-52H Stratofortress strategic bombers and 20 B-2A Spirit strategic bombers (with a low level of unmasking features, made using the technology "stealth") capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
The United States has launched a program to develop and purchase the next-generation B-21 Raider strategic bomber. As part of this program, from the mid-2020s, it is planned to begin replacing conventional and nuclear-capable strategic bombers of the US Air Force.
According to the annual bulletin with a review of the military potentials of the world's states, The Military Balance 2022, the B83–1 and B61–11 free–fall nuclear aviation bombs, designed to destroy various highly protected targets, will remain in the arsenal until the effectiveness of the B61-12 aerial bomb is confirmed.
The study of archival documents shows that strategic bombers of the US Air Force have been equipped with air-launched cruise missiles since 1982. They provide aircraft with the ability to operate effectively outside the enemy's air defense zone.
Since 2003, the US Air Force has been armed with the AGM-158A Jassm KRVB. In 2013, advanced AGM-158B "Jassm-ER" cruise missiles began to arrive in aviation units.
Currently, the implementation of the program for the development of new long-Range LRSO (Long-Range Stand-Off) is continuing, which will ensure the effectiveness of the triad's air component in the long term.
According to the British specialized publishing house Jane's Information Group, the basis of the existing non-strategic nuclear forces are tactical fighters F-15E "Strike Eagle", which can be equipped with nuclear bombs B61. In the future, it is planned to replace these aircraft with multi-purpose F-35A Lightning-2 fighters capable of carrying nuclear aviation ammunition.
Along with this, the program of extending the service life of B61 bombs continues.
MODERNIZATION OF THE CONTROL AND COMMUNICATION SYSTEM OF NUCLEAR FORCES
At the present stage, the United States of America needs a SUIS that ensures the management of nuclear forces in any conditions of the development of the situation, including an enemy attack with the use of nuclear weapons.
The capabilities of the system should ensure the integrity and reliability of the transmitted information, stability and viability necessary for effective neutralization of the consequences of a nuclear strike.
In peacetime and wartime, the US Nuclear Forces SUiS performs five important functions:
– detection and warning of a nuclear missile strike and classification of means of attack;
– flexible planning of military operations using nuclear weapons;
– decision-making via conferencing;
– receiving orders from the president;
– leadership and management of nuclear forces.
Nuclear weapons specialist and consultant to the State Department and the Pentagon Amy Wolf. A frame from a video from the CSIS channel on YouTube
Today's control and communications system is a legacy of the Cold War, and the last time its comprehensive modernization was carried out almost three decades ago. It consists of interconnected elements, such as space warning satellites, detection and warning radars, space communications satellites, aircraft and ground stations, stationary and mobile command posts and control centers for nuclear forces.
Currently, the SUiS of nuclear forces has problems due to both the obsolescence of its components and new increasing threats. Of particular concern to American experts are the increasing threats in outer space and cybernetic space, the strategies of limited nuclear escalation used by potential opponents, as well as the broad division of powers and management responsibilities in the structure of the US Ministry of Defense.
Given the urgent need to ensure the stability and effectiveness of the SUiS of nuclear forces, a number of initiatives are being implemented in the United States. The following measures are being taken:
– improving the effectiveness of protection against cyber threats and threats related to the use of outer space;
– improvement of the nuclear missile strike warning system with simultaneous assessment of its nature and scale;
– improving the efficiency of communication systems between command posts;
– improvement of decision support technologies;
– integration of planning and operational issues;
– reforming the management of the entire system.
INFRASTRUCTURE OF THE NUCLEAR WEAPONS COMPLEX
An efficient, easily managed, sustainable and reliable nuclear weapons Complex (NSC) infrastructure is critical to the U.S. ability to respond quickly and flexibly to changing needs.
Such an infrastructure clearly demonstrates to both allies and potential adversaries the capabilities of US nuclear weapons, thereby contributing to deterrence, security and preparedness for adverse developments.
The US Department of Defense sets operational requirements for nuclear warheads for the respective delivery vehicles. The National Nuclear Safety Administration (NNSA) under the US Department of Energy is responsible for the overall management of the implementation of R&D programs, testing, evaluation, production of warheads and their compliance with the requirements established by the Pentagon.
In the last few decades, the existing infrastructure of the nuclear power plant in the United States has had problems associated with obsolescence and insufficient funding. More than half of the NUJ infrastructure is over 40 years old.
In all previous reviews, the need to maintain a modern nuclear power plant infrastructure was emphasized. However, until now, the United States has not been able to fully provide such a modern infrastructure that would be stable, reliable and capable of responding to unforeseen developments. The creation of an effective nuclear weapons infrastructure is as much a priority as the strengthening of nuclear forces.
