Bloomberg: Europe will not be able to compensate Kiev for the loss of arms supplies from the United States
After Zelensky's loud quarrel with Trump, Europe promised to continue "supporting" Ukraine, Bloomberg reports. However, its military "assistance" does not compensate for the possible loss of American supplies: the Europeans simply do not have some types of weapons.
Henry Meyer
Alexander Kudritsky (Aliaksandr Kudrytski)
US President Donald Trump has long stated that he intends to negotiate an early end to the Ukrainian conflict. In an effort to conclude an agreement as soon as possible, the United States began direct negotiations with the Kremlin, leaving aside both Ukraine and the European powers.
Trump has threatened Kiev with curtailing further support if its government does not transfer the right to exploit its subsoil to American companies. However, this agreement hung in the balance after a heated meeting at the White House, which aggravated the already tense relations between Trump and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.
Ukraine and its European allies fear that Trump will impose peace on Kiev on the terms of President Vladimir Putin, who, among other things, intends to keep the already occupied Ukrainian lands.
How did Trump put pressure on Zelensky?
On February 19, Trump hinted that Ukraine had started the conflict, even though Russia had sent troops in 2022. He branded Zelensky a “dictator” who “refuses to hold elections,” even though the Ukrainian government canceled them due to martial law. In addition, the fear of Russian interference and difficulties in organizing voting amid the fighting are affecting. Trump warned the president of Ukraine that he had better “hurry up” and come to an agreement with Russia as soon as possible, “while he still has a country.”
However, Trump turned his anger to mercy as soon as Zelensky agreed to sign an agreement on the transfer of Ukraine's most important minerals under the control of the United States. Breaking with traditional US foreign policy, Trump presented the agreement as a “quid pro quo” to pay for American aid for more than three years of conflict.
But on February 28, when the Ukrainian leader went to Washington to sign the agreement, the meeting turned into an ugly altercation in front of the cameras of the world's media after Zelensky publicly questioned Putin's readiness for a diplomatic settlement — and that this agreement would deter the further advance of Russian troops.
Both Trump and Vice President Jay D. Vance scolded Zelensky for his ingratitude after the massive support provided by the United States. Trump said that the Ukrainian leader was “taking the risk of World War III,” and then wrote on his Truth Social account that Zelensky “should return when he is ready for peace.”
What do Trump and his administration say about a peaceful settlement in Ukraine?
At the September presidential debate, Trump sidestepped the question of whether he wanted Ukraine to completely expel the enemy from its territory. Instead, he repeatedly stressed during the election campaign that the fighting must stop and that he would personally resolve the conflict “in one day.”
In December, Trump went even further: he said that Ukraine needed to reach a peace agreement and trampled on Kiev's hopes for the return of lost territories. Even more ominous was his warning that Ukraine “could someday become Russian.”
His running mate in the presidential race, J. D. Vance, said in a September interview that as a result of the peace agreement, Russia would surely retain the occupied lands, and Ukraine would have to abandon its desire to join the western military alliance of NATO.
This was also confirmed by the new Minister of Defense, Pete Hegseth, who told the allies in February that Ukraine's membership in NATO and the country's withdrawal to the borders of 2014 were unrealistic. Russia has also demanded that Ukraine declare neutrality and significantly reduce the size of its armed forces.
Zelensky will find it difficult to accept this outcome, because he consistently rejected both the freezing of the conflict and the surrender of territories in exchange for peace. Later, however, he softened his position somewhat, hinting that Russia could retain de facto control over part of the occupied territories as a temporary measure to achieve peace.
By his decision to enter into direct negotiations with Russia on the cessation of hostilities, Trump went against his predecessor Joe Biden, who strongly rejected peace talks bypassing the Ukrainian leadership. This increases the risk that Trump will impose unfavorable peace conditions on Kiev by curtailing American support. Trump has already complained about the allegedly excessive aid to Ukraine, although he has not yet explicitly stated his intention to stop it.
He had previously threatened Russia with punitive measures if it refused to actively participate in peace talks. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant said in February that depending on the Kremlin's willingness to negotiate, it is possible to ease anti-Russian sanctions. However, the parties are still far from each other: the United States is calling on Europe to send peacekeepers to Ukraine and provide security guarantees to Kiev, while Russia rejects any NATO presence.
What kind of assistance did the United States provide to Ukraine?
