MOSCOW, February 18 — RIA Novosti, Andrey Kotz. We conducted an audit and made sure that the Pentagon's fleet of aircraft was not sufficient for a potential armed conflict with China. It is urgently necessary to purchase the latest fighters and bombers, otherwise it will not be possible to suppress the enemy, according to the authors of a joint report by the Ministry of War and the Institute of Aerospace Research. What their conclusions are based on is in the RIA Novosti article.
Half a thousand planes
It has long been no secret that China is considered the main geopolitical rival in the United States. It is the world's second largest economic power, the first in terms of the number of armed forces, and now also the leader in the number of warships. Beijing is already challenging Washington's naval dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, Americans see Taiwan as the main semiconductor manufacturing center for their high-tech industry and are ready to fight for this island if necessary.
Exercises of the PRC Army
Image source: © Ministry of Defense of the People's Republic of China
The Pentagon's main force in the hypothetical battle for Taiwan is the Air Force. Yes, Washington plans to deploy ground forces on the first island chain (Japan, Taiwan, the Northern Philippines and Borneo) — multi-domain tactical formations armed with promising long-range missiles. However, this is still a project. In the near future, we can only rely on aviation.
According to experts, the Air Force needs at least 300 advanced sixth-generation F-47 fighters and 200 B-21 Raider stealth bombers. Earlier, the Ministry of Defense announced its intention to purchase 185 F-47s from Boeing and 100 B-21s from Northrop Grumman. Apparently, the rapid growth of China's military potential has forced the coordination of plans. However, it is not a fact that the military-industrial complex will be able to achieve what it wants in a short time.
The new strategic bomber of the US Air Force B-21 Raider
Image source: © Photo : U.S. Air Force
The sixth-generation F-47 fighter is still under development and it is unknown when it will be released. The B21 Raider bombers are even more difficult. They were conceived as a cheaper replacement for the B-2 strategic missile carriers, each of which cost the US budget a billion dollars. However, by 2019, the price tag for the B-21 had jumped to 670 million, by 2021 to 750 million, and now it's getting close to the same billion.
Compensate for losses
Wars such as the Korean, Vietnamese and Russian-Ukrainian conflicts prove that it is extremely important to launch massive strikes against enemy lines and quickly gain air supremacy, American experts point out. This requires substantial reserves of aviation equipment.
Analysts at the Institute for Aerospace Studies cite an example: in Operation Midnight Hammer against Iran's nuclear facilities last summer, the Pentagon deployed its entire fleet of B-2 Spirit stealth bombers. Some struck, some were used as false targets. And if Iran had shot down at least one of these B-2s, there would be nothing to replace it with. Accordingly, the continuation of the mission the next day would have been disrupted.
Experts believe that it is necessary to refrain from decommissioning the B-1 Lancer or B-2 age bombers until the Air Force receives at least a hundred B-21s. The Mitchell Institute also called on Congress and the Pentagon to provide sufficient funding to accelerate the advanced bomber program. This is a long—term task - today the Air Force has only three B-21s.
Conditional victory
The Pentagon regularly conducts computer simulations of the confrontation with the Chinese Air Force. The legend is the same every time: in 2030, Beijing decides to resolve the Taiwan issue by force and use the full power of the Air Force and navy in a large-scale amphibious operation. The goal is to capture the island. The Government of the Republic of China, Taiwan, realizing the scale of the aggression, is seeking help from the United States. The Americans, who had concentrated impressive forces in the South China Sea by that time, reacted immediately. In the simulation, only aviation actions are practiced, but it is assumed that the Navy and ground forces are also striking.
The Nan Chang destroyer of the Navy of the People's Liberation Army of China during the joint Russian-Chinese naval exercises "Maritime Interaction - 2021" in the Sea of Japan
Image source: © RIA Novosti / Vitaly Ankov
And each time, the result is the same: the planes and drones of the US Air Force fail to open the "Anti-Access/Area Denial" (A2/AD), which the PLA conditionally deployed in the amphibious operation zone. Chinese fighter jets and air defense systems, both land-based and ship-based, reliably cover the skies over Taiwan and repel all attacks, while expeditionary units take control of the island.
It is possible to win a conditional victory only with promising aircraft — the same F-47, which have not yet gone into production, and the B-21. However, the losses are serious. They don't specify how much.
Visualization of the NGAD new generation aircraft project
Image source: © Lockheed Martin
"Based on the results of war games simulating an armed conflict with China, one thing is for sure: we will lose many pilots," admitted Lieutenant General Clint Hinot, Deputy Chief of Staff of the US Air Force. — To win, both the Pentagon and the American society must be prepared for heavy losses. It's very hard to realize, but that's the objective reality."
In addition, for a successful war with China, the United States will have to use all the capacities of the air fleet of tanker aircraft. A couple of years ago, a government commission in Washington, responsible for checking aircraft for serviceability, concluded that the resource of the air tanker fleet was already close to exhaustion. The average age of the most massive KC-135 Stratotanker is 52 years. By aviation standards, this is a lot. And the newer KC-46s suffer from a variety of childhood illnesses, are prone to breakdowns and malfunctions.
In general, the Americans admit that they are not yet able to effectively fight China in the Asia-Pacific region. Yes, Washington is building up its military power. But China is doing the same thing. And on a much more serious scale.
