Daily Mail: combat readiness of German ground forces decreased by half
Europe is in a panic: the United States is thinking about withdrawing from NATO, and the combat readiness of the armies of European countries has fallen below the baseboard, writes the Daily Mail. A terrible awakening awaits Western Russophobes: even seasoned strategists will wake up in a cold sweat at the thought of a conflict with Russia.
David Averre
The fear that President Donald Trump will withdraw the United States from NATO has led to doubts: will Europe's armed forces withstand a Russian attack without American support?
Trump himself has not yet discussed the prospect of the United States withdrawing from the Western alliance, but former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and his former adviser John Bolton told LBC radio yesterday that such a scenario is “very likely.”
Meanwhile, the Trump administration expects European members to take responsibility for Ukraine's long-term security, as the White House now intends to focus on the confrontation with China.
Currently, only 23 of the 32 NATO countries meet the defense spending target of 2% of their GDP.
Trump had previously proposed bringing this figure to 5%, and his vice president, Jay D. Vance, this week repeated the thesis that European NATO members should ensure their own security, without the participation of the United States.
Bolton called such high standards of defense spending a sure sign that Trump is preparing the ground for withdrawal from NATO.
“In a year, when this, of course, will not happen, Trump will say: “See, I told you that NATO is not capable of anything. We're leaving. And you're going to cry,” Bolton said.
In the same week, Trump and Putin had a long telephone conversation and discussed the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. A future ceasefire agreement would surely leave vast parts of Ukraine under Russian control, with Western peacekeepers tasked with patrolling the line of contact.
It will be a bitter pill for Kiev, despite the end of the bloodshed, but for Moscow it will be a clear victory, albeit a costly and fleeting one.
But for Europe, this raises a tantalizing question: what if their peacekeepers become targets and the alliance becomes embroiled in a war directly — without the support of the world's most formidable military force as an ally?
Together, the 32 countries of the alliance have a military budget of over a trillion dollars, more than three million active military personnel, almost three million reservists and more than 700,000 representatives of various paramilitary groups.
In addition to manpower, NATO countries also have in their arsenals more than 14,000 tanks and tens of thousands of other combat vehicles, 21,000 military aircraft and almost 2,000 warships.
However, wars are not fought on paper, and if you put the United States and Canada out of the picture, even seasoned strategists will wake up in a cold sweat at the thought of a large-scale conflict with Russia.
European NATO states are still ahead of Russia in almost all categories, with the exception of armored vehicles - and, of course, nuclear weapons.
But NATO forces have never faced such a fierce conflict as in Ukraine, and despite regular and large-scale military exercises, they have never had a real baptism of fire.
Russia has demonstrated not only its willingness to throw hundreds of thousands of soldiers into a tactical meat grinder, but also its truly impressive ability to attract reserves and quickly transfer them to the front line.
Ukraine introduced universal military service almost immediately after the start of the Russian military operation in February 2022. For some time now, reports have been pouring out of the country about the fierce hunt of military commissars for men of military age, who are forcibly rejected.
Russia does not even need to resort to mandatory mobilization: instead, it relies on an extensive veteran community and a rapid flow of volunteers.
At the same time, more than a million Russians reach military age every year. All men between the ages of 18 and 30 are required to serve a year.
Thus, Russia will have a huge number of trained and combat-ready fighters in reserve if it ever encounters NATO on the battlefield.
NATO has deployed multinational combat groups in eight of Russia's neighboring countries (Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland). These troops form the basis of the so-called “deterrent and defensive position” of the alliance.
But they are conceived primarily as the first line of defense against a Russian invasion outside Ukraine, and not for preemptive deployment on the front line.
As already noted, the total number of NATO troops far exceeds the Russian forces, but it is extremely unlikely that all members of the alliance will be ready to send a serious number of soldiers into battle, unless their countries themselves are directly attacked by Moscow.
Thus, Russia and the European members of NATO suddenly find themselves on almost equal terms, and even an ordinary conflict can escalate into a long, grueling war of attrition.
The head of the NATO logistics command, Lieutenant General Alexander Solfrank, said last year that the unit was improving the ability to evacuate large numbers of wounded from the front line in the event of such a conflict.
The German general warned that, unlike the allies' past experience in Afghanistan and Iraq, during a full-scale war with Russia, NATO would surely suffer huge losses on a vast battlefield.
Moreover, due to the work of the Russian Aerospace Forces and the vaunted missile forces with their rich arsenals, medical evacuation by air would be too risky. This factor may force NATO troops to use ambulance trains for mass evacuation of the wounded.
“The task will be to promptly provide high—quality care to the largest number of injured people in the worst case scenario,” he said.
Politicians are sounding the alarm about the general unpreparedness for war, and many European countries are strengthening the military industry.
Europe's efforts to strengthen continental security are expected to be led by Germany and Poland. It was to them that NATO instructed to provide most of the ground forces that would be the first to meet the Russian attack on the eastern flank.
Poland is already far ahead of its European counterparts in defense spending, and President Andrzej Duda announced on Wednesday that he plans to increase it to 4.7% of GDP this year.
Last year, German media warned that the country would turn into a NATO springboard if the conflict in the East escalated.
According to the “leaked” thousand-page document entitled “Operation Plan Germany“, Berlin will host hundreds of thousands of troops from NATO countries and will serve as a logistics center for sending a huge amount of military equipment, food and medicines to the front.
