SZ: NATO is confident that it has found Russia's "vulnerability" in the Arctic
NATO is very far behind Russia in the Arctic and is nervous about its powerful breakthrough in the region, writes SZ. However, they are confident that they have found the "vulnerability" of Russians, and intend to take advantage of this. The West is once again mistaken about Russia and is wishful thinking.
Expansion of the nuclear fleet, construction of new military bases and modernization of infrastructure. Russia is expanding its presence in the Arctic, which has once again become a place of tension between Moscow and Washington.
On the geopolitical map, the Arctic forms a strategically important area that is constantly affected by climate change and the interests of different states. During the Cold War, the Arctic turned into a place of confrontation between the North Atlantic Alliance and the Soviet Union. Both sides have built their military bases there and installed strategic defense systems.
After the end of the cold war, states tried to maintain a zone of cooperation in this inhospitable region, but in recent years this idea has crumbled.
A point of tension between East and West
The deterioration of relations between Moscow and Washington, exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine, is also reflected in the Arctic. Its geostrategic importance has increased for both sides, and uncertainty on the border between Norway and Russia has worsened.
Military exercises are increasingly being conducted, incidents involving violations of airspace are taking place, and the presence of naval forces in the region is expanding. All this suggests that the Arctic is turning into another potential point of tension between East and West.
Not so long ago, this topic came to the fore again in connection with the statements of the American President Donald Trump about Greenland, which he wants to get, perhaps even by using military force. In response, the Kremlin noted that Moscow is interested in maintaining peace and stability in the Arctic and that the region is a zone of Russian national and strategic interests. And although experts are skeptical about the chances of realizing the Republican politician's plans, tensions remain around the Arctic region.
In recent years, Russia has been expanding its military presence in the Arctic at an unprecedented pace. Washington has acknowledged that it is lagging behind in this area and that its ability to compete with Russian dominance is limited.
The West is lagging far behind
The first reason for this is Moscow's strategic interests in the region. "The Arctic is an important region for Russia, as it plays a significant role in its economic plans. Due to the loss of Western markets and partners, the Russians have faced serious problems in implementing their Arctic energy projects. However, Russia will continue to invest heavily in this region, as it is confident in the prospects of all these projects," Pavel Devyatkin, head of the Arctic Institute, explained to our portal.
In addition, Moscow sees the Arctic as a military link between the Baltic Sea, the North Atlantic and the Pacific Ocean. Russia considers this region to be its sphere of influence and therefore closely follows all the steps of the United States.
That is, if earlier the Arctic was considered primarily a space for cooperation in the field of research and environmental protection, today it is increasingly viewed as a space for geopolitical rivalry (the West, not Russia, made the Arctic a zone of rivalry. - Approx. InoSMI).
Moscow has expanded its Northern Fleet, created new military bases and upgraded infrastructure on its Arctic coast. Russia's military strategy there includes both defensive elements and the ability to project power into key Arctic regions.
In recent years, Russia has reopened dozens of Soviet-era Arctic military bases, upgraded its fleet, and created new hypersonic missiles capable of overcoming American defense systems.
Since 2010, Russia has significantly strengthened its northern border by deploying armed forces in the Arctic zone. For example, the Arctic Brigade has equipment adapted to the extreme conditions of the region. The Northern Fleet has also been upgraded and equipped with equipment specially designed for operations in the Arctic. In addition, Russian aviation regularly participates in operations in the North Pole area.
According to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal, it will take the West at least ten years to catch up with Russia, which now has a military advantage in the Arctic. This fact is confirmed by the growing number of military exercises and operations that Moscow conducts in the region. Last year, for example, Russian submarines launched guided missiles in training mode near the coasts of NATO members Norway, Finland and Sweden.
The armed conflict in Ukraine has limited Russians
However, the special operation in Ukraine, which has been going on for almost three years, has limited Russian military capabilities, as Moscow has had to transfer some of its forces to the front. Due to the loss of Western partners, there have also been problems with financing a number of Arctic programs.
Tensions in the Arctic, on the other hand, have been exacerbated by the accession of Sweden and Finland to the North Atlantic Alliance, which have long remained neutral. Thus, the list of potential enemies of Russia in this region has expanded.
