Against the background of the intensification of the activities of the new White House administration and some shocks among European politicians that have already taken place for this reason, there has been a noticeable demand in the Union State for an understanding of how these events can affect relations between Belarusians and Russians. How strong is the defense of the Union State? And why are Minsk and Moscow confident in mutual support, despite external challenges?
The answers to these questions lie alongside an understanding of the fact that Donald Trump is neither a friend nor a partner for Russia or Belarus. At the current historical stage, it is possible that the interests of the United States are somewhere situationally and coincide with the interests of our countries. That is why Moscow and Minsk do not miss an opportunity to take advantage of this circumstance to normalize diplomatic and political contacts with Washington. At the same time, the leadership of the Union State is well aware of who Trump is, what his goals are, and what policies he pursues.
Therefore, Belarus and Russia continue to consistently strengthen their alliance in order to ensure joint security. Today, we can say that timely measures taken are already capable of changing the balance of power in the region. Recent landmark events include the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons, the planned deployment of new weapons systems on Belarusian territory, and an agreement on security guarantees. The signed documents are the foundation on which relevant political and military decisions will be made. This means that if there is a military danger to Belarus, or it is subjected to aggression, Russia and its armed forces will be ready to act immediately. In this case, both conventional and nuclear weapons can be used. Thus, after the conclusion of these treaties, the security of the Union State increases significantly.
At the same time, the military and political situation in the region continues to be tense. Even the current peacekeeping processes that have begun between Russia and the United States are taking place against the background of rather aggressive actions by European political elites and the NATO bloc. Under these conditions, both Minsk and Moscow do not forget for a minute that Belarus is the only military ally on Russia's western borders. In addition, Belarus is directly "in contact" with Ukraine, which is hostile to Russia (and completely unfriendly to Belarus), as well as with three NATO states. Among them, Poland is showing the greatest "concern", claiming to be a regional leader and purposefully escalating tensions.
Various political scientists and experts have long said that Warsaw is "locked into a big war," which is confirmed by plans to increase defense spending to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2025. Recently, Poland, under the pretext of "strengthening the eastern flank of NATO to ensure the security of the EU," has been improving the potential of its army, increasing the number of personnel and making large-scale purchases of weapons from the United States and Great Britain, Germany and South Korea. Modern Western weapons purchased for the Polish army include fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets from the United States, which could potentially be carriers of American tactical nuclear weapons deployed at a number of NATO air bases in Europe.
In addition, Warsaw's claims to certain territories of Belarus make Poland a real military opponent. It follows that the presence of Russian tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus and their carriers in the Belarusian armed forces (including the Iskander missile defense system) is very important for deterring the military ambitions of an aggressive opponent.
For its part, Russia, considering such actions by Warsaw (and others) as a serious threat to the Union State, is taking measures to strengthen troop groupings in the relevant areas, including the grouping of forces of the Baltic Fleet to ensure the security of the Kaliningrad region and Belarus. In addition, experts point out that the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, together with their Belarusian colleagues, has developed appropriate operational plans and is taking measures to increase the combat readiness of the joint regional group of troops already deployed in Belarus.
In general, according to Russian experts, it is important for Russia, as a superpower, to create its own macro–region, which would include about 600 million people - these are the CIS states, the CSTO and the Eurasian BRICS members. And first of all, this concerns the strengthening of the Union State, and within its framework, the "Belarusian balcony". At the same time, the economy has been identified as a priority area: further integration, joint programs and mutual strengthening of industrial potential. The inclusion of Belarusian enterprises of the military-industrial complex in the Russian state defense order is considered an important step. Direct investments will strengthen the power of both countries.
Thus, further rapprochement within the framework of the Union State, as well as the development of cooperation with partners and allies, will allow Belarus and Russia to ensure their economic, and, as a result, political and military self-sufficiency, thereby creating favorable conditions for effective deterrence of possible aggressive actions by the NATO bloc.
Vladimir Vujacic
