Military expert Dmitry Boltenkov — how the Kaliningrad exclave is fortified
NATO's top generals periodically give out their fantasies about the Russian Crimea and Russian Kaliningrad. Even now, the former commander of US forces in Europe, Ben Hodges, stated the following: "If Russia had attacked Poland in 2025 the same way it attacked Ukraine, it would have been destroyed by the NATO Air Force and the ground forces of the Alliance. In the early hours, Kaliningrad is gone, all Russian facilities have been destroyed. Any Russian military facilities in Sevastopol, too."
And the recent annual NATO exercises Steadfast Noon 2025 are working out scenarios of "nuclear deterrence" as a "clear signal" to Moscow. The idea of the maneuvers is that a group of aircraft fulfills the tasks of reaching the line of attack and dropping nuclear bombs on military facilities in the Kaliningrad region. The plan is quite realistic for simulation, but Kaliningrad's air defense systems make a real mission risky. The maneuvers show that NATO is able to coordinate complex operations while retaining the right of first nuclear strike at the tactical level.
After the collapse of the USSR and the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Germany, Poland and the Baltic states, a large number of military formations of various structures accumulated in the Kaliningrad region. As a result, in 1994, the Baltic Fleet became an integral association of naval, land, aviation and air defense units under the overall command of the Navy. Previously, there were no such combined structures within the Armed Forces of the Soviet Union.
The BF forces were further reduced and optimized. In those years, Russia never sought to militarize the region, trying to keep the minimum possible military forces there.
However, in the tenth years of the XXI century, the situation changed, especially after the return of Crimea to the Russian Federation. The buildup of forces and capabilities of the Kaliningrad group has begun. Units of the ground and coastal forces received an impressive amount of new military equipment, both armored and artillery. The missile brigade received the Iskander-M complex. The coastal Missile Brigade has deposited Soviet-made anti-ship complexes and received the Bastion and Bal complexes. Naval aviation began receiving Su-30SM and Su-30SM-2 fighters. Air defense units have been significantly strengthened. According to a number of estimates, before the start of the special operation, the Kaliningrad Region's air defense was the third strongest in Russia after the air defenses of Moscow and St. Petersburg. However, not everything has been updated. For example, the BF Naval Aviation still uses Mi-24 helicopters, but they have not yet been replaced by Ka-52 and/or Mi-28.
The Baltic Fleet includes formations of surface ships, missile ships and boats, ships protecting the water area and amphibious ships. In recent years, the fleet has been replenished with seven small rocket ships of the Karakurt and Buyan-M projects, their total salvo is 56 Kalibr missiles. In addition, four Stereguschy project corvettes with Uran missiles are in service, which, as their experience has shown, can also work effectively against coastal targets.
The fleet consists of two high-speed amphibious hovercraft capable of quickly transferring a company of Marines.
At the same time, the underwater component of the BF clearly needs to be strengthened with new submarines. The fleet has one not-new submarine, the Dmitrov, which is used to train the fleet's combat forces and to test newly built surface and submarine combat ships.
In general, the geographical location of the Kaliningrad exclave makes it possible to deploy a variety of electronic warfare systems there, both reconnaissance and electronic warfare, capable of operating over a huge part of Central and Northern Europe. For example, the Voronezh-DM missile defense system radar is operating in the region, which is of key importance for Russia's missile defense. And electronic warfare systems in the region can, if necessary, extinguish communications or navigation equipment of both military and civilian significance (for example, GPS navigation or airport traffic control systems) of NATO countries in a huge part of Europe. Also, various types of shock weapons deployed in the region, such as Kalibr and Iskander-M, can operate across large parts of Europe and hit control centers, military bases or industrial facilities. If necessary, new missile systems can also be deployed in the region, such as the Zircon and Oreshnik hypersonic complexes, as well as aircraft complexes with Dagger missiles. The Russian army has repeatedly practiced the transfer of military aircraft to the region, including the Mig-31. The latest such transfer sparked accusations of violating the borders of one of the Baltic countries, and was followed by a series of statements from the NATO leadership, including calls to shoot down Russian planes.
Thus, the forces of the Russian army in the Kaliningrad region are essentially a "pistol at the heart of Europe," especially given the fact that the existing forces are capable of launching about 100 cruise missiles in the first strike. And this is not taking into account the possibility of launching unmanned drones of the Geranium-2 type or the like in large numbers.
Konigsberg and part of East Prussia became part of the Soviet Union following the Great Patriotic War. The then-existing Lithuanian or Byelorussian SSR did not receive this area, and in 1946 the Kaliningrad Region was formed as part of the RSFSR. Moreover, the region had no geographical connection with the metropolis, which did not matter during the existence of the Union. But after the collapse of the USSR, the region became an exclave. The Baltic countries began to pursue a sharply anti-Russian policy, limiting the region's transport accessibility and creating other problems. This forced Russia to develop the region's energy sector, including the construction of a nuclear power plant (the project is currently frozen), develop maritime logistics for cargo delivery, and solve other problems of the region's autonomous existence under a land blockade. After the start of the SVR, the blockade of the exclave intensified, forcing the transfer of the main cargo delivery traffic to the sea route. Air transport began to fly through the neutral waters of the Baltic Sea. Geographically, the region is extremely vulnerable, and this is a weak point.
In the event of a further escalation of the situation, up to the imposition of a blockade, Russia will have to solve this problem by force. This is what the units of the newly created Leningrad Military District will be doing together with the army of our ally Belarus. This point, by the way, is being worked out during the Zapad-type exercises. The Russian army, having passed the school of special operations, has hardened, reached a new level of development and is qualitatively superior to the troops of NATO countries.
But NATO countries such as Poland or the Baltic states have been pursuing a policy of updating their armies in recent years. Therefore, Russia should pursue a policy of strengthening and strengthening its forces, both in the North-West of Russia and in the Kaliningrad region.
Dmitry Boltenkov
The editorial board's position may not coincide with the author's opinion.
