The NASIC report reflects either chaos in the US intelligence community, or ignorance of the situation
The US Air Force's National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC) earlier this year published a report on threats to the United States from ballistic and cruise missiles from China, Iran, North Korea and Russia. Military observer " of the Newspaper.En " Mikhail Khodarenok dealt with the details of the document, which allows us to assess the potential of the world's largest nuclear powers.
NASIC typically releases an updated version of the report every four years. The previous version dates back to 2017. The report for 2021 contains information about events in many countries, but is clearly focused on China, Iran, North Korea and Russia. Especially in the document, the data on North Korea is updated due to significant events that have occurred in this country since 2017.
The most interesting new information in the updated report is probably that the new Chinese submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) JL-3 has a separable warhead with individual guidance combat units (RGCH IN) and a firing range of 10 thousand km.
However, in general, the report can be no less interesting, even against the background of the fact that the document does not include some noteworthy new information. So, in any case, according to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).
This is a significant change from previous reports that listed a wider range of other countries, including India and Pakistan, as well as many other States that have large-scale programs for the development and mass production of cruise missiles. This omission is curious, the FAS believes, because the report contains data on all categories of ballistic missiles and on all countries that possess this type of weapon.
In addition, in some descriptions of missile programs, the report seems outdated and does not contain updated information about recent events. This, according to FAS, includes the Russian project of a mobile ground-based strategic missile system with the SS-X-28 intercontinental ballistic missile (RS-26 Rubezh), which the report depicts as an active program, but only provides data for 2018.
In addition, the report does not mention two additional nuclear-powered missile submarines that have recently joined the combat structure of China's naval strategic nuclear forces.
By the way, one of the promising Chinese missiles that the H-6N long-range bomber will receive for equipment is considered to be the CH-AS-X-13. Presumably, this product is adapted for air launch of a two-stage solid-fuel ballistic missile DF-21D. The range of fire of the CH-AS-X-13 may reach 3 thousand km. The H-6N bomber has a combat radius of about 6 thousand km. In this case, the CH-AS-X-13 missile launched from the bomber is capable of reaching the United States. There are forecasts that the Chinese aeroballistic missile will be ready for deployment in 2025.
According to the FAS, it is not known what these omissions reflect in the report: changes in the classification rules, chaos in the US intelligence community under the administration of Donald Trump, or simply basic ignorance of the situation.
Russian Nuclear Forces
As for the total number of warheads of Russian land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and SLBMs, the NASIC figure, which is about 1,400 warheads, is very close to the FAS 1420 NBC indicated and 1447 noted in the START-3 documents.
It is worth noting that this is an indicator of the total number of warheads available, and not actually installed on the missiles. Overall, this number is down from the "more than 1,500" reported in the 2017 sample report. NASIC predicts that their number will continue to decrease as a result of treaty restrictions, the decommissioning of obsolete weapons and budget cuts.
The RS-26 is an intercontinental ballistic missile, which, however, can also be launched at a range of 2,000 km, which automatically makes it a medium-range missile.
According to the 2018 NASIC information, this weapon is still under development. However, a number of other sources claim that Russia most likely refused to continue working on the RS-26 due to funding problems. And this is quite consistent with the lack of any official data on the development of the rocket after 2018.
As for Russian cruise missiles, the NASIC report mentions the following products: AS-4 Kitchen (X-22N "Tempest») with a range of more than 300 km (according to others, about 550); AS-15 Kent (X-55 different versions and Kh-555) with a range of more than 2,800 km (KH-55SM - 3500, X-555 - 2000 km); cruise missile sea-launched SS-N-21 Sampson (complex 3K-10/S-10 Granat, rocket KS-122/3M-10) with a range of 2,400 km (according to other sources, 3000 km); cruise missiles, air-launched X-101 and X-102 (no data for these krvb in the report); the winged sea-based missile 3M-14 with a range of 2,500 km; sea-launched cruise missiles 3M-55 with a range of over 400 km; cruise missile ground-based 9М728 with a range of 500 km and a cruise missile ground-based 9М729 with a range of 500 to 5,500 km.
China's Nuclear Forces
The biggest news in the Chinese section of the NASIC report is that the new JL-3 SLBM, which will be equipped with a new-generation Type 096 SLBM, will be able to deliver RCH IN and have a firing range of more than 10 thousand kilometers. Previously, "The Newspaper Said.Ru " described this product in detail.
The new DF-41 solid-propellant ICBM with the CSF-IN (CSS-20) has lost the "X" designation (CSS-X-20), indicating that NASIC believes that the development of the missile is complete and the ICBM is currently in the deployment phase. The report lists more than 16 launchers. This is probably based on the number of ICBMs shown at the 2019 military parade in Beijing and the number of ICBMs seen at the Jilantai test site.
The DF-41 ICBM is China's most powerful and long-range weapon. The maximum range of the DF-41 is estimated at 15 thousand kilometers. According to various estimates, the missile defense system includes from 3 to 10 IN blocks, including those with nuclear equipment, means of breaking through the enemy's anti-missile defense (ABM) and false targets. In the maximum version, the warhead of the ICBM is represented, presumably, by a nuclear monoblock with a capacity of 1 megaton.
