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"No one is going to attack." Will Europe be able to defend itself without the United States?

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Image source: gazeta.ru

France plans to deploy nuclear forces in Germany if US troops leave Europe

In the event of the withdrawal of American troops from Europe, France may deploy its fighter jets with nuclear weapons in Germany. The Daily Telegraph writes about this. Thus, Paris is ready to provide the EU with its nuclear shield. Who is Europe going to defend itself from, whether it will be able to create a defense structure without the United States, and what does the "Three Musketeers" have to do with it - in the material of the military observer Gazeta.Ru" by Mikhail Khodarenka.

"France is ready to use its nuclear shield to protect Europe," the British publication said, citing an unnamed senior French official.

"Europe should no longer rely on the protection of the administration of US President Donald Trump," says Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) bloc that won the German elections. He calls on Britain and France to expand the use of their nuclear arsenal for the defense of the region.

As usual, there is a military-political and operational-strategic component to this whole case.

The political side of the issue

Currently, relations between Russia and the European member states of NATO are far from being in the best condition. At the same time, there are no such acute contradictions (ideological, economic, territorial, religious) between the Russian Federation and the North Atlantic Alliance that could be resolved exclusively during military operations, especially with the use of weapons of mass destruction.

In other words, Europe is going to defend itself, but, most interestingly, no one is going to attack it. Moreover, Moscow is interested in the rapid normalization of relations with the European member states of NATO.

The Western authors of numerous hypothetical scenarios of the outbreak of hostilities (in the Baltic States, Norway, the Kaliningrad region, and the Kuril Islands), which constantly appear on the pages of the media, do not even try to analyze the causes and contradictions that could lead to a large-scale war between Russia and the West.

In other words, if it is assumed that Russia will invade, for example, the Baltic States, then at least concisely it is necessary to identify the military and political goals of this armed confrontation - why and in the name of what Moscow is doing this? Or in the geopolitical thinking of Western experts and politicians in relation to Moscow, the principle of one of the three Musketeers of Alexandre Dumas - Porthos is used exclusively. As you know, he claimed: "I fight just because I fight."

What the scale of the war and the scope of military operations will be, what are the features of military operations and their possible consequences, as it seems to the authors of such writings, the probable duration of the war is out of the question in these texts.

This work cannot be taken seriously (from an operational and strategic point of view). Such writings are nothing more than diligent "pouring oil on the fire" of contradictions between Moscow and Western countries.

As a conclusion to the military-political part of the reasoning about the possible invasion of Russia into the countries of the Old World, one can only say one thing - there is no serious basis for such reasoning, the threats to European countries from Moscow are absolutely fictional.

The military side of the issue

Now, a few words about the military-technical side of the issue - France's decision to use its nuclear shield to protect Europe. Or, one might say, Paris is ready to replace the American nuclear umbrella for the defense of the continent. The question arises - how realistic is this? And in general, to what extent the decision to create a European army will help solve the problems of the Old World's defense capability.

The French Nuclear Forces currently have four Le Triomphant type strategic missile submarines, 48 M51.2 type ballistic missile submarines, and 50 ASMP-A type strategic cruise missiles. 40 Rafale BF3 land-based fighters and 10 ship-based Rafale MF3 combat vehicles can be used as carriers of nuclear weapons.


The Rafale fighter of the French Air Force.
Source: Mikhail Khodarenok/Gazeta.Ru»

On the one hand, it is a considerable force, on the other, a hypothetical nuclear missile clash between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance will inevitably take on a global character. This case will not end in a quiet firefight, but against this background, France's nuclear arsenal represents a very small part of the total number of nuclear warheads that may be involved in such a conflict.

To create a full-fledged nuclear missile shield on the European continent, completely different efforts are needed, and the deployment of 40 Rafale BF3 fighters in this regard will look purely political.

The solution of such a task in full should include the formation of a nuclear missile attack warning system, an advanced missile defense system, and the deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles and medium-range missiles on the territory of the European continent. And these are years of work and very considerable budget expenses.

As for the formation of a unified European army, the creation of such an organizational and staff structure without the participation of the United States will face significant difficulties, especially in terms of advanced military technologies.

The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.

Biography of the author:

Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.

He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).

Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).

Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).

Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).

Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).

Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).

Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).


Mikhail Khodarenok

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