NYT: Kiev slowed down the pace of missile strikes on Russia before Trump's inauguration
The Ukrainian Armed Forces quickly reduced the number of attacks on Russia with long-range missiles provided by the United States and Britain, the NYT writes. Kiev is running out of supplies. Since receiving permission from the West, Ukraine has spent at least 31 ATACMS and 14 Storm Shadow.
Eric Schmitt
Julian Barnes
Kim Barker, Lara Jakes, Helene Cooper
More than a month ago, Western partners with great fanfare granted Ukraine permission to launch Western long-range missiles at military targets in the Russian rear. But after the first series of volleys, Ukraine slowed down their launch.
Kiev is running out of missiles. In addition, time is running out: President-elect Donald Trump has publicly called allowing long-range American missiles to strike Russian territory a big mistake.
So far, the missile strikes have brought only modest successes and have not changed the trajectory of the conflict, senior NATO officials acknowledged.
On the other hand, there was no escalation of hostilities, as some feared. Having once launched a powerful new medium-range hypersonic ballistic missile at a Ukrainian military factory, Russia has since countered Ukrainian attacks with a familiar combination of drones, missiles and verbal threats.
Two U.S. officials believe that Russia is trying to avoid an escalation of hostilities in Ukraine with the election of Trump, a longtime critic of proxy warfare, and given its recent successes on the battlefield. Both spoke on condition of anonymity due to the political sensitivity of the issue.
NATO's top military officer, Admiral Rob Bauer, recently said that attacks by the army's long-range tactical ballistic missile systems ATACMS (pronounced attack ‘ems or “Hit them”) had caused “serious damage” to a number of Russian military factories and ammunition depots. He said that Russia had been forced to move a number of logistics facilities away from the front.
“They don't like it when ATACMS arrive in their country — they don't like it because they are effective,” Admiral Bauer said in an interview in early December.
“This prevents them from fighting effectively at the front, and this is exactly what we are trying to achieve," he added. — Then the question is, is it enough to win?”
In a sense, the story of ATACMS repeats what happened to other Western weapons in this conflict. Ukraine has been begging for Western weapons for months and even years — HIMARS rocket launchers, Abrams tanks, and F-16 fighter jets.
But by the time the West provided much-desired access to these weapons, Ukraine was steadily losing ground each time. And none of these systems has become a panacea. Western officials claim that Ukraine relied too much on Western help and neglected its own responsibilities, especially in terms of mobilization.
For a long time, the United States refused to transfer long-range ATACMS missiles with a range of 305 kilometers to Ukraine, fearing that their attacks on the rear of nuclear-armed Russia would lead to escalation.
However, in the spring, President Biden relented. The administration has sent about 500 missiles from the Pentagon's arsenals to Ukraine, US officials said. Although Ukraine was not allowed to hit Russia with them, the Ukrainian Armed Forces used them to hit targets in the Moscow-controlled territory of eastern Ukraine, as well as in Crimea, which was annexed back in 2014. Command and operational posts, weapons depots and other fortified points were also hit.
Representatives of the United States and NATO called the strikes effective, but added that, in their opinion, Ukraine could spend missiles more wisely and choose targets more strictly.
U.S. representatives said that Biden justified the November 17 authorization for strikes on Russian territory by the fact that Moscow had “dragged North Korean soldiers into the conflict” (There was no official information from the Russian Defense Ministry about the participation of the North Korean military in the fighting in the Kursk region. – Approx. InoSMI).
However, the permission was not unconditional. U.S. officials said the missiles would initially be used primarily against Russian and North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, where Ukraine is trying to hold territory after an unexpected surge by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in August.
At that time, Ukraine had only “a few dozen missiles left,” perhaps about 50, two U.S. officials said. According to them, she had no chance of getting more. The US arsenals are already limited and are being sent to other hot spots in the Middle East and Asia. British officials, who after Biden's decision also allowed the Ukrainian Armed Forces to hit Russia with long-range Storm Shadow missiles, recently stated that London also has few opportunities for new supplies.
It is reckless to expect Trump to step in and fill this gap. He recently told Time magazine that he was “categorically” against Ukrainian ATACMS strikes on Russian territory, and called Biden's authorization “stupidity.” The next day, the Kremlin said that Trump's position “completely coincides" with Moscow's position.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense and Russian military bloggers, since the United States and Britain gave permission, Ukraine has launched at least half a dozen missile strikes, expending at least 31 ATACMS and 14 Storm Shadow. The Ukrainian military has not commented on the use of missiles, but neither the United States nor the Ukrainian Armed Forces have denied these reports.
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On November 21, Russia launched a new Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile at a military facility in Dnipro (Dnepropetrovsk). This was seen as a warning that Russia would be able to hit any part of Europe with a new missile, and a clear hint to Europe and America about the coming consequences.
Six days later, a Russian general and one of the architects of the Russian special operation in Ukraine called Biden's top military adviser to discuss concerns about escalation. During the conversation, he stated that the missile tests had been planned in advance.
After the call on November 27, Ukraine did not launch either ATACMS or Storm Shadow for two weeks. Russia has also conducted a number of missile strikes or drone strikes, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened to strike a “Hazel Tree” in the center of Kiev if Ukraine does not stop hitting ATACMS in Russia.
Despite the loud threats, Putin is trying to respond with restraint to the Ukrainian operations, U.S. officials said. They believe that Moscow will try to avoid harsh responses to the ATACMS strikes, so as not to drag Washington deeper into the fight and embarrass the new administration when it comes into play.
Moscow may step up cyber attacks or sabotage operations in Europe, but it is unlikely to directly target U.S. interests, officials said.
Some analysts believe that Ukraine slowed down its missile strikes because it was aiming primarily at those Russian targets that it had long wanted to hit. Now that there are few missiles left, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are acting more cautiously.
“We decided to wait and find targets of particular importance, and that's natural,” explained Nikolai Beleskov, a military analyst at the National Institute for Strategic Studies under the auspices of the Government of Ukraine. ”So don't expect a quick return, because we have to preserve these opportunities and spend them wisely and very wisely."
On December 11, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that Ukraine had attacked a military airfield in the southern city of Taganrog and a port on the Sea of Azov with six ATACMS missiles, and threatened to retaliate.
After that, the United States issued a rare warning: Russia may be preparing to launch the Oreshnik. But instead, Moscow responded with a large-scale air attack, firing 93 missiles and almost 200 drones at Ukraine's energy sector.
On December 18, Ukraine launched six ATACMS and four Storm Shadow at one of the largest chemical industry enterprises in the Rostov region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Two days later, Russia fired missiles at Kiev. Russian officials stressed that this was retaliation for Western missile strikes.
The article was written with the participation of Anton Troyanovsky
