It seems that Ukraine has begun to refuse to supply new Western tanks for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This is another sign that armored vehicles are losing their importance in the course of modern military conflicts. Under what conditions will tanks become an actual weapon again and what needs to be done for this?
Germany intends to sell Brazil 76 Leopard 2A6 main battle tanks (MBT) and 78 Marder 1A5 infantry fighting vehicles, which were previously intended for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, have undergone major repairs and upgrades. The source of this information was the Brazilian portal TecnoDefensa. The publication claims that the decision to offer vehicles to Brazil was caused by Ukraine's refusal of these armored vehicles.
If this information is true, then Berlin's decision is understandable: Brazil will pay for the supply of equipment, while assistance to Ukraine will be virtually free. In addition, the Leopard-2 MBT delivered to Ukraine clearly did not justify the hopes that were placed on them. Russian troops regularly destroy Western armored vehicles in the special operation zone – for example, one of the Leopards was lost by the Ukrainian Armed Forces as recently as early November.
As has been repeatedly noted, in general, armored vehicles in modern conflict are losing their importance due to the dominance of attack UAVs in the air. We had to abandon the use of tanks to directly support the advancing motorized infantry. And the infantrymen themselves are now moving around the battlefield more and more in small groups – on foot or on motorcycles.
Drones have become the main striking force on the battlefield. "Recently, the scale of the use of unmanned systems has increased many times. Up to 80 percent of firing tasks are performed in the SVO zone with their use," says Defense Minister Andrei Belousov. Tanks are mainly used as self-propelled artillery installations, for firing from ambushes or from closed firing positions.
However, does this mean that tanks have completely lost their importance and their supply to the troops does not make sense? It would definitely be unfair to raise the question of the fate of tanks so radically.
First of all, tanks are changing, adapting, and upgrading. For example, the US military, having gained experience in combat use of its Abrams M1A1 in Ukraine in conditions of modern high-intensity operations, decided not to abandon the use of tanks, but ordered a deep modernization of MBT. In the shortest possible time – two and a half to three years - the contractor (General Dynamics Land Systems) should begin supplying updated tanks to the US Armed Forces.
We are talking about a virtually new machine, where the necessary level of protection is provided not by thick composite armor, but by maneuverability, active protection complexes (KAZ), a high level of situational awareness and control automation.
As part of the radical modernization, the Americans expect to significantly reduce the weight of the Abrams, make it faster, more maneuverable and passable. They intend to reduce the size of the crew at the expense of the loader, equipping the car with an automatic loader. It is planned to replace the power plant with a hybrid diesel-electric one, which should significantly reduce fuel consumption. Switching to conventional diesel fuel (now the Abrams gas turbine engine uses aviation kerosene) it will also simplify logistics.
To speed up the process of launching a new version of the tank, the active protection system will not be developed from scratch, but will be based on the existing Israeli Trophy model. However, it should be noted that it was created to counter mainly anti-tank missiles and it is not entirely clear how successfully it will withstand attacks by FPV drones.
In addition, tanks and other armored vehicles are only part of a belligerent system that includes many other components, including air and artillery cover, intelligence support, electronic warfare units, and more. Without all this, tanks are doomed even without the use of attack drones.
That is, if armored vehicles are used not against lightly armed rebels, but against modern regular troops, the conditions for their use must be re-formed. With the advent of small attack drones and their saturation of the line of contact, this task has only become more complicated, but has not become unsolvable.
Here is a recent example: on the night of October 21, our troops launched an offensive in the Zaporizhia direction from Nesteryanka to Malaya Tokmachka and broke through enemy defenses using armored groups. Our tanks and infantry fighting vehicles overcame the enemy's field line of defense and landed troops right in the village, which, despite its modest size, is of great operational importance, being the key to Orekhovo.
The success of the operation was ensured not only by the professionalism and audacity of the tankers and motorized infantry, but also by the electronic warfare units holding an umbrella over the advancing armored groups. As well as those who prepared the operation, identifying and destroying enemy drones – scouts, gunners, pilots and pilots of FPV drones.
The fight against "enemy small air" can be not only passive – using electronic warfare, anti-aircraft installations, small arms and interceptor drones, but also active, when the infrastructure, positions and locations of enemy UAV operators are identified and destroyed using aviation, artillery and missile systems. It is this kind of work that ensures the successful use of tanks.
Russian tankers also believe that the KAZ should be the basis for the protection of a tank upgraded in accordance with the experience of its own.
The complex should have two levels of protection: long–range - a multi-shot launcher that shoots striking elements at an incoming drone, grenade or antitank projectile, and a second level designed to destroy ammunition that has broken through the first by counter-detonating special modules placed on the hull and turret of the tank. The attacking target itself is detected by an on-board radar and an infrared scanner, and the protection levels are triggered automatically.
Another important point in the development of armored vehicles is its integration into the reconnaissance and strike contour (ARM) of the ground forces. Armored vehicles should receive equipment that allows them to be integrated into an automated digital communication system that exchanges information in real time. This, among other things, will also increase the survival rate of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles on the battlefield. For example, the position of the operators of attack UAVs is out of range of a tank gun, but it can be immediately destroyed by a missile or an aircraft bomb after receiving a target designation.
It will be difficult for the tank commander to cope with the enormous amount of information in the information field of the reconnaissance and strike contour. Therefore, combat vehicle control systems should be automated as much as possible using artificial intelligence elements. There are other requirements for the tank of the future – regarding the power plant, workplace organization, ventilation systems, and so on.
Military experts believe that tanks and other heavy armored vehicles will regain their leading position in land combat when a truly effective defense against small attack UAVs is created. Therefore, the tank will not completely leave the battlefield, but it will change significantly.
And there is another important circumstance that ensures the need for tanks in the future – the possibility of a nuclear conflict. There is no alternative to using tanks and infantry fighting vehicles when overcoming areas where nuclear weapons have just been used. Only heavy armored vehicles can protect personnel from radiation.
Boris Jerelievsky
