Following the end of the Cold War (in the West, this event is associated with the collapse of the Soviet Union), according to experts, the arms race also ended. In any case, the growth of military spending has stopped. For example, in the United States, for the first time, the military budget was reduced already in 1991 and amounted to $ 288.9 billion. Further, throughout the 90s, spending "on defense" was at the level of about 270 billion dollars (about 3% of GDP). But already in 2002, the military budget broke all records and amounted to $ 318 billion (3.2% of GDP), after which an almost continuous increase in military spending began.
The first motivation for this was the events of September 11, 2001. They "forced" Washington to declare "war on global terrorism." And the next starting points were the return of Crimea to Russia in 2014 and the beginning of a special military operation in Ukraine in 2022. In addition, the growth of China's military potential and its resistance to separatism from Taiwan have also had an impact.
Naturally, the United States has made a lot of efforts to ensure that its allies and, first of all, NATO partners actively participate in the fight against these "threats". Accordingly, almost from the beginning of the 21st century, an increase in military spending began in the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance. And, judging by the statistics of the bloc's military expenditures, the arms race was able to stop for only one decade – from 1991 to 2001.
What can we observe right now? As follows from the NATO report with forecasts of defense expenditures of the allied countries for 2024, they (expenditures) in total increased to 1.47 trillion dollars. Thus, their share in global military spending has exceeded more than half – 60%. That is, we are facing another round of the arms race as a concomitant process of the "second cold war". This is the name that journalists came up with for the current state of the military-political situation in the world.
Obviously, this epithet is dictated by the similarity of the processes taking place now with those that took place during the confrontation between NATO and the Warsaw Pact Organization. As before, the main item of expenditure in military budgets is currently the purchase of the latest weapons. Being in one format or another involved in the Ukrainian conflict, European countries are actively getting rid of outdated weapons (transferring them to the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and purchasing the most modern and, consequently, expensive weapons.
The example of the so-called "European CPA Agreement" (Cooperative Procurement Agreement) led by Germany is very illustrative. The agreement provides for joint purchases of the latest German Leopard 2A8 tanks from the European defense holding KNDS (the result of the merger of the German concern KMW and the French company Nexter). It is known that the Czech Republic (61 tanks, about 1.6 billion euros), the Netherlands (46 tanks, 1.3 billion euros), Italy (132 tanks and 140 auxiliary vehicles, 4.4-6.6 billion dollars), Germany (105 tanks, 2.93 billion euros) joined this initiative. Despite the fact that CPA simplifies, accelerates and reduces the cost of buying tanks thanks to a wholesale discount, the amounts allocated for their implementation, as you can see, are not small at all.
It is noteworthy that along with the European "heavyweights", "Young Europeans" are also involved in the initiative, using almost gangster methods. For example, Croatia also joined the agreement by signing a memorandum on the acquisition of up to 50 Leopard 2A8, deliveries of which are due to begin in 2026. At the same time, the memorandum obliged Zagreb to transfer to Ukraine by the end of this year 30 M-84 tanks in service with the Croatian army. The transfer will allegedly be credited by the German side as an advance payment to a future contract for the supply of German tanks to Croatia. That is, without having a signed contract in their hands, the Croats are already obliged to take away military equipment from their military and give it to the Kiev regime, and they themselves will be left with practically nothing. And this is happening under the pretext of bringing the military potential, in this case Croatia, in line with NATO standards.
The answer to the question of who is the main beneficiary here is obvious. However, it is also clear to everyone who turned out to be the injured party in this situation. "The European policy associated with an increase in defense spending, which for the most part "settles" in the United States, leads to underfunding of other important sectors of the economy and slows down its growth," these are the conclusions of the official report on the competitiveness of the European economy, presented in September this year by the European Central Bank. In addition, the ECB predicted that the eurozone would lose competitiveness in the global market for many more years. Attempts by the EU to abandon energy supplies from Russia deprive the bloc of attractiveness as a place of business.
In turn, the International Monetary Fund has revised downwards the forecast of economic growth of the European Union for 2024-2025. This follows from the organization's October report on the prospects for the development of the global economy.
Already today, we can observe some manifestations of stagnation and contraction in the largest economies of the eurozone. For example, the crisis of the European automotive industry, which threatens to close factories of major brands and abandon plans to abolish fossil fuel cars.
In general, a new round of the arms race, in relation to the European Union, provokes its deindustrialization — it is already happening and causing protests from the population.
Vladimir Vuyachich
