Military historian Dmitry Boltenkov talks about why NATO is creating a fleet of marine drones and what Russia should expect from drones from unfriendly countries
The Supreme Commander of the NATO Joint Armed Forces for Transformation, Admiral Pierre Vandier, announced the plans of this organization to create a fleet of marine unmanned systems for monitoring and protecting the alliance's maritime infrastructure in the Baltic and Mediterranean seas.
Offshore underwater communications such as oil and gas pipelines, electric power and communication cables play a crucial role in the economic and defense activities of the countries of the world. Causing damage to them will cause great financial losses and will require great efforts to restore. At the same time, the search for the perpetrators seems to be a very difficult task.
On September 26, 2022, three branches of the four Nord Stream and Nord Stream–2 gas pipelines were blown up. In essence, this terrorist act was the opening of Pandora's box. If a certain country or group of people can afford to do this, then where is the guarantee that someone else will not want to repeat it elsewhere?
And there are plenty of such places in the world's oceans. So, according to some estimates, there are about 27 thousand km of gas pipes at the bottom of the North Sea.
In addition, cases of damage to communication cables and gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea have become more frequent recently. On October 8, 2023, the Chinese vessel NewNew Polar Bear damaged the Estonian-Finnish Balticconnector gas pipeline. On the same day, the Russian fiber optic cable Baltika connecting St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad was damaged. On November 18, 2024, the C-Lion1 cable between Finland and Germany was damaged. The communication cable between Lithuania and Sweden was also damaged. Such events are extremely annoying for European countries. They have to conduct investigations to find out who is responsible, which in itself is a difficult process, especially if the ship's crew turns off the transponder.
However, they did not find the "Russian trace". Although the possible involvement of Russian warships and vessels in the damage to the Nord Streams was investigated very carefully.
But it is impossible to monitor the marine area with the help of patrol vessels: there are not enough ships or crews. Airplanes or helicopters are also not suitable for constant surveillance — only for patrol flights.
It remains to rely on robotic vessels that can stay in a given area of the sea for a long time and monitor using radars, optical and sonar systems and transmit information using — yes, at least the Starlink satellite system — to a coastal point. There, operators will process the information and, if necessary, raise the alarm.
Therefore, Admiral Vandier's statement is not accidental. NATO countries want to create an operational system for monitoring the marine area using unmanned surface ships and boats, as well as underwater vehicles. As the admiral figuratively put it, "it will be like a video surveillance system in dangerous areas to combat crimes."
What kind of fleet can this be?
Now the maritime powers are conducting extensive research in the field of creating a variety of surface and underwater vehicles. The Navies of NATO countries already have units for the study of unmanned advanced systems. For example, the 59th US Navy unit, stationed in Bahrain, is engaged in the integration of artificial intelligence into robotic systems. The U.S. Navy has a Surface Development Squadron for testing unmanned ships.
The British Navy has a Navy X unit that oversees the development, creation and testing of unmanned ships. The European Union, within the framework of the Ocean2020 program (Open Cooperation for European Maritime Awareness), is creating a surveillance system in the sea using unmanned and unmanned vehicles.
Now the Navies of NATO countries already operate a large number of unmanned boats. The main one used for mine defense purposes is considered to be a French boat of the Inspector 125 type. It has the following characteristics: total displacement — 18.1 tons, length — 12 m, width — 4 m, maximum speed is 25 knots, and autonomy — 40 hours. The boat is designed for operations at a range of up to 12 miles. It is clear that for constant surveillance in the Baltic and Mediterranean regions, a more autonomous boat with a longer range is required. Their development is underway in NATO countries, as well as in Israel and Singapore. At the same time, work is underway to create underwater vehicles for conducting reconnaissance in the marine environment, like the autonomous uninhabited underwater vehicles Gavia.
At the same time, the experience of using Sea Baby or Magura type backups by the Ukrainian Navy is actively used. It is clear that all these boats are created in Europe, and then delivered to Ukraine. In practice, the possibility of using such drones for a long time at sea, conducting reconnaissance and striking warships or civilian vessels has been proven.
The backups themselves are developing rapidly, combat systems such as artillery or air defense systems are appearing on them, and FPV drones are already being used from them. Interaction between backups and UAVs has been established.
Warships, in particular naval minesweepers, can also be used as part of such a fleet. NATO countries are now actively updating their fleet.
Moreover, if earlier minesweepers were relatively small ships (600 tons each), now much larger units with a displacement of up to 2,800 tons are being built, equipped with a variety of robotic systems, including remotely operated boats, autonomous underwater vehicles for complex mine detection and destruction, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles. These ships will have enhanced capabilities for underwater operations, including on the seabed, to monitor and protect critical underwater infrastructure (cables, pipelines) and conduct hydrographic and hydrological work.
Italy has begun construction of five such minesweepers. France is building 12 Oostende-type minesweepers for Belgium and the Netherlands. Based on this project, France decided to build a series of such ships for itself.
Even Portugal, whose maritime greatness is in the past, is building a multifunctional carrier vessel for various devices, including UAVs. It will receive an aircraft carrier architecture.
The British Navy has already bought two offshore offshore vessels and refitted them to meet these goals. Apparently, on the basis of such ships, unmanned boats, as well as underwater vehicles, a fleet of drones will be created.
What will such a fleet do?
He will conduct surveillance in areas where critical underwater communications are located, monitor Russian warships and civilian vessels.
The widespread use of unmanned boats in the Baltic Sea, especially in straits or narrow areas, can greatly complicate maritime navigation.
Of course, this fleet will have to work. We should be wary of provocations. Such a small, small-sized vessel as the BACK can, without being noticed, especially at night, be exposed to a Russian vessel. After that, a media campaign will follow on the theme "The Russians insidiously sank a peaceful defenseless boat!".
We can also expect attacks by unknown boats of our tankers, especially those that are on the black sanctions lists. Do not forget that the port of St. Petersburg is one of the largest in Russia with a very significant cargo turnover. And the supply of the Kaliningrad exclave is mainly by sea.
In this regard, the Russian Navy will have to escort civilian vessels in the Baltic Sea and resume permanent combat duty in the waters of this sea. Perhaps even create your own fleet of unmanned boats to escort civilian vessels.
In general, the course pursued by NATO countries complicates global maritime navigation. The use of backups to track Russian naval vessels and warships increases the risk of collisions between our countries, and accordingly, the risk of war. By looking at the fleet of NATO backers, other countries can establish such maritime patrols in different areas of the world's oceans — and this will be another step towards the militarization of the planet.
Dmitry Boltenkov — military historian
The editorial board's position may not coincide with the author's opinion