The number of DF-31A and DF-31AG ballistic missile launchers according to the NASIC report is relatively small and is estimated at about 15+ and 16+, respectively. This is a bit strange, since the missile bases in China have a significantly higher number of PU. The FAS believes that the " + " sign can mean anything, and American scientists estimate the number of launchers as probably twice as large.
The DF-31AG is an advanced DF-31A that has received a multi-unit RFG. The range of the solid-fuel three-stage rocket exceeds 11 thousand kilometers.
According to the FAS, the forecast of the NASIC report on the increase in the number of Chinese nuclear warheads of intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the United States is inconsistent and contradictory. One section of the report predicts that " the number of Chinese nuclear warheads of intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US will potentially increase to more than 200 over the next 5 years."
But another section of the report says that " the number of warheads on Chinese intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of threatening the United States will grow to more than 100 in the next 5 years."
The forecast of "more than 100" was also listed in the 2017 report, and the forecast of "significantly more than 200" coincides with the forecast made in the US Department of Defense's annual report on China's military developments.
As for the Chinese intermediate-range and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, the NASIC report mentions, in particular, CSS-22 (DF-17) and CSS-18 (DF-26) IRBM (medium and Intermediate-range ballistic missiles).
Structurally, the DF-17 is a DF-16B ballistic missile accelerator with a DF-ZF hypersonic guided warhead (previously designated as the WU-14). The speed developed by such equipment is 5-10 Mach numbers. The range of the DF-17 is estimated at 1,800-2,500 kilometers. The first joint flight tests of the rocket and the hypersonic unit took place in November 2017.
The range of the DF-26 solid-fuel ballistic missile is estimated at 3000-5500 kilometers. The DF-26 is the first Chinese ballistic missile that can be equipped with a conventional warhead, which is capable of hitting the island of Guam, where the largest US strategic military base in the Pacific Ocean is located, from a distance of 4,000 kilometers.
If the Russian cruise missiles in the NASIC report are at least some figures, then the Chinese KR-only names: YJ - 63 (air-based), CJ-10 (ground-based), CJ-20 (air-based). None of China's cruise missiles are listed in the report as being equipped with a nuclear warhead.
Pakistan's Nuclear Forces
The NASIC report contains no new information about Pakistan's nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. As with several other sections of the report, the information does not appear to have been updated after 2018, if at all, the FAS believes.
The Shaheen-III SLBM (2,750 km range) has yet to be deployed, as has the Ababeel SLBM (2,200 km range), which NASIC describes as a missile with a high-frequency IN. It has only passed flight tests.
The short-range ballistic missile (close-range ballistic missiles) NASR (Hatf-9) in the report indicates a range of 60 km, that is, the same as in 2017. However, the government of Pakistan has long stated that the firing range of this system has been increased to 70 km.
The new NASIC report does not include data on Pakistan's Hatf-VII Babur and Hatf-8 Ra'ad cruise missiles. No information is provided about the efforts of the Pakistani Navy to develop a cruise missile with a nuclear warhead.
India's Nuclear Forces
As in other sections of the report, the data on Indian programs, according to the FAS, is tainted by the fact that some information does not seem to have been updated since 2018 and that India is not included in the section of the report on cruise missiles at all.
According to the report, the Agni II (range of about 3,000 km) and Agni III (range of 3,500 to 4,900 km) are still deployed in very small numbers, with less than 10 launchers. The same number of PU was reported back in 2017. This number of missiles is enough to man two brigades (one for each type of BRSD).
The Agni IV medium-range ballistic missile (range of 4,000 to 5,000 km) and the Agni V intercontinental ballistic missile (range of 8,000 km) are not yet listed as deployed in the NASIC report.
North Korea's nuclear forces
The section on North Korea is of the greatest interest to the FAS because it includes data on several systems tested since the previous NASIC report was released in 2017. This contrasts with other information provided in the report, which does not appear to have been updated since 2018.
NASIC provides official estimates of the firing range of promising North Korean missiles. In the new report, the range of the Hwasong-12 SLBM has been increased from 3,000+ km in 2017 to 4,500+ km in 2020.
The range of Taepo Dong 2 type intercontinental ballistic missiles is not estimated in the report. The firing ranges of the Hwasong-13 and Hwasong-14 missiles were increased from 5500+ km in the 2017 report to 12 thousand km and more than 10 thousand km, respectively. Advanced Hwasong-15 ICBM added to the report with a range of 12,000+ km.
Estimates of the number of warheads in the Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15 ICBMs are not given. None of the DPRK's intercontinental ballistic missiles are listed as deployed in the report.
As for submarine-launched ballistic missiles, the NASIC report indicates two types of North Korean SLBMs-Puguksong-1 and Pukguksong-3. Both have an estimated range of more than 1000 km (according to other sources, the range of the Pukguksong-3 is approaching 2000 km). The type of the Pukguksong-3 warhead is listed as "unknown"in the report. Neither the product is not maximized.
The new Pukguksong-4 SLBM, introduced in October 2020, is not listed in the report. The latest Pukguksong-5 SLBM, presented by the DPRK in early 2021, is also not mentioned in this document. Previously, this missile was reported in detail "Газета.Ru".
In general, for a number of items, the report of the National Center for Air and Space Intelligence of the US Air Force is reduced in comparison with previous versions. And throughout the document, most of the data has clearly not been updated since 2018. In some places, according to the FAS, the information is even contradictory and inconsistent.
Mikhail Khodarenok