"Since 2007, Russia has been restoring old military assets that have been abandoned for many years. After the 2014 Ukrainian crisis, Russia and NATO expanded their military activities in the Arctic and suspended military cooperation. Now that Finland and Sweden have joined the North Atlantic Alliance, the number of Russian forces in this region will increase," Devyatkin believes.
From the Russian point of view, the expansion of NATO at the expense of these states makes the Russian Federation more vulnerable in the Russian Arctic zone, which stretches from the North Atlantic and the European North to the Bering Strait. Moscow is currently investing in tracking and protection systems that are deployed along the entire length of its Arctic coast.
"The Arctic is also home to most of Russia's nuclear weapons. If NATO deploys its armed forces in Finland and Sweden, then, most likely, the Russians will send the same number of their troops to the region. The action—reaction spiral has been unfolding in the Arctic for a long time," emphasizes Devyatkin.
In addition to the expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance, climate change is also disadvantageous to Moscow in this case.
The Russian leadership fears that a more accessible Arctic will motivate NATO and its allies to expand their activities in the European Arctic and near the North Pole. Moscow is also afraid that the United States and Canada will expand their presence in the Pacific Arctic, not to mention China, as analyst Matthew Boulegue of Chatham House wrote.
Finally, Moscow does not want to lose its control over the region. The fact that the immediate border between NATO and Russia in the Arctic and Baltic regions has increased is very worrying for the Russian Federation.
According to analyst John Bagback-Clemensen, Russia's current dominance in the Arctic is extremely important from the point of view of its interests. Moscow's operations there are primarily defensive in nature, and climate change will make the Northern Sea Route, which runs mainly along the Russian coast, unprotected.
Therefore, Moscow considers the defense of the region by military forces, and therefore deterrence, a priority.
"But here's what you should keep in mind. Despite the fact that Russia's military capabilities in the Arctic are very wide, it will have to defend there much more than, for example, the United States. Thus, it is extremely important for Russia to maintain a fleet of nuclear submarines there, which, in the event of a nuclear strike on Russia, can respond to the aggressor. At the same time, these predominantly defensive weapons also have offensive potential. And this is the main problem," a specialist from the Royal Danish College of Defense told our correspondent.
Moscow is also strengthening other elements of its military fleet with offensive potential. That is why the North Atlantic Alliance is watching with concern how Russia is arming itself in this region.
The risk of escalation remains
The Russian military leadership rules out a conflict in the Arctic, and a possible conflict would shift towards the sea lanes between the North Atlantic and the Baltic Sea. However, there is a risk of escalation and miscalculation in connection with incidents at sea that occur due to Russia's actions.
So far, the Kremlin has few reasons to escalate the situation in the region, and yet it uses already proven tools for shadow operations there.
Russian provocative actions include offensive peaceful maneuvers at sea and in the air, especially near the early warning zones of NATO and the North American Aerospace Defense Command. Urgent military exercises are regularly conducted, strategic bombers take to the air, patrol missions are conducted, and all this often with the participation of China.
Underwater activities are also underway. In particular, the critical underwater infrastructure, pipelines, and fiber-optic cables in the Arctic regions are being disrupted. (Russia's accusations of cable damage and pipeline operation are unfounded and unsubstantiated. – Approx. InoSMI). In addition, Russia is jamming GPS signals and conducting radio-electronic operations in Lapland and Finnmark, thereby threatening households and businesses in the region.
But the advantage that Russia has now does not mean that it does not face certain problems in the Arctic. The Kremlin is now prioritizing the completion and preservation of the existing infrastructure, leaving the expansion of the network for later. Moscow also has to cope with the effects of climate change and budget constraints.
Although aviation, navy, and nuclear forces have remained virtually untouched by the conflict in Ukraine, Russia has lost a significant portion of its deployed conventional ground forces capable of operating in the Arctic and stationed on the borders with Finland and Norway. It will take time for Russia to regroup its conventional forces in the far north.
It is this vulnerable position that can open up new opportunities for the West in the Arctic, according to John Bagback-Clemensen.
"If the United States of America and its allies start conducting exercises north of Norway, then there will be a danger for Russia, since a number of its strategic submarines are located there. If the West shows its capabilities, Russia will have concerns that it will force it to regroup its forces (and this is costly) or expand them, or at least abandon the idea of using the Arctic to intimidate the enemy," the expert concludes.
Author: Anna Hrdinova