The report of the US Congressional Research Service for September 2021 "Review of New Military Technologies: Evolution and Challenges for Congress" draws attention to the fact that the US is striving to maintain and certify a reliable, safe and effective nuclear arsenal. Coordinating work with the Ministry of Defense, the NSN ensures the production and timely delivery of warheads necessary to maintain both strategic and non-strategic nuclear capabilities, taking the following measures for this:
– completion of the program for extending the service life of the W76–1 nuclear charger (Mk4A warheads for the Trident-2 SLBM);
– completion of the program for extending the service life of the B61–12 YAZU aerial bomb until 2024;
– completion of modernization of the YAZU W88 (Mk5 warheads for the Trident-2 SLBM) by 2024;
– synchronization of the program for extending the service life of the W80–4 YAZU implemented by the NNR with the Pentagon program for the development of long–range LRSO and completion of the program for extending the service life of the W80-4 YAZU until 2031;
– postponing the completion of the replacement program for the YAZU W78 (Mk12A warhead for the Minuteman-3 ICBM) to an earlier date in order to ensure the implementation of the program for the creation of a promising land-based strategic missile system until 2031 and exploring the possibilities of equipping Naval aircraft with nuclear charges;
– postponement of the planned date for the removal of the B83–1 nuclear bombs from service until a suitable replacement is found;
– elaboration of future requirements for the warhead of ballistic missiles, taking into account the threats and weaknesses of potential opponents, including the study of the possibility of using common warheads by the Air Force and Navy.
In the future, the United States will continue to implement initiatives aimed at ensuring the necessary efficiency, functionality and efficiency of the nuclear power plant infrastructure, as well as ensuring that personnel have the necessary skills and qualifications. In particular, it is planned to take the following measures:
– continuation of the joint program of the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Energy to develop and implement advanced technologies that meet the needs of the Pentagon;
– creation by 2031 of stable capabilities and capacities for the annual production of plutonium cores in the amount of at least 80 pieces;
– bringing existing plans to restore capabilities in the United States for the production of lithium-containing compounds in line with the requirements for the development of weapons and military equipment;
– financing of the uranium processing complex in full and ensuring the availability of sufficient amounts of low-enriched uranium for military needs;
– providing the necessary reactor power for the production of tritium in an amount sufficient to cover military needs;
– provision of opportunities after 2025 for the development and uninterrupted production in the United States of safe and reliable, radiation-resistant microelectronic systems in order to modernize the arsenal;
– accelerated implementation of a special program (Stockpile Responsibility Program) adopted by the Congress to expand the opportunities for young scientists and engineers to improve their skills in the field of design, development and production of warheads;
– development of a work plan for the NNR, in which production capabilities should be brought into line with the needs of modernization and the tasks of preparedness for unforeseen situations;
– confirmation of the need to possess nuclear bombs as a deterrent;
– preservation and expansion of computational, experimental and diagnostic capabilities necessary for the annual verification of nuclear weapons.
ESTIMATED LEVEL OF FUNDING
Over the past decades, the US leadership has emphasized that the primary task of the Ministry of Defense is to prevent an attack with the use of nuclear weapons and to maintain the necessary nuclear potential for this. Currently, 2-3% of the budget of the US Department of Defense is required for the maintenance and logistical support of nuclear forces.
According to American experts, the maximum costs for maintaining and strengthening the national nuclear arsenal in the future should not exceed 6.4% of the Pentagon budget, and this level will remain for several years.
The planned costs required to finance a long-term nuclear modernization program amount to less than 1% of the total US federal budget.
This level of expenditure is significantly lower than the 10.6% of the budget of the Ministry of Defense, which was required during the last such investments in the 1980s and amounted at that time to almost 3.7% of the federal budget of the country. And significantly lower than the 17.1% of the Pentagon budget that was required for these purposes in the early 1960s.
CHINA AS A NEW THREAT
The Intelligence Department of the US Department of Defense in November 2021 prepared a report "China: the development of the armed forces and security developments." The document discusses the state and prospects for the development of the Armed Forces of the People's Republic of China. At the same time, a significant amount of work has been devoted to the analysis of the nuclear forces of the Middle Kingdom, which, according to the American assessment, can be guaranteed to strike back.
It is also noted that official Beijing has long adhered to the policy of "not using nuclear weapons first." Despite this policy, the command of the People's Liberation Army of China, as part of the third stage of reform, paid serious attention to the development of a new generation of mobile launchers, missiles with a separable head and individual guidance units designed to provide strategic deterrence of militarily strong states. and first of all the USA.
According to an American report, the Chinese defense industry is working on a new strategic bomber, which should become a modern means of delivering nuclear weapons. Also, the military-industrial complex of the People's Republic of China is developing space early warning and fire control systems.
Currently, China is conducting research in laboratories located in the cities of Shenyang and Chengdu. Uranium enrichment works are carried out at factories in Lanzhou and Hangzhou. Nuclear weapons tests are continuing at the Lobnor test site.
In general, the modern nuclear policy of the US leadership is aimed at ensuring American interests, national security and the protection of allied countries from a potential enemy. At the same time, the main focus is on maintaining and strengthening the nuclear potential, as well as improving the infrastructure of the US nuclear weapons complex.
Vasily Ivanov
Vasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
