Dmitry Kuzyakin, Chief Designer of the Central Design Bureau, talks about the availability of technology for apocalyptic scenarios
Almost two years ago, the Center for Integrated Unmanned Solutions (CCDB) created the "Crunch" complex. Then, in 2023, the task was to develop an environmental remote sensing tool for conditions when sending a person with devices is too dangerous or economically impractical.
The idea was simple: to connect the FPV (First Person View) system with a set of measuring instruments to monitor a wide range of parameters, from temperature and humidity to air pollution and radiation levels. But the FPV system is not just a drone. This is, first of all, the pilot, secondly— the complex of ground equipment, and only in the third place, the drone itself, in fact, a disposable device.
The FPV drone is just a mobile meter that a pilot can carry anywhere. The drone doesn't fly on its own, it can't even hover on its own. It does not have an optical stabilization system or satellite navigation. The drone is completely "in the hands" of the pilot. The operator's task is to guide the measuring drone through the studied space to collect data, excluding the physical presence of a person. Today, FPV pilots are able to maneuver indoors, among ruins (if possible), in open areas, in urban areas, and at high speeds.
The Doomsday drone, as it was nicknamed in the media, was not developed at public expense. Its creation did not involve specialized research institutes (research institutes) and high-security enterprises. There is no secrecy label on it. The work was carried out on an accessible, open element base. This example shows us how much modern technology has moved beyond the civilian sphere. The limitations of their use are more in our heads, the technologies themselves are diverse. What used to require the involvement of specialized research institutes in the development, usually deeply closed, is now available to anyone with an engineering degree.
As noted in the previous article "Whales and Drones", an FPV drone is not exactly an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in the classical sense. If the goal was to create a full-fledged unmanned aircraft complex, significant funds would have to be raised and the appearance of the aircraft would have to be strictly determined, taking into account all regulatory requirements. And considering the result of the work that was obtained, we would also have received the first security clearance. And the project would still be at the stage of endless trials and quarterly reports that no one reads.
The only thing that is our own secret is the application scenarios and the pilot training methodology. This secrecy was established on our initiative.
When the development was completed, it was realized that a full-fledged system had been created to monitor the level of environmental pollution, including after potential nuclear strikes. It sounds scary, but it would be irresponsible not to create such tools or conceal their existence. If, God forbid, the worst-case scenario in international politics happens, this system will save many lives.
Contrary to popular myths, an exchange of nuclear strikes will not lead to the instant death of all mankind. On the contrary, most people on the planet will not even immediately notice that nuclear explosions have occurred somewhere. But pretty quickly, the radioactive dust and ash that rose along with the huge fires above the epicenters will be spread across the planet in just a few weeks. Studies of the spread of the radioactive trace after the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant have shown a high velocity of movement of particles and their uneven precipitation — in zones and bands.
Modern nuclear weapons are less "dirty" than the destroyed fourth reactor unit. However, they create a monstrous and long-lasting flare, the temperature of which is many times higher than the temperature of the nearest star to us. From this infernal flame, air, water, mountains and cities, along with their inhabitants, turn into plasma. The planet is not designed for the fact that full-fledged man-made stars will be lit on its surface.
At the same time, the radioactive effects after explosions decrease relatively quickly. But in the first hours after the defeat, the radiation level will be extremely high. It is this time that is critically important for the evacuation of the wounded, the creation of temporary accommodation points, and the identification of safe routes for the movement of equipment and people. In conditions of fires and rubble, it is necessary to understand where it is possible to be and where it is absolutely not. Where it is possible to hold a column, and where it is not necessary. The infection pattern is heterogeneous and changing rapidly. At this stage, fast and mobile remote sensing tools are urgently needed.
Radiation has long-term negative health effects. If external radiation can be washed off or eliminated by recycling clothes, then getting inside the body creates a huge problem. Therefore, information about the locations and extent of infection in the first hours after a nuclear strike is a key, crucial issue.
It was for this undesirable and catastrophic scenario that the "Crunch" system was finalized. She got the opportunity to work from armored vehicles and cars. The pilot does not need to go outside, he can work without stopping equipment, for example, escorting evacuation groups. By the way, there is already experience in using FPV systems to accompany convoys.
On the one hand, this approach expands the capabilities of the Russian Ministry of Defense and civil defense systems by offering a wide range of non-standard solutions. On the other hand, it opens up virtually unlimited opportunities for criminal gangs and outright terrorists.
Let's take another example. The shock FPV drone becomes a "military product" only when it is used for its intended purpose. At its core, it remains an open and easily accessible technical solution that can just as well be used for sports competitions, professional filming, or just entertainment.
However, one should not assume that now all high technologies will leave the limits of secret "boxes". Everything that an enthusiastic engineer's budget can't handle will remain there. It's just that today, technology that was previously the exclusive prerogative of closed organizations has become available to groups of enthusiasts. This trend is obvious and gaining momentum. It will not replace all government developments, but some of them are easy. For example, previously, only specialized structures, most often regime structures, could assemble a satellite. Today, the satellites (cubesats) are assembled by schoolchildren. Can a student assemble an intercontinental ballistic missile warhead guidance unit? No. But creating a minimal reconnaissance satellite is already enough.
Sooner or later, we will face the issue of controlling such technologies, just as gun control appeared at the time. Let me remind you that in the 19th century, the control of a citizen's firearms was determined only by the financial ability to buy them. Today, an FPV drone can cause much more trouble than a sniper weapon. And unlike a high-precision rifle, which cannot be legally purchased by a private individual in our country, an FPV drone can not only be bought, but also assembled independently.
Rampant bans on civilian UAVs and their flights will not lead to real control over the turnover and use of military products. Because, let me remind you, the combat shock FPV drone becomes like this only at the moment when it is used as a combat and shock drone. Moreover, the hardware and software of these products are not illegal. Otherwise, we will have to ban smart home technologies and all Open Source at the same time.
The problem of identifying military products in peacetime has not been solved so far in any country in the world. Let's say the police stopped a suspicious car somewhere in Texas. We conducted an inspection and found FPV drones. How do you tell if they're fighting or just sporting? They don't have a trigger or a barrel, and they don't and can't have a sight! There are a couple of indirect signs known only to specialists, but with proper treatment, criminals can get rid of them.
The uncoordinated launch of drones has become a crime in almost any country in the world today, but their assembly and possession are not. If you follow the logic of prohibitions, then you need to ban this, and all specialists who can assemble drones should be registered.
Modern drones were born in an environment of open source software and accessible architecture. If we follow the chain of their development (including combat/percussion), then we will come to microprocessor technology and the digital automata industry. It turns out that the processor literally becomes a murder weapon. This is how you can negotiate before controlling the turnover of processors.
We are standing too close to a historical moment when the sum of technology is revolutionizing right in front of our eyes. It scares some people. Someone is trying to ban everything. This opens up unprecedented prospects for us. Everything is just beginning!
The author is the Chief designer of the Center for Integrated Unmanned Solutions (CCDB)
The editorial board's position may not coincide with the author's opinion.