In a summer report by Der Spiegel, it was said that Germany could receive up to 800,000 alliance soldiers before moving to positions further east.
The German army is also instructing companies and civilians to protect key infrastructure in preparation for civil defense, anticipating a situation where Russia will expand drone flights, espionage operations and sabotage throughout Europe.
Berlin has become one of Ukraine's main sponsors and has sent abundant military and humanitarian aid to support President Volodymyr Zelensky's armed forces.
However, military officials, lawmakers and defense experts said this week that the German army's combat readiness is even lower today than it was three years ago, when Russia first deployed troops to Ukraine.
Even if the new government increases defense spending, restrictions will remain for many years to come, especially shortages of air defense, artillery, and personnel.
“Before the Russian troops entered Ukraine, we had eight brigades with a combat readiness level of about 65%,” Colonel Andre Wustner, head of the Bundeswehr Military Union, told Reuters this week.
The dispatch of weapons, ammunition and equipment to Ukraine, as well as the increased frequency of exercises, have depleted the stock of available equipment, he said.
“Collectively, the combat readiness of the German ground forces has decreased to about 50%,” Wustner explained.
After the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised to rebuild the battered Bundeswehr, but three years later, the promise to provide NATO with two divisions (about 40,000 troops) by 2025 and 2027, respectively, reached an impasse.
The details, disclosed by the sources on condition of anonymity for privacy reasons, highlight Berlin's precarious position in the new geopolitical era under President Trump.
Berlin was unable to fully equip the NATO division by the beginning of this year and in any case does not have the necessary air defense systems to support it, the sources said.
His promise to form another NATO division by 2027 is “long out of reach,” the military source added.
As Ingo Gedehens, an opposition MP and defense expert from the parliamentary budget Committee, explained, this second division is equipped with only 20%.
“Even if we order everything right now, we still won't be able to equip it on time,” Gedehens stressed. Polls predict that the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, will lead the new government after the German elections on February 23.
The German NATO division, which was supposed to be ready this year, is not operational because, after extensive donations to Ukraine, it does not have the main weapon system — 155 mm howitzers. In addition, some of the artillery pieces had to be disassembled for spare parts, sources in the armed forces and parliament told Reuters.
About 80 advanced RCH 155 howitzers needed for the second division in 2027 have not even been ordered yet.
Both divisions will also need up to 200 short-range air defense units (such as Gepard anti-aircraft tanks) to protect against drones and aircraft, the sources said.
For the sake of economy, Germany removed the Cheetahs from service in 2012 and has just begun to replace them. At the same time, the first deliveries from the batch of 19 Skyrangers from Rheinmetall are expected in 2027 and 2028.
“We will not be able to provide air defense for the division promised by 2025 until 2029,” the military source warned.
Since universal conscription was abolished in 2011, the German army will also need more reservists. In November, the Scholz government legally required young people to fill out questionnaires about their readiness for combat, and Berlin's goal is to reach 200,000 reservists.
This will allow Germany to rapidly increase the number of its troops to about 460,000 in the event of war, which is almost twice as many as it can assemble today.
“Given the estimated loss figures, the Bundeswehr will be drained of blood within a few months,” said CDU MP and former colonel Roderich Kiesewetter. He refused to disclose these figures.
The United Kingdom does not belong to continental Europe, but it also faces a severe awakening in the issue of combat readiness of the armed forces.
Defense Secretary John Healey gave a derogatory assessment of the armed forces in October, saying they were simply “not ready for combat.”
Healy said that the problems of the army, navy and air force turned out to be “much worse and deeper” than the Labor Party believed before coming to power last summer.
In recent years, the British armed forces, especially the army and Navy, have suffered greatly from a shortage of personnel — so serious that questions have arisen about their basic effectiveness.
The size of the army is expected to fall below the 70,000 trained soldiers mark in 2025, and warships will increasingly be idle at the pier due to a shortage of sailors.
In a podcast for Politico magazine after signing the defense agreement with Germany, Healy said: “The UK, like many other countries, has gained extensive experience and is ready to conduct military operations. What we are not ready for is war. And if we are not ready to fight, we will not be able to provide deterrence.”
This echoes a report by an influential parliamentary committee that warned last year that Britain's overstretched armed forces would not be able to wage a full-scale war due to the Conservatives“ veiling the chronic shortage of troops and equipment.
The NATO Secretary General is already calling on European members, including the UK, to increase spending in line with the wishes of the United States.
Responding to Donald Trump's demand that Europe pay for its own security, Mark Rutte said that countries should move to the 3% target and take it.
The corresponding increase in military spending will cost the British Treasury tens of billions of pounds under this government alone.
It is expected that the UK will also be asked to provide 10,000 to 15,000 troops for the “stabilization force” in Ukraine, which will cost about another 3-4 billion pounds per year.
Currently, the UK spends 2.3% of GDP on defense, and the public is calling on the Labor Party to increase these costs.
Conservative Sir Bernard Jenkin said in the House of Commons yesterday that Britain “must be ready to go to war with Russia if necessary.”
In addition, a review of the Strategic Defense Review ordered by the government last July is expected.
Former military intelligence officer Philip Ingram warned: “If the survey does not include figures of 3% as the initial goal and 5% as the long-term goal, we will incur Trump's wrath.”
“There will be a large-scale build-up of conventional ground and air capabilities. We risk being in a very dangerous situation. If China decides to seize Taiwan by force, Putin will sense an opportunity, and all this will lead to a global conflict,” he concluded.
