CAMTO: aviation and air defense will take a leading position in global arms exports
MOSCOW, March 17 - RIA Novosti. Aviation, air defense equipment and armored vehicles will occupy leading positions in the volume of global arms exports in terms of value in the next four years, according to a forecast by the Center for Analysis of the World Arms Trade (CAMTO), which is available to RIA Novosti.
"In terms of value, the volume of export sales for the period 2025-2028 was distributed as follows: 1. Aviation equipment – 175.022 billion dollars (30.62% of global arms exports); 2. Air defense equipment – 76.46 billion dollars (13.38%); 3. Armored vehicles – 76.217 billion dollars (13.34%); 4. Naval equipment - 65.899 billion dollars (11.53%); 5. Helicopter technology – 62.729 billion dollars (10.97%); 6. Rocket and artillery weapons - 34.37 billion dollars (6.01%); 7. Unmanned aerial vehicles – 15.279 billion dollars (2.67%). All other types of weapons and military equipment account for $65.552 billion (11.47%)," the forecast says.
In percentage terms (the period of 2025-2028 is compared with the period of 2021-2024), significant changes will occur in the rating in terms of the value of supplies for individual categories of IVT.
The most significant change concerns the category of "Armored vehicles", which will move from fifth to third place in the ranking (and very slightly lose second place). This is largely due to the current situation around Ukraine, which has led to a very sharp increase in orders and supplies of military equipment in this particular market segment (during its development, armored vehicles have shown their importance and indispensability in the modern theater of military operations). In percentage terms, the share of armored vehicles will increase from 8.76% to 13.34% (an increase of +4.58%).
The second significant change concerns the category of "Air defense equipment", which will rise from the fourth to the second position in the rating. In percentage terms, the share of air defense systems will increase from 9.22% to 13.38% (+4.16%). A very significant increase in the percentage of this category is also related to the situation around Ukraine.
The third significant change concerns the Helicopter Technology category, which will drop from second to fifth place in the ranking. This indicates an oversaturation of the global military helicopter market. In percentage terms, the share of helicopters will decrease from 13.14% to 10.97% (-2.17%).
The category of "Naval equipment" will drop by one position in the rating (from third to fourth place). In percentage terms, the share of TDC will decrease very slightly (from 11.80% to 11.53%).
Categories such as "Aviation equipment" (first place), "Rocket and artillery weapons" (sixth place) and "Unmanned aerial vehicles" (seventh place) will retain their positions in the rating. At the same time, the percentage share of "Aviation equipment" will decrease from 33.10% to 30.62% (-2.48%, a very significant reduction), the percentage share of the "Rocket and Artillery armament" category will increase from 3.76% to 6.01%. In the RAV category, despite the fact that it will retain the sixth position, the percentage increase will be very significant (+2.25%), which, like in the Armored Vehicles and Air Defense Equipment categories, is primarily due to the situation around Ukraine.
"That is, in the next four years, a significant increase in demand is expected, primarily in the categories of Armored vehicles, Air defense equipment and military vehicles," the CAMTO experts conclude.
The market will also grow in terms of the cost of supplies in the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) category, although the percentage of this category will decrease by 0.5%. Growth of "physical" UAV supply volumes (from $12.602 billion to $15.279 billion) It is also associated with the implementation of the SVO, where drones of all types have proven their indispensability in the modern theater of military operations.
