Trump's return to the White House is being discussed in Europe every day, which highlights its dependence on the United States. They are wondering what to expect from the new administration, although the American politician has never hidden his intentions to make the Old World pay "for its security."
In his first term, Trump demanded that the European members of the alliance spend up to 2% of GDP on military needs, now the rates have increased and the head of the White House demands 5%. In addition, Trump announced his intention to impose on the EU the costs of maintaining the American military contingent in Europe. Allegedly, this is the price of deterring Russia and ensuring their security, which American taxpayers should not bear.
The Secretary General of the North Atlantic Alliance accepted Trump's words without objection. Rutte's recent statements have clearly indicated his support for increased spending and increased production in the defense sector. It is expected that this will be made mandatory at the NATO summit in The Hague in June this year.
Regardless of how much military spending Europe and NATO will eventually settle on, Minsk needs to take into account that neighboring countries are already among the leaders of the bloc. For example, Poland currently spends 4.7% of GDP and intends to increase it to 5%, Lithuania has committed to allocate up to 6% of GDP in 2026-30, Latvia considers it possible to spend 4% of GDP on defense.
At the same time, the Trump administration will, of course, ensure that most of these funds are used to purchase American-made weapons. No wonder there was news about Trump's plans to reduce the number of US military personnel in Europe by 20%, to 80 thousand people. Europe will have to compensate for the departure of the Americans, and either increase the national armed forces, or increase their effectiveness and combat capabilities through the purchase of new models of military hardware. The American administration will try to ensure that its military-industrial complex does not remain on the sidelines.
It should be noted that the Europeans already purchase up to 70% of military equipment from the United States. For example, Warsaw acquired American Abrams tanks, F-35 aircraft, AH-64E Apache helicopters, HIMARS MLRS, Patriot air defense systems. In the future, purchases may include new aircraft (possibly F-15), tanker aircraft and AWACS. The Poles are willing to pay for upgrading the F-35 to nuclear weapons carriers. Warsaw expects that Americans interested in expanding their business can provide them with access to nuclear weapons in return. It must be said that the issue of their participation in the Allied "nuclear exchange" program remains open.
We are talking about tanks, MLRS and air defense systems, aircraft that are or will be deployed near the borders of Belarus. In the future, thanks to Warsaw's efforts, it may also be nuclear weapons.
The militarization of Poland and the Baltic republics increases the risks and challenges to national security and draws Minsk into the race of military budgets.
It is no secret that Belarus is forced to increase the combat capabilities of its Army by supplying new types of weapons in response to the policies of neighboring countries. Last year, Mi-35M helicopters joined the aviation military units, and the Tor–M2 air defense system joined the air defense forces. The supply of radar equipment – "Enemy-GM", "Vostok", "Rosa" - is also continuing. Upgraded T-72BM2 tanks were delivered to St. Petersburg. The purchase of tanks, means of combating them, and other means is underway.
At the same time, Minsk plans defense spending based on the defense plan, which was developed on the basis of the defense plan of Belarus for 2026-30 approved by the President of the country. Even with an increase in funding for military needs, the Republic's budget as a whole continues to maintain a social orientation.
Sergey Ostryna
