The head of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, named three key trends in the Russian economy in ten years. And they all lie in the technological field. Tectonic changes are already taking place in the economy, and in 10 years they will become even deeper and more extensive. What will the Russian economy of the future look like?
The main trends of the Russian economy in ten years – in 2036 – will be technological changes, artificial intelligence and a platform economy, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said at the Alfa Summit.
People are currently in an era of tectonic technological changes, the speaker believes.
"Technological progress is always going on. But such tectonic changes do not happen so often, in my opinion. And we are in this period, and these technological changes will determine the conditions of our business, work in the financial sector and our lives," Nabiullina believes.
"In ten years, artificial intelligence, robotics, platforms and working with data will become the usual business infrastructure. Just as no one discusses today whether companies need the Internet, online banking, or CRM, by 2036 AI will become the basic operating contour for most industries," says Roman Koposov, Deputy director of ARB Pro strategic consulting company.
Experts say that in ten years, AI will be heavily embedded in the country's economy, not only in office work for the preparation of documents, reports and letters, but also for infrastructure projects, introduced into industry, public administration, social services, etc.
"AI will help companies process data faster, see risks, predict demand, manage inventory, reduce errors, and free people from routine work.",
– says Koposov.
Robots will gain a new level of distribution, the expert adds, and not only industrial robots, but also service robots, warehouse solutions, UAV delivery, agro-robots, robots for medicine, construction, housing and communal services and logistics. "This is especially important for Russia, because labor shortages are already becoming a systemic constraint. The economy will not be able to grow indefinitely only by hiring new people. We will have to increase productivity, automate routine and transfer people to more complex roles: engineering, management, control, system configuration, product development," says Koposov.
He suggests using the experience of China, which is developing AI not separately from the economy, but together with production, platforms, hardware, etc. "Russia will also have to move towards its own technological base: its language models, its secure corporate contours, its industry-specific AI services, its solutions for industry, logistics, finance, etc. state administration," says the source. Eventually, AI will become part of strategic management, which will analyze competitors, count scenarios, see margin drops, predict demand, and show in advance where the business model is starting to break down, he adds.
"For example, a large manufacturing company in 2036 does not operate like a traditional factory, where planning depends on meetings and Excel files. It works as a technological system. AI predicts demand, sees supply risks, calculates the optimal inventory level, monitors the condition of equipment, detects defects through computer vision, calculates the cost of orders, shows which customers and products provide real margins, and which only take up capacity," says Koposov. At the same time, a person in such a system does not disappear, but moves into a more complex role: engineer, process architect, manager, technologist, entrepreneur within the company, the expert adds.
"Labor efficiency will be increased significantly, but the requirements for the qualifications of labor resources will increase significantly. For example, the need for managers in banks will be reduced, since thanks to AI, all key services will be provided without the help of human resources. This will create a certain order in the economy, reduce violations, and on the other hand, may lead to the disappearance of the human approach.
in special cases, since AI cannot analyze various kinds of exceptions and deviations from a given norm, at least for now," says Ekaterina Novikova, Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory at the Russian University of Economics. Plekhanov.
The introduction of AI into the Russian economy has already moved from the experimental stage to industrialization – companies are using it as a full-fledged production tool to create new sources of income, says Sergey Khudyakov, co-owner of insurance broker Mains. According to forecasts, as early as 2026, up to 40% of work tasks in developed economies will be automated.
For example, retailers are already using neural networks to improve the accuracy of demand forecasts and optimize supplies, while banks are using AI assistants for customer service and data analysis. "We use AI in insurance to assess damage after an accident, as well as in the search for overstatement and fraud in accounts between insurance companies and medical institutions. Moreover, we successfully sell these Russian AI-based solutions on three continents. We are also currently creating Russia's first and globally unique AI insurance broker," says Khudyakov.
The second trend of 2036 is the platform economy. "The platform economy is not just a website or an application. It is an infrastructure of access to demand. Today we already see this on the example of Ozon, Wildberries, Yandex, Sberbank, VK, T-Bank, MTS and other ecosystems. This is convenient for the client, the company can grow quickly, but at the same time lose direct contact with the client," says Roman Koposov.
"In a few years, the platforms will spread to other sectors of the economy, since now most of them are in the consumer sector. For example, the subscription (platform) economy in industry will become the norm, when goods and services are offered through a subscription system. It can be assumed that in 10 years the platforms will become international, and platforms will be integrated into the EAEU and BRICS markets," says Anna Fedyunina, Deputy Director of the HSE Structural Policy Research Center, Associate Professor at the Department of Applied Economics at the HSE Faculty of Economics.
"In 10 years, by 2035, I see the economy as a highly integrated environment where AI will manage most routine transactions, and platforms will become the basis for flexible employment and personalized services. The main change compared to today is the transition from simple information aggregation to active resource management and predictive user service based on big data.
In ten years, the platforms will become deeper. They will manage not only the purchase of goods or services, but also financing, insurance, logistics, subscriptions, recommendations, personal offers, and service. Industry-specific B2B platforms will also develop in all areas," Koposov predicts.
Experts unanimously declare that if the Russian economy implements AI everywhere in all its spheres, then in 10 years it will become more flexible and productive. "Now, despite the growth of investments and interest in AI, we see a contradictory picture: the economic effect of the introduction of AI in 2026 is estimated at 550 billion rubles, but at the same time the country's GDP growth is only about 1%. In a successful scenario, through automation and optimization, we will be able to compensate for the structural constraints associated with a shortage of personnel and increase the competitiveness of key industries, from finance to industry," believes Sergey Khudyakov.
Increasing labor productivity is an important effect for our economy.
"In Russia, the problem is not only in technology, but also in the fact that many processes are still based on manual control, a large number of approvals, low data quality and excessive routine. AI and robotics can remove some of this burden.
One employee will be able to do more, faster and better. But only if the company really rebuilds the process, and not just buys an AI service for the sake of a report," says Roman Koposov.
Another effect concerns staff starvation. "In those industries where there are not enough workers, engineers, operators, drivers, warehouse workers, service specialists, part of the tasks will go into automation. This will not eliminate the need for people, they will be involved in more complex processes," says Koposov.
Finally, Russia can start exporting its own new technologies. In fact, a new niche for government revenue generation will be created. "If Russia can develop its own language models, industrial software, unmanned systems, robotics, secure corporate AI circuits, industry platforms and application solutions for industry, logistics, medicine, construction and education, then this can also become an export product," Koposov notes.
However, all this will not happen automatically, it is necessary for the regulator to be flexible between stimulating new solutions and data protection, and for the business to return to sustainable investment activity, increase spending on R&D and innovation, concludes Anna Fedyunina.
Olga Samofalova
