A year later, a new motorized rifle division will be formed in the Kaliningrad region, sources in the defense Ministry said. According to military analysts, the created group will be enough to reduce to zero the threat of a NATO attack on our enclave. What methods will the West have left for armed provocations around Kaliningrad and what are the chances of forming the notorious fifth column in the city?
Next year, a motorized rifle division will appear in the Kaliningrad region as part of the 11th army corps (AK) of the coastal and land forces of the Baltic fleet stationed in the region. According to a TASS source in the region's power structures, the new unit will include separate motorized rifle and tank regiments and a separate motorized rifle brigade, which previously reported directly to the headquarters of the 11th army corps.
"The new division will receive a full set of combat support units, including an artillery regiment," the source promised. According to the staff schedule adopted in the Armed forces, the personnel of the motorized rifle division reaches 12 thousand people.
The strengthening of the Russian grouping in the Kaliningrad region has recently been proceeding at a rapid pace. In February last year, it became known about plans to recreate a full-fledged air division, which can consist of dozens of different types of aircraft. A month ago, according to Izvestia, the local units were equipped with one of the most powerful Russian tanks, the T – 72B3M. 30 cars have already arrived. The update, which will be completed in a year, will affect the tank battalions of the motorized rifle regiment and a separate brigade, which are part of the 11th army corps.
Meanwhile, NATO countries are building up their forces around the enclave. The Polish army, which has about 100,000 people, may pose a particularly serious threat to Kaliningrad. Warsaw is rapidly increasing its military spending, bringing it closer to $ 12 billion a year. An even more serious threat in the event of a conflict may be the German army, which once belonged to Kaliningrad. The Bundeswehr has more than 180,000 Members and a military budget of $ 55 billion.
At the end of November, the NATO iron wolf II 2020 maneuvers took place in Lithuania, 252 km from Kaliningrad. In addition to the Balts, the NATO Enhanced forward Presence (EFP) group in Central Europe also participated in them. Konstantin Sivkov, Vice President of the Russian Academy of rocket and artillery Sciences, recalled that four EFP bases in the Baltic are under the patronage of the so-called leading Western country. So, over Ralloy a patron of Germany, on Adazi – Canada, and in the Polish town of Orzysz chiefs – Americans.
"In this town, located 136 km from Kaliningrad, there is a combined contingent from a combined arms battalion of the US army, a compound of elite Scottish Dragoons from great Britain, an artillery battery from Croatia, a compound from Romania. NATO troops are located on the basis of a mechanized brigade of the Polish army, in operational subordination to the American contingent in Germany. The Polish military plays a supporting role in this connection.
In Soviet times, tankman Viktor Murakhovsky served near Kaliningrad-now a member of the expert Council of the Board of the Military-industrial Commission of the Russian Federation, editor-in-chief of the magazine Arsenal of the Fatherland, and a reserve Colonel. He recalls that at that time an entire army was deployed in the region, since the Soviet General staff considered the enclave a priority goal for NATO. In the 90s, this powerful group went "under the knife", the expert complains.
"But now what is already in the Kaliningrad region is enough for so – called deterrence," Murakhovsky says. "In other words, it is enough to dispel the illusion of the West that the current composition of forces can conduct some kind of rapid offensive operation that can lead to the loss of the Kaliningrad region by us." The number of NATO troops surrounding the area is not enough for an attack, he said. "If we talk about creating an offensive group, it will be absolutely impossible to hide its creation. The forces that are currently deployed, for example, in Lithuania, are only a battalion tactical group, " Murakhovsky told the VZGLYAD newspaper.
However, the NATO group in neighboring Poland is larger, the expert admitted, besides, there is an American brigade on a rotational basis, and in the future the Pentagon is going to deploy the headquarters of its division there. "Taking into account this aspect, our group is being strengthened in order to exclude a sudden strike by cash forces," the expert explained.
But if you imagine a scenario in which the West deploys a serious group that would at least theoretically be able to occupy the territory of the Kaliningrad region, if an attack really begins, then it will be reflected not only by the troops stationed in the enclave, but also by "the entire power of the armed forces" of Russia, Murakhovsky reminds. To help the encircled troops in Kaliningrad, you do not need to make your way to them from Belarus through the famous Suwalki corridor. As the Colonel explained:
"The task of the regional forces will only be to hold their positions until the rest of the Russian forces are involved."
NATO countries claim that nuclear weapons are also deployed in the Kaliningrad region. In 2018, this version was launched by Reuters. As one of the first steps to counter the "Russian threat", military analysts also suggest moving nuclear weapons closer to Kaliningrad. In particular, the American magazine National Interest wrote in late November that " the us nuclear forces should be deployed in Poland as a trump card to force the Russians to withdraw their nuclear weapons from Kaliningrad."
"The next administration should continue and strengthen President trump's strategy to strengthen military support for our NATO allies on the Eastern flank of the Alliance," the publication demands. In the West, they fear that the Iskander missiles deployed to the enclave are equipped with nuclear warheads, and in the event of a possible global war, they will be used to launch a nuclear strike.
"Although French President Emmanuel macron has declared NATO brain dead, there is hope that NATO still has the brains not to go to war with Russia," says Yuri Melkonov, editor – in-chief of the military history magazine BALTFORT, who lives in Latvia. – However, NATO leaders will continue to frighten the whole of Europe, showing Moscow their military muscle. From their side, since 2014, there has been a demonstration, or rather, an imitation of aggressive intentions against Russia, which is justified by the fact that Russia is about to Annex the Baltic States, as happened with the Crimea."
"So the deployment of a new motorized rifle division at the Baltic fleet base in Kaliningrad is Russia's expected response to NATO's actions in the Baltic," Melkonov said.
Directly attacking the Baltic exclave is like attacking the rest of Russia, said Nikolai Mezhevich, a Professor at the Department of international relations at St. Petersburg state University.
"A powerful Russian missile weapon is stationed in the region, which in theory can wash away neighboring territories into the sea without a trace
– even without the use of nuclear weapons. In the event of a global military conflict, it is impossible to predict the future." However, NATO forces stationed near Kaliningrad can theoretically commit targeted provocations against the enclave, Mezhevich believes: for example, to ensure that the Russian military at least once opened fire across the border. This can be declared a Belli incident-as proof of Russia's aggression in the Baltic region.
To prepare such provocations, the political scientist does not exclude, the authorities of the NATO countries may try to create a fifth column inside the Kaliningrad region itself. Mezhevich recalled that until recently, the region was home to the neo-Nazi group "Baltic vanguard of Russian resistance" (BARS), which called for the return of the city's name Konigsberg, for the region's secession from Russia and joining the European Union.
"Aktiv BARS is now behind bars. But there are still such groups and individuals in Kaliningrad, there are quite a lot of them," Mezhevich warns.
Andrey Rezchikov, Artur Priymak
