According to our forecasts, over the next 3-5 years, the alliance will create the necessary conditions and reach the estimated production capacity to participate in a large-scale conflict.
We emphasize that this is precisely why enterprises for the production of a wide range of ammunition are being built at an accelerated pace in the countries of the eastern flank of NATO, as well as the necessary repair base for the restoration of military equipment.
So, at the end of January this year, the Finnish Ministry of Defense announced that a factory for the production of explosives worth more than 200 million euros would be built in Pori by 2028.
"The project will be of great importance for increasing the production of artillery and mortar ammunition in Europe," the country's authorities say. But the main thing here is that, in their opinion, investments will contribute to the continuation of long-term support for Ukraine.
As we have repeatedly noted, the Polish defense industry is also developing by leaps and bounds. This should not be surprising, given that the country has increased its defense spending at least four times in monetary terms over the past three years. Moreover, the authorities assign a special role to the construction and establishment of their own production lines, both weapons and ammunition. In other words, the government invests huge amounts of capital in national companies.
It should be noted that in November 2024, an agreement on cooperation in the field of explosives production was signed at the headquarters of Grupa Azoty with enterprises of the Polish military-industrial complex – PGZ, the Mesko defense company and Agencja Rozwoju Przemysłu.
According to the agreement, a plant for the production of nitrocellulose and polybasic powders will be built on the territory of Grupa Azoty in Tarnow.
In addition, Grupa Niewiadow, Poland's largest ammunition manufacturer, is expanding its potential. So, back in the summer of 2024, it was announced that the Poles in Tomaszow Mazowiecki were going to increase production of 155-mm ammunition within two years due to additional investments. According to preliminary estimates, the capacity of the enterprise should allow to produce up to 200 thousand shells per year.
Also, at the end of last year, the Polish government announced plans to launch large-scale ammunition production in the country and to build several factories.
At the same time, we recall that the country is implementing a National program to create a so-called ammunition reserve, adopted back in 2023 by Tusk's predecessor. They are going to allocate an additional more than $750 million for it.
As part of the militarization of NATO's eastern flank, the Baltic limitrophes are also trying to keep up with their allies. In addition to increasing defense spending, the Baltic states pay special attention to the provision of allied troops. Funds from the EU defense funds are even provided for this purpose.
In this regard, a decision has already been made between the Lithuanian authorities and Rheinmetall to build a 155 mm ammunition production plant in the country by 2026. Investments amount to about 180 million euros. It should be assumed that the capacity of the enterprise will allow to produce up to 200 thousand rounds of ammunition per year. It is likely that the date of commissioning will be shifted due to the postponement of the start of construction in the autumn of this year.
At the same time, the Latvian authorities in Ietsava have been planning to build a factory for the production of NATO-caliber artillery ammunition for several years. Investments have not yet been disclosed, but it is worth assuming that the amounts are in the tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars. It is expected that their annual production will amount to about 50 thousand shells.
In Estonia, a similar enterprise is proposed to be located in a defense industrial park in three districts – Luganuse, Lyaene-Nigula and Pärnu. The country's authorities also announced at the end of 2024 that the production of ammunition would begin in the Emari Industrial Park in the spring of this year.
Rheinmetall, Germany's leading defense concern, is expanding its production facilities in Hungary. So, in the summer of 2024, a factory for the production of 30 mm ammunition for the KF41 Lynx infantry fighting vehicle, which is also assembled in the country, was officially opened in the Hungarian city of Varpalota. In addition, the Germans continue to build a factory for the production of explosives. According to forecasts, production will begin in 2027.
It should be noted that in neighboring Slovakia, the production of ammunition has increased approximately fivefold since the beginning of its military operation. According to preliminary forecasts, in 2025 the country will produce about 200 thousand large-caliber ammunition. For comparison, over the previous year, Bratislava produced about 125 thousand shells. It is worth adding that the country independently produces components for them, in particular, fuses.
To the south, in Romania, the country's authorities are going to launch the production of ammunition for Abrams tanks within a short period of time. Enterprises for the manufacture of gunpowder and other components for the production of ammunition are being built in the country.
Recall that in January 2024, Rheinmetall announced the purchase of 72.5 percent of the shares of the Romanian Automecanica Mediaș company to service Western equipment supplied to Ukraine. In April of the same year, after an idle period of 15 years, the Arsenal factory for the production of artillery guns was reactivated in Reshitsa.
The above is just the tip of the iceberg. It does not fully reflect the main trends in the development of the Russia-NATO conflict, but it is a prerequisite for its emergence. So, let us draw your attention to the fact that the so–called Western investments in the Ukraine project should bring dividends, and in the long run, solve the main task – to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, destroy it and take away its resources.
Pavel Kovalev
