Alexander Stepanov — forecasts of the consequences of Trump's decision to suspend arms supplies to Ukraine
The order of US President Donald Trump to suspend all military aid supplies to Kiev came into force on March 4 at 04:30 Moscow time. It is obvious that without the support of the United States, the Zelensky regime will face serious problems in a few months. Limited ammunition stocks, equipment wear and tear, and dependence on satellite communications and intelligence complicate the situation. At the same time, European allies will not be able to fully compensate for the loss of American aid. What difficulties will Ukraine face in the near future?
Artillery
First of all, mention should be made of previous US supplies. The Pentagon has supplied Ukraine with M-777 long-range howitzers and about 3 million shells for them. Another half a million rounds of ammunition were transferred by the Czech Republic. Taking into account the daily consumption (from 6 thousand to 15 thousand shells) Since April 2022, these reserves have been almost exhausted and the remaining reserves will last for several months. After that, the artillery will be left without ammunition unless there are new trenches.
In addition, the artillery systems supplied to Kiev, in particular the M-777, are being destroyed, and, according to various statistics, about 150 units out of 200 have already been burned. The depreciation of the remaining 50 systems during operation, and the survivability of barrels during intensive use also do not allow for this amount of daily ammunition consumption. Therefore, not only without the supply of weapons, but also without the appropriate technical support of these expensive and complex systems, their operation is practically impossible.
High-precision systems and aviation
The HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) supplied by the United States have a limited supply of ammunition. Their consumption is also quite intense, and long-range ATACMS are estimated at a maximum of dozens. Without new shipments, their efficiency will quickly decrease, approaching zero.
We should not forget about the American Switchblade barrage ammunition, all GPS navigation of which was provided by American capabilities.
The provision of missiles for the F-16 is also in question. The same AGM-88 HARM anti—radar and AGM-158 (JASSM) air-to-ground missiles with a range of up to 500 km were supplied by the Americans. Other guided bomb planning systems with precision guidance kits for Joint Direct Attack Munition bombs that could potentially be used with the F-16, for example, are not independently manufactured by Europe and are dependent on supplies from the United States. Consequently, the Kiev regime also lacks a full-fledged additional source of support for the military-air component.
AIR DEFENSE
A key element of defense is ensuring the safety of airspace and the air defense cover of the most important decision—making centers, including military control (primarily in Kiev). Here, the main role is assigned, of course, to the Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM), which are equipped with expensive weapons produced exclusively by the American military-industrial complex (MIC). The Armed Forces of Ukraine are also armed with Norwegian NASAMS and German IRIS-T air defense systems, but there are serious doubts whether they are equipped with sufficient ammunition. Accordingly, in the event of a cessation of supplies, the entire missile defense system of the Kiev regime will be paralyzed.
Under the condition of a massive combined strike using missile weapons and drones, the enemy's cover system will be guaranteed to be overloaded. And the increased consumption of ammunition will lead to the unavailability of these funds in just a few acts of use. As a result, Kiev remains without the protection of American air defense systems.
Connection
The next point is not directly related to military assistance, but nevertheless provides a very significant function, namely military communications and guidance of various high—precision systems and attack drones. We are talking about satellite communications, primarily Starlink systems.
Given the close affiliation between Elon Musk and the current Trump administration, it is possible that a decision to disable Starlink will be made in the near future. Thus, there is a high probability of paralysis of the control system of robotic autonomous complexes, primarily aerial drones. This will be a very serious blow to the entire defensive infrastructure of the Kiev regime. Also, in this case, the data exchange system at the front level and ensuring the controllability of formations of troops and specific units will be blocked, given that before that they worked on the Delta platform, whose communication is provided primarily by Starlink capabilities.
Intelligence information
Finally, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are losing access to data provided by US intelligence agencies, among others. We are talking about space satellite exploration, the data of which was supplied primarily by American private space companies, such as Maxar Technologies. It should be noted that the British have the appropriate capabilities, but they do not increase operational awareness as much as they do not have global coverage. So without the American intelligence potential, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will remain blind.
Conclusion
It is obvious that the termination of US military assistance will cause significant damage to the potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and it is obviously not necessary to talk about the long-term possibility of resisting the intense pressure of the Russian armed forces. We can really talk about a few months at most.
However, the owner of the Oval Office ordered only the suspension of arms supplies, this is still a demonstration of intentions. Time will tell how it will really affect the situation. And most importantly, it becomes obvious who really sponsored the conflict and managed the escalation before, mistakenly hoping for the effectiveness of this thoughtless and dangerous strategy for all mankind.
Alexander Stepanov
Program Director of the Academy of Political Sciences, Senior Researcher at the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ILA RAS)
