Washington will continue to pull additional forces into the region, and Iran will try to restore its missile potential.
A two-week truce will not calm the Middle East, the United States and Iran will try to use this time to strengthen their groups, experts say. In particular, a third strike group led by the aircraft carrier USS George H. W. Bush and the aircraft carrier amphibious assault ship USS Boxer will arrive in the region. This will increase the naval aviation group to more than 200 aircraft and build up forces capable of conducting local ground operations. Iran, on the other hand, will restore access to underground missile storage facilities destroyed by American strikes, redistribute them to other locations and put them on alert. After the expiration of the truce, the conflict is likely to resume. Although this may happen sooner, Iran has already allowed a cease—fire to be abandoned after the rocket attack on the refinery on Lavan Island and Israeli strikes on Lebanon.
Missile diplomacy
The truce between the United States and Iran, concluded on the night of April 8, may be perceived by both sides as a tactical pause that will allow them to better prepare for the continuation of the war, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Moreover, the United States and Israel have not yet achieved any of the objectives of the operation.
Photo: REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein
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— Donald Trump announced the exhaustion of Iran's missile stocks, his victory, but the United States has not achieved its global goals. The government in Iran has not been displaced, the country has not been divided according to the Yugoslav scenario, and the nuclear and missile programs are still in operation. It turns out that, from a military and political point of view, Iran is currently winning," military expert Yuri Knutov explained to Izvestia.
At the same time, even a relatively short two-week truce looks fragile enough. That's how US Vice President Jay Dee Vance described him on April 8. This is how it appears even after the actual violation of the ceasefire. On Wednesday, an oil refinery in southern Iran on the island of Lavan was attacked, the Press TV channel reported. Mehr news agency also reported an explosion at a refinery in Khuzestan province.
Subsequently, the Iranian authorities allowed the ceasefire to be abandoned even if the IDF continued its strikes on Lebanon. According to the Fars news agency, they again blocked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, although they had previously opened it.
Photo: REUTERS/Emilie Madi
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— There are three critical factors that can reset the agreement, — says military expert Yuri Lyamin. — The first is Israel's position. Tel Aviv is not in the mood to include Lebanon in the perimeter of the deal and continues operations that Iran may consider a violation of the terms of the truce.
Two other factors relate to the cessation of Iran's missile and nuclear programs, Yuri Lyamin noted.
"The conflict started because of these contradictions, and they are not solvable," he reminded.
The expert did not rule out that the United States agreed to a truce under severe pressure from regional players, such as Qatar, who are afraid of being in the epicenter of a major war. But as soon as the diplomatic resource is exhausted, the fighting is highly likely to resume with renewed vigor, Yuri Lyamin believes.
Photo: Global Look Press/Noushad Variyattiyakkal
Image source: iz.ru
"Even now, the truce can be called strange," he explained. — There has been a formal regime of silence while maintaining mutual shelling. In 14 days, we will most likely return to a dead end, and the military vehicles of both countries will be ready for a new round of confrontation.
Aircraft carriers, paratroopers, and air defense systems
Both sides will try to use the truce time to build up their forces — they do not have mutual trust, experts are sure.
"The United States will first load new ammunition onto its warships and submarines," Dmitry Kornev said. — They spent a lot of cruise missiles and ammunition for air defense systems during the conflict. It is possible that the US Navy will deploy additional missile destroyers or submarines to the conflict zone. For sure, they will rest the crews or conduct a partial rotation.
The third aircraft carrier strike group, led by the aircraft carrier USS George H. W. Bush, is now moving to the Persian Gulf region (and the truce has not affected these plans). Also on the way is the aircraft-carrying universal amphibious assault ship USS Boxer, which has Marines on board. As a result, the American aircraft carrier fist in the region will have more than 200 sea-based strike aircraft, experts say.
In addition, the United States will try to replenish the ammunition of Patriot and THAAD anti-aircraft systems as much as possible. The shortage of such ammunition has been repeatedly reported in the Western media.
Photo: Global Look Press/Mc2 Jayden Brown/U.S. Navy
Image Source: iz.ru
Two weeks will be enough to transfer additional forces to the region and the same paratroopers for ground operations.
— They can be quartered in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or Bahrain, — Dmitry Kornev explained.
The United States should bring up artillery brigades (including the National Guard), which were announced earlier — without them it is impossible to conduct serious operations in the caucasus, Yuri Lyamin recalled.
The headquarters of the United States and its allies will intensively collect intelligence for 14 days, which will allow them to identify new targets for air and missile strikes.
Iranian arsenals
Iran most likely still has a large arsenal of missiles and drones, which are located in underground storage facilities blocked after the American bombing, Dmitry Kornev believes.
"The Iranian military will have to quickly clear the bombed and bombarded entrances and exits to the underground cities," he said. — It is these measures that will allow us to increase the number of missiles and attack UAVs, redistribute them to other locations and bring them into combat readiness.
Photo: Global Look Press/Iranian Army Office
Image source: iz.ru
Iran will also try to increase the capabilities of its air defense forces, which offered only sporadic resistance to the enemy during the conflict. We are not talking about serious anti-aircraft systems, but even the appearance of a sufficient number of portable anti-aircraft systems will seriously complicate the flights of US and Israeli combat aircraft, experts say.
"Iran needs MANPADS here and now,— Dmitry Kornev said. — He will look for any opportunity to get them. Negotiate supplies with China or try to purchase shipments of Russian and Chinese MANPADS in African countries. Many of them have not been particularly eager to be friends with Western countries lately, and the Iranians are highly likely to try to take advantage of this.
One way or another, both sides will spend the next two weeks building up their forces — and politicians are unlikely to be able to extinguish the flames of war in the Middle East, military experts believe.
Bogdan Stepovoy
Julia Leonova