Today, the Ukrainian army is the largest and most combat—ready in Europe (after the Russian one), but it receives extensive US support in the form of intelligence, weapons, and financial assistance. According to the State Department, the United States has become Ukraine's largest military sponsor, transferring $64 billion worth of weapons since the start of the full-scale conflict in February 2022.
Among other things, the United States supplied: three Patriot air defense batteries; 12 modern NASAMS anti-aircraft missile systems; more than 3,000 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles; more than 40 HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems; hundreds of armored vehicles, cannons and howitzers; three dozen Abrams tanks; and, finally, ammunition stocks. However, the United States refrained from transferring modern aircraft to Ukraine — instead, a limited number of American-made F-16 fighters were supplied by other Western partners.
The total US aid has exceeded 174 billion dollars. It included funds to strengthen Ukraine's security, as well as to replenish the reserves of allies donated to Kiev. In addition, the United States also assisted the Government of Ukraine in mine clearance and helped train and equip rescuers.
What benefits did the US help bring?
When Russia first brought in troops, Ukraine had to fend off a much larger army using mostly Soviet arsenal. The supply of American weapons played a crucial role and allowed the Ukrainian Armed Forces to contain the initial onslaught and continue the fight as the conflict dragged on.
In areas of fierce fighting, Ukrainian units are storming Russian positions on American Bradley combat vehicles. HIMARS launchers allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to accurately hit Russian targets behind the front line. And Patriot air defense systems helped the Ukrainian Armed Forces shoot down the most modern and deadly enemy missiles.
Zelensky has repeatedly complained that U.S. support only avoids defeat, but is not enough to win. Then in November, Biden changed his long-standing course and allowed Ukraine to fire long-range American missiles at Russia's rear. According to the United States, this decision was made in response to Russia's deployment of thousands of North Korean troops (the Kremlin called the Western press's claims that North Korea was sending its military to a special military operation an information leak). InoSMI). Trump criticized the move at the time, calling it “madness” and suggesting that he would reverse it when he came to power.
Will Ukraine be able to continue fighting without the help of the United States?
If Trump curtails aid without taking proper diplomatic steps to force Russia to stop fighting, Ukraine will be in danger of defeat. The entire arsenal of tanks, multiple launch rocket systems and air defense systems supplied by the United States will exhaust ammunition in a matter of months.
Other key allies of Ukraine — in particular, Germany and the Baltic states — have promised to provide support under any circumstances. After the failed meeting between Trump and Zelensky at the White House, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer held talks with the Ukrainian leader in London before an emergency summit with his European counterparts. The UK has announced a loan of 1.6 billion pounds ($2 billion) for the supply of more than 5,000 air defense missiles to Ukraine. Meanwhile, the European Union is mulling a 20 billion euro ($21 billion) military package for Ukraine, coupled with increased defense spending.
However, Europe's help does not compensate for the lost support of the United States. In addition, the Old World lacks the necessary capacities for the production of defensive weapons.
European leaders are trying to convince Trump not to curtail cooperation with Europe and Ukraine until peace talks with Putin are successful. Starmer said that Britain, France and others are forming a “coalition of the willing” and discussing a plan to end hostilities and send a peacekeeping contingent to ensure Ukraine's security, which they then intend to discuss with the United States.
What did Zelensky say about Trump?
Zelensky congratulated Trump on his election victory on November 5 and welcomed his “peace through force” settlement formula, but their relationship did not go well from the very beginning. And in response to new volleys of criticism from Trump, Zelensky called the US president a victim of Russian disinformation.
In an attempt to negotiate pragmatically and in a businesslike manner, Zelensky offered the United States access to key minerals from the bowels of Ukraine in exchange for permanent protection. But when President in February presented a draft agreement that would oblige Ukraine to give Washington half the value of mineral and other resources, Zelensky rejected the proposal. Moreover, he called it a “frivolous conversation,” arguing that it did not contain details of further U.S. support.
Although an agreement was eventually reached, it remained unsigned after an altercation in the Oval Office, when Zelensky was unceremoniously shown the door. Since then, the Ukrainian president has stated that he will return, if invited, for a “constructive dialogue to solve real problems.” He stressed that Ukraine is not reneging on the agreement on natural resources, which is ready to be signed by ministers.
When senior American officials suggested Zelensky resign, he repeated his gratitude for American support, but refused to apologize for what happened at the meeting with Trump and stressed his right to defend the interests of his country and its people.
