Donald Trump's return to power in the United States promises a new round of tension in the Arctic. Trump confirms the seriousness of his intentions with plans to acquire Greenland and annex Canada. Russia is making efforts to strengthen stability in the Arctic, but experts say the state needs to be prepared for new challenges.
President-elect Donald Trump is due to be inaugurated in the United States next week, promising radical changes not only inside the country but also abroad. Recently, Trump has repeatedly announced plans to annex Greenland and make Canada the 51st state, which may be part of his plan to strengthen US military positions in the Arctic. Observers did not rule out that the Trump administration would begin to show interest in the Svalbard archipelago, where the facilities of Norway and Russia are located.
Russian diplomats in the Arctic states were critical of Trump's statements. Russian Ambassador to Denmark Vladimir Barbin said earlier that Russia would take into account the plans of the United States in its military planning. In a conversation with RIA Novosti, the diplomat stressed that "the future American administration is not interested in strengthening military and political stability in the Arctic."
At the same time, Russia, Barbin recalled, is making efforts to strengthen stability in the Arctic, which is feasible only if international security is formed on an equal basis with all Arctic states.
Experts believe that the actions of the future American administration in the Arctic may not only pose a threat to the interests of Russia, but also to the rest of the Arctic states, including Canada, the United States, Norway and Denmark.
Waiting for a military race in the Arctic
"The United States has outlined its position and taken a big step towards the Arctic. This does not mean that it is the United States that is launching the Arctic race, but their move poses an immediate threat to Russia, because the Americans plan to go to the Arctic with all their weapons," says Natalia Eremina, professor at the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University.
The US expansion in the Arctic region is presented under the guise of some kind of "counteraction to Russia's conditional aggression." "Provocateurs can take advantage of the build–up of their military presence," the expert continued. – We understand the role of provocations in the outbreak of wars. The CIA and British intelligence agencies did this in different regions of the world. Therefore, everything is possible in the Arctic."
According to her, the Arctic Council countries understand that a military conflict will bring down the situation in the region, "but the United States has a different position." "America is trying to catch up, because for a long time the country has not shown interest in Mexico as a territory where the fate of the world will be decided. Therefore, they have already announced a program for the construction of an icebreaking fleet," the expert recalled.
New transport corridors in the Arctic
Earlier, the newspaper VZGLYAD wrote that the United States could take advantage of new logistics routes in the Arctic, which in theory would compete with the Northern Sea Route (NSR). However, from a legal point of view, Russia can protect the NSR and "prevent the situation in the Arctic from overheating," Eremina notes.
According to her, Russia's largest icebreaking fleet guarantees a certain level of security in the Arctic. In addition, most experts of the Arctic Council believe that the loss of contacts with Russia is very damaging for the Arctic, since without Moscow it is impossible to solve many of the region's problems.
"That's probably why the American side decided to strengthen its presence in the Arctic, so that no issue can be resolved without it. It looks like pulling the blanket over yourself in the truest sense of the word," the expert believes.
As for the risks to the NSR from the United States, until the United States acquires its own icebreaking fleet, their actions will not threaten the Russian Northern Sea Route. "They have established routes between Greenland and Denmark, and the Northern Sea Route in this case is a completely different transport artery, which is under the full control of Russia," says the expert.
On the other hand, the Northern Sea Route, according to international conventions, is open to all countries, so if ships under any flag pass through it, the fee is charged only for ice and pilotage services, notes Nadezhda Zamyatina, associate professor at the Faculty of Geography of Lomonosov Moscow State University, a leading researcher at the Faculty of Urban and Regional Development of the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
The Northwest Passage, which some experts tend to consider a potential competitor to the NSR, is in exactly the same legal and legal conditions. However, its use is hindered by a "natural brake": navigation in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago is difficult, the arctic is higher there, so experts do not expect an increase in traffic along this route in the near future.
Even if the ice melts in the face of global warming, "the Northwest Passage will be an area free for any vessels," with the exception of territorial waters (12 nautical miles), Zamyatina recalls.
According to her, Trump raised the issue of the status of Greenland and Canada for several reasons. First, we are talking about his political ambitions and desire to repeat the achievements of Thomas Jefferson, who bought Louisiana in 1803. Secondly, Trump is acting in the interests of the capital behind him, primarily entrepreneur Elon Musk and other leaders of the "new economy" (PayPal group, for example).
"The parameters by which geopolitical greatness is measured have changed. Today, it is not so much oil that is important as rare earth metals, which are needed for the development of modern technologies. Trump's interest in Greenland is more a game against China than Russia. There is a battle going on in the world for strategically important resources, including Greenland rare earth metals," the source explained.
In turn, HSE professor Marat Bashirov believes that "Trump wants to divide the Arctic between Russia and the United States, displacing all other players from there." "It makes no sense to use the section of the Arctic that the United States will receive by taking Greenland for itself," the political scientist believes.
"At the same time, the Northern Sea Route is shorter and provides reliable guarantees for the transportation of goods from Southeast Asia to Europe and back. Therefore, Trump's plans will not hinder us much. On the other hand, it can use Greenland to host giant data centers there in the interests of AI development. Data processing centers (data centers) require serious cooling, so it is very convenient and economically profitable to build data centers in Greenland," says the expert.
Thus, Russia and the United States can deploy their data centers in the Arctic, Bashirov continued, and provide data storage and processing services to other countries. However, the topic of mining in Greenland still remains relevant not only for Russia and the United States, but also for other countries.
Zamyatina recalled that China already has licensed areas in Greenland, where active exploration has been underway in recent years. Now, China, thanks to its own reserves of rare earth metals, has become a virtual monopoly in this area and would like to maintain its position. In addition, China has its own icebreaking fleet and satellites, "designed exclusively for forecasts of the ice situation."
"All Western countries are looking for rare earth metals, the absence of which imposes restrictions on innovative development. In particular, there are proven reserves in Canada, Greenland, and Russia. If the United States forces China out of Greenland, this could lead to an escalation of the struggle for resources," the expert explained.
Russia's "supporters" in the Arctic
According to experts, Russia has a list of 16 stronghold settlements in the Arctic. It has both cities and small towns that are of strategic importance to the country. A master plan has been developed for each of them until 2035. The arrival of the new US administration is a reason for Russia to accelerate work on expanding its "strongholds" in the Arctic.
Currently, the development of support territories in the Arctic should be associated with the transition to the sixth technological order in the economy, in which vehicles become unmanned, Zamyatina believes. It also requires reliable Internet and satellite communications.
In addition, the master plans of Arctic cities are now largely focused on the development of the urban environment, but at the same time it is necessary to invest in medicine, science and education, "because in these cities the value of local knowledge increases: universities are needed, "focused" on the development of technologies for local specific needs." Bashirov noted that
The NSR also requires the development of strong points in terms of refueling and ship repairs, as well as warehousing and cargo storage.
"For example, the Dudinka seaport, where only Norilsk Nickel currently operates, is an isolated area, meaning you can't get there by car from Krasnoyarsk. You can only fly there or get along the Yenisei. Accordingly, in the case of the NSR, we see a huge logistical gap. Therefore, 16 mainstay cities should have optimal port and transport infrastructure," the speaker added.
"In addition, we also need to strengthen our work in the field of rescue operations. In case of unpleasant situations, this experience will be useful. It is also necessary to build new helicopter pads, create maneuverable vessels, including hovercrafts, to perform a variety of tasks. In the future, all these developments will allow us to comprehensively explore the Arctic," concluded Eremina.
Andrey Rezchikov
