Colonel Khodarenok: Iran's response to the United States is unlikely to be effective
B-2A strategic bombers of the US Air Force and ships of the US Navy attacked Iran's nuclear facilities in Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz. GBU-57 bunker buster bombs and Tomahawk cruise missiles were used for strikes. The damage from the US attacks on Iran has not yet been assessed, and Tehran has not yet retaliated. How events will develop, argues the military observer of the newspaper.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok.
The United States used GBU-57 bunker buster bombs and Tomahawk sea-launched cruise missiles (30 units), which were launched from multipurpose nuclear submarines.
According to preliminary data, six B-2A strategic bombers from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri participated in the strike. It is there that the 509th Bomber Wing of the 8th Air Force (AFGSC Global Strike Command) is stationed - the first and only one in the US Air Force armed with B-2A strategic bombers.
Despite the very large distance to the targets on the territory of Iran, similar experience in the combat use of aircraft of this type was worked out by the US Air Force in numerous exercises and during the armed conflict in Yugoslavia in 1999. At that time, the B-2As were in the air for more than a day and carried out four aerial refueling operations. However, it is possible that this time the bombers took off from the Diego Garcia forward airbase in the Indian Ocean.
It is still difficult to judge how successfully the assigned combat missions of the US Air Force and Navy were completed to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities during combat sorties on the night of June 22. It is possible that after the six GBU-57s were dropped into Fordo, the ground layers shifted and the targets were hit, although the Iranian side, of course, denies this.
Reuters, citing a senior Iranian source, noted that Iran had removed most of the enriched uranium from Fordo before the attack.
What kind of bomb?
The GBU-57 bomb is a correctable, but still a free-fall munition. To defeat a target, the carrier of this means of destruction must be brought practically over the bombed object, the ratio of the bomb after dropping will be measured in kilometers in this case (with a bomber speed of 900 km / h and a bombing altitude of 11 thousand m, the ratio of the bomb will be approximately 10 km).
And this suggests the following. The Israeli Air Force has gained complete dominance in Iran's airspace, which made it possible to carry out an almost unhindered flight of B-2A strategic bombers to the target and return them without loss to the airfield of departure.
Of course, the US Air Force has also taken all necessary measures to ensure the safety of its combat vehicles, each of which is worth more than $ 2 billion. First of all, this concerns the issues of electronic warfare and electronic stealth of the aircraft itself.
Among other things, Iran was most likely to involve the United States in an armed conflict and a subsequent strike on a nuclear facility, primarily at Fordo.
Most likely, it was there that the best forces and air defense systems available to Tehran were concentrated. And the result is a zero result in terms of the effectiveness of anti-aircraft missile and aviation protection of Iran's most important facilities.
Strategic bombers of the US Air Force, as in exercises, bombed targets in Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz. Once again, not a single word has been heard about the Islamic Republic's combat aircraft. Again, there was not a single Talalikhin-type pilot.
One more point should be noted: US multi-purpose submarines took part in the strikes on Iran by the United States. As a reminder, the Navy is subject to the concept of operational deployment of naval forces. That is, in this case it is very difficult to speak, for example, in such categories: In the morning, I set a combat mission, and an hour later the sailors completed it.
It usually takes a considerable amount of time for ships to deploy and reach their operational areas. This suggests that the White House's decision to strike Iran was made in advance, and by definition there can be no question of any spontaneity here.
What will happen next?
In the modern world, since the time of the Trojan War, only one rule continues to apply - whoever has more divisions is right. And the United States is a prime example of this.
If Iran does not agree to the terms of Israel and the United States, then, most likely, the following will happen. U.S. Navy aircraft from aircraft carriers deployed in the region will join the strikes on targets in the territory of the Islamic Republic. The strategic aviation of the US Air Force will be fully involved from bases on the continental part and forward-based airfields. In short, the intensity of attacks on Iran will increase dramatically.
As for Iran's retaliatory actions (first of all, attacks on US bases in the region), the Pentagon probably envisaged such a possibility. There is no doubt that the air defense/The missile defense systems of these facilities have been strengthened, the personnel of the US Armed Forces and material reserves have been dispersed.
As for the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, Tehran obviously does not have enough forces and means for this. And the reaction of even Iran's sympathizers to such a step by Tehran is unlikely to be positive. Iran frankly will not be able to compete with the US Navy at sea. The Americans will send all the ships of the Islamic Republic to the bottom in a fairly short time.
What conclusions should Russia draw from what is happening? There is only one order of magnitude - it is necessary to further strengthen the operational and combat capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces. In particular, it is necessary to conduct further theoretical and practical work on the issues of gaining air supremacy by the Russian Aerospace Forces in the conflicts of the 21st century. To continue the search for optimal organizational and staff structures to solve this problem. Adopt aviation weapons of destruction, similar and superior to the performance characteristics of the GBU-57. Modernize the fleet of strategic bombers of the Russian Air Force to perform combat missions with bombs of this type.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
